For the second straight day, we reached a record high at the airport as the temperature peaked at 84° a little after 2:30 PM. This broke the previous record high of 83° set in 2018. (The normal high for this point in February is 66°.)
The early evening surface analysis showed a wedge front stalled out roughly north of I-20. Ahead of that front, temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s. Behind that front, temperatures were in the 60s and below! This front is not going to make it this far south for tomorrow, though, which will allow Friday’s temperatures to once again soar into the 80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The record high of 86°, set in 2018, will bear watching.
Patches of fog will be possible in the morning, so be ready for brief disruptions in visibility during your Friday morning commute.
By Friday evening, though, the frontal zone will be moving through the area, yielding a much cooler weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to the upper 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. (68° is still a couple degrees above normal for this point in the year, though.) On Sunday, a few showers will be possible as a disturbance passes by overhead. We’ll run a few degrees cooler with highs generally topping out in the mid-60s in the afternoon.
Wednesday was a very unusually warm February day in the Lowcountry. The high of 86° handily obliterates the daily record for February 23 of 82° set in 2018, but today also marked just the fourth time since records began in 1938 that the high temperature reached 86° in February. Previously, this happened on February 25, 2018, February 16, 1989 (when the high was 87°, setting the all-time February record), and February 28, 1962.
We look to take another trip into the 80s tomorrow. While surface flow coming a touch more off the Atlantic may modulate temperatures a bit, it is still certainly possible we may at least tie the daily record of 83° set in 2018. Fog may be a greater issue tonight and tomorrow morning, though, with lighter winds making for more favorable conditions for fog development. This fog could be dense, so be ready for visibility restrictions as you commute Thursday morning. The slightly more onshore trajectory could also help spread sea fog inland later in the day, which would have a chilling effect on temperatures as well. As usual with our weather, there’s so many variables to watch, even when there’s no precipitation involved. But regardless, prepare for another absurdly warmer-than-normal February day.
We’ll be dealing with some showers on Friday as a cold front swings through the area. It’ll be one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures — the forecast low of 65° Friday morning is around the normal high for this part of the year — but those will come to an end with the frontal passage. The weekend looks great — mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures at or a touch below normal are in the forecast as high pressure builds across the area. Hope y’all get a chance to enjoy it a bit!
After an absolutely gorgeous day today, we’ve essentially got a repeat on tap for Friday as high pressure remains in control of our weather. Temperatures will once again top out right around 70° with low humidity continuing. Try to get outside if you can!
Saturday may actually run even a touch warmer, but increasing cloud cover will portend changes coming to the area as a cold front approaches the area Saturday night. Right now it looks to come through sometime Sunday morning, which should act to knock high temperatures down around 10° from the previous day. Even colder air will arrive for Valentine’s Day, but temperatures look to moderate back to spring preview levels as next week goes on. Overall, it looks like we’re going to end February on a warmer note, and that isn’t too shabby considering the pretty chilly stretch we’ve been in over the last month or so.
Our spring preview has one more day to go before a cold front comes through later Friday and knocks temperatures down quite a bit for Saturday. We’ll see rain chances head up as we head into Friday afternoon and evening, with even a chance for a rumble of thunder or two. Instability will be lacking, but the shear should be enough to support a couple thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day, though, with the best chances around dinnertime.
We turn much cooler Saturday in the wake of said cold front. We’ll see a brief round of clearing on Saturday before a coastal low develops near Florida and heads northeastward, helping to drive a wedge of cooler air southward and keeping a shower chance around near the coast for much of the day. (That being said, it will not rain all day at any one location, either!) Temperatures may not get out of the upper 40s on Sunday. The good news? No sub-freezing temperatures are in the forecast, thus there are no winter weather concerns.
Despite winds going back around to the northeast later Saturday into Sunday, we’re far enough removed from the perigean spring tide where coastal flooding doesn’t look to be a concern for the weekend. It’s been an active year for coastal flooding already, with 11 events in 2022 so far, and we’re just into February 3rd. This already beats 1998’s total of ten coastal flooding events in that year’s first two months.
Well, here we are getting into the weekend with another storm system primed to affect the area. Overcast skies will be the rule for much of Friday as showers develop in the afternoon on the periphery of offshore low pressure. Temperatures will only top out around 50-51° given the lack of sunshine and northerly component to the wind.
As we get into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning, showers could give way to some snow flurries as colder air punches into the area. I always urge caution with cold-chasing-moisture scenarios like the one we will find ourselves in, but as an upper low traverses the area on the heels of the surface low pressure system moving northeast, it’s certainly conceivable that parts of the Tri-County, especially along and north of a Summerville-Moncks Corner-Jamestown line, could see a period of snow. Flurries will be possible all the way to the coast and perhaps as far south as Edisto as we get toward daybreak Saturday. Accumulations, if any, will be quite light and confined to grassy surfaces, and travel disruptions are not expected. And yes, folks — there will be no ice.
While the risk for snow is still quite conditional (and, to be fair, may not fully pan out), the certainty in the forecast is another shot of Arctic air that will turn this weekend frigid. Temperatures will struggle into the low 40s on Saturday afternoon despite cloud cover scouring out, producing clear skies by the afternoon. Sunday morning is setting up to rival the coldest of the season with lows in the low 20s expected in the Charleston metro area. This is potentially pipe-busting cold, and you’ll need to make sure that pets, plants, pipes, and people are safe and sound Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any bit of light wind could bring the wind chill factor into the upper teens on Sunday morning, too. We’ll keep plenty of sun in the forecast for Sunday, but even then, highs will likely not crack 50°.
The good news is that we begin a sharp warming trend on Monday. As we get into later in the new work week, we may even flirt with 70° for a time. With that in mind, though, the large scale pattern continues to favor generally cooler-than-normal conditions in the eastern half of the US, so don’t change out the wardrobe at the first sign of upper 60s just yet.
Let’s start with the good news: Friday looks pretty good, with highs around 60° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Much of Saturday looks to be okay as well, with showers not expected to start until later in the afternoon/early evening. And then there’s Sunday.
After a couple slightly warmer days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives for Friday into Saturday. Highs will once again top out in the mid-50s both days despite plenty of sunshine. A freeze is even likely for most of us away from the coast on Saturday morning, too. By Sunday, though, high pressure quickly slips offshore and the southerly return flow turns the heat pump back on, sending us into the low 70s in the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. There could be some shower chances late Sunday, but the best risk of rain right now appears to be overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the front swings through. All in all, not a bad-looking weekend with a little something for both cool-weather and warm-weather fans.
Additionally, tomorrow should be only the second time this year that we will not have any coastal flooding concerns in Charleston Harbor. Water levels once again peaked just over 7′ this morning, making it 5 of 6 days so far in 2022 with some tidal flooding to contend with. (The one day there was no flooding? Monday, when the windstorm blew the tide out well below predicted levels.)
After some much-needed rain (and some lesser-needed hail) on Thursday, we head into New Year’s Eve with continued warm temperatures as a frontal boundary, which has caused some complications for the weather in the southeastern US this week, remains stalled well to our north. A shower or two can’t totally be ruled out Friday, but much of us should remain dry to close out 2021, and fireworks displays should be unimpeded as a result. Temperatures will once again head well into the 70s in the afternoon, and could challenge the record high of 78° last set in 1996.
New Year’s Day will remain quite warm with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should stay just shy of the record of 80° we set on January 1, 2021, but they will certainly get close as we remain within the warm sector. Saturday should remain rain-free for the Lowcountry with no appreciable disturbances to speak of to instigate shower activity in our neck of the woods.
The pattern will finally begin to change on Sunday as a potent upper-level system dislodges the stalled front and finally pushes it eastward. Expect showers and even a few thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be on the strong side given good upper-level support and probably just enough instability. Highs top out in the mid-70s owing to cloud cover and rain chances. There’s still questions on when the front ultimately gets through, but all indications are that the first Monday of 2022 will be significantly cooler than we’ve experienced in the past couple weeks! Hang in there, cool weather fans — almost there.
Record high temperatures will be possible Friday and Saturday as deep southerly flow pumps a lot of warm air into the area ahead of a cold front currently timed to get through here on Sunday.
We’ll start Friday with some patches of fog in the area giving way to a mix of clouds & sun. A sprinkle or two can’t totally be ruled out, either. The forecast high of 78° would tie the record high set in 1971, and a low of 59° would tie the record high minimum temperature set in 2012. We’ll certainly be on record watch throughout the day!
Saturday may also approach record warmth despite a little more cloud cover. The record high for December 18 is 80°, set in 2008. Once again, we may start the day with some patches of fog.
By Sunday, though, a cold front will be getting through the area, capping temperatures to around 70° with a scattering of showers becoming most likely from the late morning to early afternoon. Departing low pressure may kick up the winds a little bit, and could contribute to a threat of coastal flooding as we get into Monday. Thereafter, the next risk of rain arrives Tuesday as a coastal storm potentially scrapes the area. We’ve got plenty of weekend before we have to worry about that, though.
