We in #chswx continue to track two tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, Fred and Grace. Fred has opened up into a tropical wave for the time being, and is thus not currently a tropical cyclone, but is expected to reorganize into one and approach the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. Grace, meanwhile, is bringing very heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles this evening as it generally follows in Fred’s footsteps. The good news is that there are no immediate tropical threats for the Lowcountry and the rest of the Carolinas.

Pro tip: Mow the lawn Saturday morning, because we could start to see some showers and storms enter the picture in the afternoon as high pressure begins to weaken across the area. It’ll still be warm, but temperatures will be limited to the upper 80s by more pervasive cloud cover.

Why mow Saturday? Because Sunday is going to be a lot tougher to get that mowing in, and it doesn’t get better getting into next week. Showers and thunderstorms look to become a little more widespread Sunday, with on-and-off storms possible for a good bit of the day. As usual in summer, it won’t rain all the time, but when it does, a brief downpour or two could drop a decent amount of rain.

As we get into next week, a continued feed of tropical moisture and a stalled front will interact will keep scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly in the afternoons.

Friday gives us one more day of warm and mostly rain-free weather before the pattern turns back toward being more unsettled. Like today and the past few days, expect highs to top out a little over 90° in the afternoon, with heat indices in the low 100s. As always, a stray shower or thunderstorm can never be ruled out because, well, summer.

Our quieter weather pattern begins to shift back toward a more unsettled setup as the weekend wears on. Expect scattered thunderstorm coverage on Saturday, with highs topping out around 90° outside of those storms.

A front will sag southward into the area as we get into Sunday, stalling out over the Carolinas as Fred — forecast as a tropical storm — approaches the Florida panhandle (based on the current NHC forecast). The influx of tropical moisture with the nearby frontal boundary could spell some heavy rainfall at times across the area starting Sunday and into early next week. Stay tuned to forecast updates as the rain threat evolves.

Thursday looks to be much the same as the previous few days: Temperatures in the low 90s, heat indices in the low 100s, and mostly rain-free conditions (with the disclaimer that a stray storm can never be ruled out this time of year — ask Goose Creek and Summerville all about that today). High pressure continues its firm grip on our weather both at the surface and aloft, and this looks to continue for a few more days before a front and enhanced tropical moisture moving into the area ahead of Tropical Storm Fred begin to increase rain chances to start next week.

While we can never totally rule out a popup shower or storm in mid-August, high pressure both at the surface and aloft should put the kibosh on precipitation as we get over the hump and finish out the work week. The forecast is pretty standard each day — highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-70s (running closer to 80° near the coast, including in Downtown Charleston).

We certainly can use the drying time; so far we’ve had 18.04″ of rain this summer, a surplus of just over 3″ (3.01″, to be exact). That’s good for 24th on record to this point. The summer of 1973 continues to reign supreme in the rainfall department, though, with 35.33″ recorded at the airport from June 1 to August 10. (It could always be worse.)

As we get closer to the weekend, we’ll see rain chances begin to head back up as deeper tropical moisture looks to work back into the area.

Tuesday promises another day of isolated showers and storms along and ahead of the seabreeze as highs top out right around 90°. Humidity will make it feel a little closer to 99-100° as the seabreeze moves past during the afternoon. Otherwise, there’s not too much to write home about as ridging of high pressure aloft and at the surface persists.

Mercifully, we are headed into a period of relatively normal weather for the next few days. Atlantic high pressure will build in at the surface, and subtropical ridging will move in aloft to click the pattern back into a more standard summertime configuration. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s each afternoon (though the humidity will make it feel closer to 100°), and the inland-advancing seabreeze will be the main focus for any shower or thunderstorm development. Not everyone will see rain every day, and it won’t rain all day at any one location. Just mind the afternoon heat and enjoy the relief if and when you get it.

So far, Sunday has run a little drier than previous days without a better forcing mechanism to kick off showers and thunderstorms. While a shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, most of us should stay dry today as highs head into the upper 80s. Humidity will make it feel closer to the low 90s, especially right in the wake of the seabreeze passage this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, and we should still see a decent breeze at the beaches throughout the day. All in all, not too shabby for the last Sunday in June. (Hard to believe, isn’t it?)

Typical June weather continues for Tuesday. Temperatures will head up into the low 90s in the afternoon as westerly winds keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast. We’ll want to keep an eye on an upper-level disturbance as it swings through; this could help a few storms to get going in the afternoon, especially if the seabreeze can make some inland progress. There will be enough instability to support storms if enough lift is realized, and dry air in the mid-levels could portend a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. So, we’ll keep an eye on this, but it is more likely than not we get through Tuesday rain-free in a vast majority of spots — good news as we dry out from this past weekend’s deluge.

Thursday is looking quite good with high pressure beginning to assert greater control over our weather. The periods of showers we saw over the past couple days will be a thing of the past, and temperatures will remain comfortably warm with onshore flow. After starting the morning in the 60s, expect highs in the low 80s away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s keep heat indices in check, making for a nice mid-May day.