It’s been a minute since we’ve needed to take a critical look at the Atlantic here on this site, but that does not mean things have not been busy. Undoubtedly, if you’ve been following the Atlantic season via the National Hurricane Center or other outlets, you are aware of just how active this hurricane season has continued to be. Let’s recap:
Hurricane Laura making landfall just shy of Category 5 status on Lake Charles, Louisiana, causing significant damage;
Hurricane Marco, which was fortunately not the initial punch ahead of Laura that forecasters had feared;
Tropical Storm Omar, which spent several days battling wind shear as it meandered harmly out to sea before dissipating
Now, we have Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene far out in the Atlantic, in addition to two areas being monitored for potential development over the next five days. One of these areas is well off of Africa, but the other is somewhat close to home. We’ll talk about that in a sec.
After a brief respite from suffocating humidity today — the overnight temperature dropped to 69°, according to NWS, the coolest since June 20’s low of 67° — we will see rain chances return to the forecast as the upper trough which has kept things quite unsettled remains in place for the next few days. Brief bouts of heavy rain will be possible once again, but it won’t rain all the time or even every day at one particular spot. As we get into the weekend, Atlantic high pressure looks to build back into the area, which will help tamp down the overall coverage of storms (and begin sending temperatures back upwards a bit).
We continue our midsummer heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances as we close out July and head into August. Temperatures will continue to run in the low 90s each day; heat indices will top out in the low to mid-100s in the afternoons before the onset of thunderstorms. After more isolated coverage on Monday, expect an uptick for much of the rest of the week with a little upper-level support getting in on the action. Some of you who have been on the “miss” side of the “hit-or-miss” thunderstorms these past few days will have plenty of chances to get a free lawn watering in the upcoming week!
After the wettest day since Dorian, a ridge of high pressure will usher in fall weather for a few days, with the potential for the first 40° readings of the season Thursday and Friday mornings. Then, a slug of tropical moisture will bring in another solid rain chance late this weekend into next week.
We’ve just got one more sweltering Augtober day left before a backdoor cold front swings through the area, cooling us off for the weekend. This will come with a little bit of much-needed rain, too, but don’t expect a washout. After that, another frontal system will usher in a little bit more Fall weather.
Our abnormally warm and dry September will roll into the first few days of October as strong high pressure aloft remains anchored over the southeast U.S.
Changes are coming, though, and I suspect many of you will be OK with them.
Fall fans, the news isn’t great: Above-normal temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future as a strong ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the area. A weakening front nearby will help kick off a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the area. This would be good — it’s been twelve days since measurable rain at the airport — but not everyone is going to get relief. Rain-free conditions move back into the area for the weekend while temperatures in the upper 80s remain more in line with mid-August norms than late September.
By the time some of you read this, the autumnal equinox will likely have passed (3:09 am), ushering in astronomical Fall. (It’s been meteorological fall since September 1.) Don’t tell that to Ma Nature, though. High pressure aloft is re-establishing itself, ushering us back into what is effectively a very summer-like pattern for the upcoming week.
We have a really nice weekend of weather coming up as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Cool starts will give way to comfortably warm afternoons with highs in the mid-80s and low humidity. Rain chances are nil, and we should see plentiful sunshine throughout the weekend.
So let’s start with the good stuff: Model agreement has continued to improve regarding Tropical Storm Jerry’s future path, and that path is toward recurvature way from the US East Coast this weekend. (Bermuda, which just took a pretty good whooping from Humberto, will want to watch Jerry with wary eyes.) But, for Charleston, Jerry increasingly looks like a storm about nothing. It is forecast to become a hurricane later today, but will encounter hostile upper-air conditions that will limit its further development, according to the Hurricane Center. This should preclude the stronger solutions and a more southerly track as seen in a few of the global guidance members that we discussed yesterday.
