Election Day will feature rain-free conditions, plenty of sunshine, and much cooler temperatures as high pressure to the north wedges into the area. This will definitely feel a lot different than the mugginess we’ve had for the past week-plus. You’ll want to keep a jacket around, too, as winds become gusty as the pressure gradient between the high building in from the north and Subtropical Storm Nicole to the south intensifies. Watch for gusts upwards of 25 MPH away from the coast, with gusts 30-35 MPH possible at the beaches.

The last total lunar eclipse of 2023 — and last one visible from the US until 2025 — will peak tomorrow morning just before 6am. The moon will be getting lower on the horizon in the western sky, but cloud cover should be sparse for eclipse viewing.

The full moon will also be a contributor to elevated water levels in Charleston Harbor with the 7:31 AM high tide, which is expected to peak around 7.6′, producing minor to moderate coastal flooding. This may have some impacts on the morning commute for folks traveling around downtown Charleston. Be ready to use alternate routes in case you encounter flooded or closed roads.

Mariners should take note that a Tropical Storm Warning has been hoisted for the coastal waters (not the harbor, yet) with very rough marine conditions expected to develop due to the aforementioned pressure gradient. There are no land-based tropical headlines as of this writing.

The weather will be generally quiet and comfortably warm for the rest of the work week, with temperatures running at or above normal for the foreseeable future as ridging develops in the Southeast. Northeasterly winds will keep temperatures generally in the mid-to-upper 70s each afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s will generally be comfortable, though we should see those begin to creep back into the 60s starting Friday afternoon as moisture return inches up for the weekend.

The only hazard we’ll be watching for heading toward the weekend is the risk for minor coastal flooding with the afternoon and evening high tides, particularly Thursday and Friday, as persistent northeasterly wind and the approaching full moon (Nov 8) will combine to drive water levels over 7′. We could see evening high tides approaching moderate flood threshold by the weekend, so stay tuned for forecast updates.

We look to get off to another foggy start Wednesday morning, at least in spots, as temperatures bottom out just shy of 60° in the morning. We may not see quite the density nor the duration that we saw Tuesday morning, but still, be ready to use those low beams and allow extra time to get where you are going. Once any fog burns off, warm advection ahead of a cold front will help temperatures get to near 80° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

The front gets through late Wednesday. It looks like it’ll get through mostly rain-free given limited moisture. Once that happens, winds will go around to the north and northeast and begin to bring some cooler air into the area. The persistent northeast winds will cool things down even further for Friday as highs only top out in the low 70s as cloud cover builds within a strengthening wedge of high pressure.

We’ll continue our warming trend on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that’ll come through later Wednesday. After starting around 50° thanks to clear skies and light winds, we’ll warm well into the upper 70s in the afternoon. We should see mostly sunny skies for a good bit of the day, with some higher clouds beginning to thicken later on. Rain-free conditions continue, and it should overall be another good day of weather across the area.

The only weather hazard of note will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 8:20 AM high tide. Right now, water levels are forecast to peak around 7.1-7.3′ in the harbor, which will be enough to perhaps close a couple of the more vulnerable roads on the Charleston peninsula (such as around Hagood and Fishburne as well as near the City Market).

Be ready to don the sweaters as the coolest air of the season thus far has arrived. This will be quite evident Wednesday morning, as many of us away from the coast could feel temperatures below 40° for the first time since early April. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will only top out in the low 60s in the afternoon.

Thursday will continue to run features well below normal. We’ll once again flirt with 40° in the morning. Temperatures in the afternoon should run a few degrees warmer as cold air advection shuts off and the airmass begins to modify with continued nearly-unfettered sunshine, but we’ll still only top out in the mid-to-upper 60s.

We look to return to the low 70s on Friday as temperatures continue to warm heading into the weekend. Copious sunshine will continue, though perhaps with a few more clouds dotting the skies than in the previous two days. Good weather looks to continue into the weekend, too, with temperatures warming closer to mid-to-late October norms (mid-70s).

A cold front will move through overnight, ushering in the first really solid chill of the season for the Lowcountry. Morning lows will bottom out in the mid-50s, while cold advection within a northwesterly breeze will only allow temperatures to rise to the mid-60s in the afternoon despite almost full sunshine. These high temperatures will run some 10-15° below normal for this point in October, matching the very cool high temperatures we experienced during Hurricane Ian at the end of September (minus the hurricane part).

The weather will take a turn more toward unsettled starting Wednesday afternoon as some upper-level energy well out ahead of a cold front helps to induce some showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Wednesday will start fairly mild with lows in the mid-60s thanks to persistent cloud cover. Winds will stay onshore, but despite this, we should still top out solidly in the upper 70s in the afternoon ahead of thunderstorms. It certainly seems that we may get a majority of the day in rain-free, with rain chances starting to head up around commute time.

The greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms looks to be after sunset through early Thursday morning. It’s likely we’ll get a good bit of Thursday morning in rain-free, allowing highs to top out near 80° in the early afternoon. Then, it’s possible that some showers may redevelop ahead of the cold front itself as its timing should coincide with peak heating. The front gets through Thursday evening, and by Friday, we’re starting out quite a bit cooler — upper 50s as opposed to mid-to-upper-60s — with highs topping out in the mid-70s under quite a bit of sunshine. This will set up a beautiful weekend of weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, though perhaps not quite as cool as mentioned yesterday. Still, though, mid-to-upper 70s remain below normal for highs for this point in October.

Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.

Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.

We’ve got another chilly start coming up on Wednesday morning as clear skies and light winds allow for good radiational cooling conditions. We should see temperatures take a dip back into the upper 40s by daybreak (away from the barrier islands and downtown, anyway). From there, a warming trend will commence as a pesky trough associated with the remnants of Ian (yes, really) finally begins to lift away from the area. High pressure will continue to build in from the west, and the resulting downslope flow will begin to help warm temperatures in earnest. Wednesday’s high will top out in the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into Thursday and Friday, with lows bottoming out in the mid-50s and highs reaching around 80-81° each afternoon ahead of a cold front which will swing through Saturday, sending temperatures well back below normal for this point in October by Sunday and the following week. No rainfall is expected; indeed, quite the contrary as mostly sunny skies will continue to dominate.

The only weather hazard of note will be the potential for coastal flooding with the afternoon high tides particularly Thursday and again on Friday (and likely through the weekend) as the moon turns full. Southwesterly winds will keep any coastal flooding to a dull roar Wednesday and Thursday, but we may see water levels creep well into minor flood stage, perhaps approaching moderate flood Friday evening. As the front gets through on Saturday, winds turn northeasterly, which is a very favorable wind direction for coastal flooding, so we’ll need to continue to monitor evening high tides through the weekend for additional rounds of coastal flooding.

If you liked Monday’s temperatures but would prefer more sun, Tuesday will have you covered. Skies are clearing as I write this post, and we will have a much brighter day ahead. More clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s across much of the metro area away from the immediate coast. The NWS forecast will be around 49°; if that verifies, that would be the first sub-50° low since it was 46° on May 10. Temperatures will rebound only to about 70° despite nearly full sunshine as we sit on the southern periphery of a deep trough of low pressure aloft and a northerly breeze keeps cool air filtering in.

The only potential snag in tomorrow’s weather will be the potential for a little coastal flooding with the mid-afternoon high tide. We might see some salt water coming out of drains around Lockwood Dr. as well as on Hagood and Fishburne near the Joe and Johnson Hagood Stadium. However, a widespread tidal flooding event is not expected.