By the time some of you read this, the autumnal equinox will likely have passed (3:09 am), ushering in astronomical Fall. (It’s been meteorological fall since September 1.) Don’t tell that to Ma Nature, though. High pressure aloft is re-establishing itself, ushering us back into what is effectively a very summer-like pattern for the upcoming week.

We have a really nice weekend of weather coming up as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Cool starts will give way to comfortably warm afternoons with highs in the mid-80s and low humidity. Rain chances are nil, and we should see plentiful sunshine throughout the weekend.

So let’s start with the good stuff: Model agreement has continued to improve regarding Tropical Storm Jerry’s future path, and that path is toward recurvature way from the US East Coast this weekend. (Bermuda, which just took a pretty good whooping from Humberto, will want to watch Jerry with wary eyes.) But, for Charleston, Jerry increasingly looks like a storm about nothing. It is forecast to become a hurricane later today, but will encounter hostile upper-air conditions that will limit its further development, according to the Hurricane Center. This should preclude the stronger solutions and a more southerly track as seen in a few of the global guidance members that we discussed yesterday.

Tropical Depression Ten strengthened overnight, having reached Tropical Storm status and the threshold to receive a name. The name most of us thought this system would get was Imelda, but a tropical depression formed quickly near the Gulf Coast yesterday and was named within an hour’s time. Imelda is already inland, so we are now watching Tropical Storm Jerry as it churns in the Atlantic, 960 miles east of the Leeward Islands (and a lot farther than that from Charleston!)

A warm start to the work week will give way to a taste of fall to close it out. (I mean, my goodness, 82° and fair skies on Thursday? Pinch me!) Plus, no worries about the tropics for the foreseeable future, either. Here’s a look at the week ahead…

The National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. This is a wave that has not yet become a tropical cyclone, but the probability of it becoming one is high enough for NHC to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama — exactly where they are not needed. If named, PTC 9 would be Humberto.

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather affecting the Bahamas for potential tropical cyclone development. This wave has been watched closely for the last few days, and probabilities for development have been rising. It now appears likely that we will see a tropical depression form in the next couple days. If it becomes named, it would be named Humberto.

The week ahead will continue to feature a late-summer heat wave, especially as we kick off the new work week. Temperatures in the 90s will feel closer to the 100s with humidity with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm to cool things off. Thunderstorm chances kick up as we head into the weekend as a tropical disturbance (more on that in a sec) is set to move through Florida, enhancing moisture in our neck of the woods.

Tropical Storm Dorian formed over the weekend, fighting dry air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. It has a highly uncertain road ahead of it, but it may be something to watch as we get into next week.

Welcome to the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins today (June 1) and lasts through November 30. This is the climatologically favored time for tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic basin (though we have had our fair share of May storms, including Subtropical Storm Andrea a few weeks ago). A fact of life of living in the Lowcountry — which is a really wonderful place! — is that we are susceptible to tropical cyclones, and as such, must be prepared for the possibility that one may approach the area.