We’ll run a little cloudier and cooler on Sunday as increased moisture and an approaching upper-level system come together across the area. There will be some breaks in the clouds from time to time to let some sun peek through, but overall expect highs to top out in the low-to-mid-60s. Rain should hold off until after dark when the best ingredients pass by, though, so you should be able to get at least a fair bit of Sunday in rain-free. If you’ve got outdoor activities in the afternoon and evening hours, monitoring radar trends for a few showers is a good idea, but there are no other major concerns with the forecast.

For the third consecutive day, we at least tied the record high at Charleston International Airport. Today’s high was 86°, which matches 2018’s record temperature. Changes are coming, though, thanks to a cold front which will bring this run of record highs to an end.

Temperatures on Saturday should run some 10-20° cooler in spots in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. The front itself will come through dry, but expect an uptick of cloud cover behind it on Saturday. Highs in the mid-60s will be common (and much closer to where we should be at this point in the year).

Unfortunately, this weekend doesn’t get in rain-free; expect showers to develop starting Sunday afternoon as an upper-level disturbance ripples through. Highs will top out in the mid-to-upper 60s across the area, though showers could put a damper on that later in the day.

Heading into next week, temperatures will remain around if not a few degrees above normal — though certainly nowhere near the record levels we experienced this week. All in all, above-normal temperatures remain strongly favored as we head into March, but never underestimate the power of one last March freeze to cause problems to start the growing season.

For the second straight day, we reached a record high at the airport as the temperature peaked at 84° a little after 2:30 PM. This broke the previous record high of 83° set in 2018. (The normal high for this point in February is 66°.)

The early evening surface analysis showed a wedge front stalled out roughly north of I-20. Ahead of that front, temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s. Behind that front, temperatures were in the 60s and below! This front is not going to make it this far south for tomorrow, though, which will allow Friday’s temperatures to once again soar into the 80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The record high of 86°, set in 2018, will bear watching.

Patches of fog will be possible in the morning, so be ready for brief disruptions in visibility during your Friday morning commute.

By Friday evening, though, the frontal zone will be moving through the area, yielding a much cooler weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to the upper 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. (68° is still a couple degrees above normal for this point in the year, though.) On Sunday, a few showers will be possible as a disturbance passes by overhead. We’ll run a few degrees cooler with highs generally topping out in the mid-60s in the afternoon.

Wednesday was a very unusually warm February day in the Lowcountry. The high of 86° handily obliterates the daily record for February 23 of 82° set in 2018, but today also marked just the fourth time since records began in 1938 that the high temperature reached 86° in February. Previously, this happened on February 25, 2018, February 16, 1989 (when the high was 87°, setting the all-time February record), and February 28, 1962.

We look to take another trip into the 80s tomorrow. While surface flow coming a touch more off the Atlantic may modulate temperatures a bit, it is still certainly possible we may at least tie the daily record of 83° set in 2018. Fog may be a greater issue tonight and tomorrow morning, though, with lighter winds making for more favorable conditions for fog development. This fog could be dense, so be ready for visibility restrictions as you commute Thursday morning. The slightly more onshore trajectory could also help spread sea fog inland later in the day, which would have a chilling effect on temperatures as well. As usual with our weather, there’s so many variables to watch, even when there’s no precipitation involved. But regardless, prepare for another absurdly warmer-than-normal February day.

After topping out in the upper 70s today, we’ll likely see temperatures breach 80° for the second time this year on Wednesday away from the cooler coastline as southerly flow around Atlantic high pressure keeps a very mid-spring-like feel to our weather in place. The temperature difference between the coast and just 10 miles inland could be pretty abrupt — highs may struggle to 70° at the beaches — thanks to the cooler nearby shelf waters and the potential for sea fog (more on that in a second). This pattern stays in place through Friday before a front swings through and cools us off quite significantly for the weekend.

One fly in the ointment will certainly be the potential for sea fog given such warm air over relatively chilly shelf waters. Short-term high-resolution guidance is in decent agreement that a sea fog bank could creep up the coast throughout the day Wednesday, lowering visibilities at the beaches and keeping temperatures some 10-15° cooler where fog hangs around. Southwesterly winds look to keep fog from penetrating too far inland, but that’s something we’ll keep an eye on as well for potential travel impacts. Sea fog will remain a bit of a wild card in the forecast through the end of the week, so stay tuned for tweaks.

Atlantic high pressure remains the main weather feature as we head into Tuesday. This will keep partly cloudy skies in the forecast and allow temperatures to warm well into the 70s in the afternoon. Temperatures will really begin to ramp up starting Wednesday as a cold front stalls nearby, with highs in the 80s expected Wednesday-Friday before the front gets through and cools things right back off for the weekend.

After the possibility of a few showers tonight, we’ll maintain rain-free conditions through at least Friday if not Saturday before the pattern turns cooler and more unsettled as we start to get into next week.

After a really nice, seasonable weekend, temperatures will climb back into the 70s again on Monday, with 80s returning to challenge record highs by mid-week. A cold front looks to snap us back to more seasonable temperatures for the weekend.

Precipitation-wise, there will be a slight chance for some showers on Monday as a coastal trough develops and brings Atlantic moisture inland, but we otherwise look to stay dry through Friday, when the front brings a small chance of showers to the area.

With such warm temperatures and cooler shelf waters, sea fog is certainly a possibility over the next few days. This may impact visibility and temperatures at times, especially near the coast.

No weather concerns this weekend as high pressure is the main weather factor across the area. Temperatures will run much cooler than they did today — for crying out loud, we reached 80°! — but will feel much more seasonable overall for mid-February. There will be plenty of sunshine in the area, but the cooler airmass keeps highs in the low 60s on Saturday and perhaps struggling to reach 60° on Sunday. Overall, though, it’s solid sweater weather without the rain gear, and that isn’t bad for a big SEWE weekend in the Lowcountry.

We’ll be dealing with some showers on Friday as a cold front swings through the area. It’ll be one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures — the forecast low of 65° Friday morning is around the normal high for this part of the year — but those will come to an end with the frontal passage. The weekend looks great — mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures at or a touch below normal are in the forecast as high pressure builds across the area. Hope y’all get a chance to enjoy it a bit!

After an unexpectedly wet Wednesday — the product of strong convergence within a moist onshore flow — we’ll turn warmer for Thursday as winds go southerly ahead of the front. Temperatures in the mid-70s appear likely by the afternoon despite mostly cloudy skies. A shower or two can’t be totally ruled out, but the feature that brought us the rain today will not be in place tomorrow.

As the front gets closer later Thursday evening, shower chances will begin to head back up from the west, with the best chances of rain generally around and after midnight into Friday. A rumble of thunder can’t be totally ruled out, but severe weather is currently not expected.

The front gets through Friday with additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm. We then cool off for the weekend, with temperatures returning closer to normal values (low-mid 60s) for this time of year.