Sunday’s forecast looks fairly similar to Saturday’s: We’ll start the day in the mid-70s and head toward around 90° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Heat indices will top out around 100-101°, with perhaps locally higher values closer to the coast. A scattering of showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible as the seabreeze presses inland, with heavy rain a continued concern with decent low-level moisture still in place. Ridging developing aloft will keep a lid on widespread coverage of showers and storms.
After what ended up being quite a hot weekend, we have a day or two more of advisory-level heat (maybe even warning-level heat in a few spots) before a front moves into the area and brings some more unsettled weather for a few days.
Not too much to write home about in the weather department for the rest of the work week — just more in the way of heat, humidity, and a slight uptick in showers and storms as we head toward Friday.
Air temperature-wise, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the rest of the work week with highs topping out in the mid-90s. However, drier mid-level air will mix down to the surface during the heat of the day, and this will help keep heat indices around 100-101°. (Not great, but it could be worse.) The aforementioned dry mid-levels should keep most, if not all, shower and storm activity at bay, though you can never truly rule any stray shower or storm out during this point of the year.
Moisture starts to return Thursday, and this manifests itself with a little higher heat index in the afternoon — approaching 105° — and a slightly better (but still low) chance of seabreeze thunderstorms. Friday could see a little better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms as heat indices top out over 105° at peak heating. (Remember, heat advisory criteria for July 1 and beyond is 110° for two hours.) Overall, there’s nothing in this forecast that’s terribly out of bounds for this point in the year — just mind the heat and be ready to head inside if a thunderstorm gets close.
Tuesday’s forecast looks relatively benign across the area as partly cloudy skies dominate thanks to increasingly drier air aloft. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the coast before highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should top out in the low 100s with low-70s dewpoints across the area. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out along the seabreeze, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.
Standard July warmth and mugginess will continue on Sunday. We’ll start the day in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, and we should get the first part of the day in rain-free. From there, we’ll start to see showers and thunderstorms develop by mid-afternoon and make their way into the area from the west and southwest throughout the rest of the evening. The strongest storms could produce strong wind gusts, while heavy rain and frequent lightning will be more widespread concerns. Be ready to bring outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.
Air temperatures return to more reasonable levels for mid-July this weekend as a trough digs in a bit more, nudging the ridge that had brought us quite a hot stretch back to the west. It will also improve shower and thunderstorm chances across the area starting Saturday afternoon. Granted, it will still be humid, and heat indices on Saturday in particular will head back north of 100°, but not quite as high as we’ve seen the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms should fire in the afternoon and evening as disturbances round the base of the trough. One or two of these storms could produce strong wind gusts. Be ready for rapidly changing conditions, but don’t cancel any outdoor plans, either.
Sunday could be a little more active as another disturbance passes by. It could instigate scattered storms by midday, but they’ll be more likely in the afternoon. Again, not expecting a washout by any stretch, but be ready to bring outdoor plans inside if thunderstorms approach your location. Highs top out in the low 90s Sunday with heat indices approaching 100°.
A fairly standard mid-July weekend lies ahead across the metro area. Highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s each day after starting out in the mid-to-upper 70s. The seabreeze will be the main instigator for afternoon and evening thunderstorms; as is customary for this point in the year, heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main threats, with gusty winds possible within the strongest storms. Severe or not, all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Somewhat drier air (aloft, anyway) moving into the area Tuesday will put an end to the soggy weather for a few days, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm does remain possible. We start the day in the low 70s — the coolest start to a day since June 28 — before warming into the low 90s in the afternoon. While the drier air will provide for generally partly cloudy skies amidst a somewhat brilliant blue sky, it’ll still be fairly humid at the surface; expect heat indices to peak around 100° in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves by. All in all, though, we should have plenty of sun to help sop up this latest round of heavy rain.
A cold front will move through and stall out nearby on Tuesday, allowing drier air to mix into the area. This will largely suppress cloud cover and will help drive temperatures to the mid-90s in the afternoon; fortunately, the drier air mixing in will also keep dewpoints reasonably in check, so heat indices will only top out around 96°-98° or so.
A few thunderstorms will still be possible very early Tuesday morning, but widespread severe weather does not look to be an issue. Still, there’s a small chance you could be woken up overnight, especially the further north you go.
We open the week with the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms, and get much warmer thereafter as we say goodbye to June and welcome in July, with the first heat advisories of the season possible by the weekend.
