We’re headed into the coldest night of the season in the wake of last night’s winter weather. Temperatures will easily drop into the mid-20s and even lower — perhaps scraping the upper teens in the northern part of the Tri-County — which will be our first real bout with pipe-busting cold so far. Make sure you’ve got a faucet running on a drip and your pets have a warm place to be tonight. If you’re traveling, slick spots are not out of the question tonight into tomorrow, so please be careful on the roads.

After that frigid start, temperatures will warm into the low 50s for Sunday afternoon. Certainly chilly, but downright balmy when compared to today’s high of 38°. We’ll have plenty of sunshine to close out the weekend, and that should help finish the job on any remaining ice issues.

Think warm thoughts and enjoy your Sunday!

Cloud cover will continue to break up as the day goes on, and yes, most of you should see at least some periods of sunshine before the day is out. Temperatures, however, will struggle to around 40° as much of that energy goes to melting ice and sleet accumulations. Winds out of the north will still be a bit brisk, with wind chills dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s at times.

Roads will continue to improve throughout the day, but traveling is still probably unwise until mid-afternoon at least as there are still reports of troublesome bridges and overpasses.

We’ll want to see the degree of melting and drying that can happen today into tonight. We’re looking at the coldest night of the season so far tonight into tomorrow morning, so the risk for black ice redeveloping is something we will want to keep an eye on as we head into Sunday.

Stay safe and warm, everyone!

Freezing rain will continue overnight into early Saturday morning as moisture streams across the area from the southwest and a shallow layer of cold air continues to wedge southward into the area. As of this writing, temperatures are at freezing at all stations inland of the immediate coast, with reports of ice covering vehicles, elevated surfaces, and grassy surfaces starting to come in throughout the Tri-County.

Rain will continue to fall overnight, and as a result will continue to freeze on contact. At this point, it’s best to be where you’re going to be until tomorrow morning as ice buildup will continue. Most spots should see at or below a tenth of an inch of ice accretion before it’s all said and done; however, high-resolution guidance continues to suggest a little bit more accretion, possibly approaching 0.25″ in spots, in eastern Berkeley County and far northern Charleston County.

Travel will become increasingly difficult tonight, and the risk for isolated power outages will continue. Keep a flashlight nearby and your phones charged just in case.

Freezing rain is expected to be out of here by daybreak Saturday. Slick spots could persist into the late morning and early afternoon, though, as temperatures slowly warm to the low 40s with gradually decreasing cloud cover.

Be safe and warm tonight!

Here’s a little weather whiplash for you: We got to 73° today at the airport. Tomorrow, we won’t even reach 40°.

A cold front is sinking steadily southward in our direction this evening, which will allow a wedge of Arctic high pressure to steadily build in from the north as we get into Friday. We’ll start the day in the mid-30s, warm up to the upper 30s, and then temperatures fall below freezing in the afternoon, all while light rain blankets the area. As the freezing line moves southward, so will the changeover to freezing rain, generally on elevated surfaces (including bridges and overpasses.) This freezing rain threat will arrive by Friday evening and stick around through early Saturday before low pressure departs and brings the stalled front with it.

It’s going to be hard to believe that we’ll go from near 70° during the day Thursday to a winter storm come Friday, but that’s what’s going to happen. We’ll spend one last day in the warm sector as the cold front steadily pushes eastward; by afternoon, we should begin to see some showers work their way into the area ahead of said front. Rain will turn more likely as we get into the evening hours, so be ready for a wet commute home from work.

Wednesday’s weather looks pretty good. Temperatures will start out right around freezing — be sure pets and plants are protected once again tonight — with a nice warming trend up to the low 60s as high pressure slips offshore. All this will be under mostly sunny skies, with a few more clouds today than yesterday.

The temperature rollercoaster will continue as we head into the rest of this abbreviated (for some, anyway) work week. Tuesday will be sunny but still quite chilly as the cold airmass that this weekend’s storm ushered in stays put for another day. High pressure slips offshore Wednesday, though, allowing temperatures to warm up into the low 60s in the afternoon with a little bit more cloud cover working its way in ahead of a cold front. That front will get a little closer on Thursday and could begin to spread some showers into the area into the afternoon hours, but should stay far enough west to keep us in the 60s one more day.

Then Friday rolls around, and the wheels come off in terms of forecast confidence. What is probable is that the front will keep some precipitation around on Friday, and temperatures will be significantly cooler behind said front. The NWS forecast highlights rain showers and highs in the low 40s for Friday as cold high pressure wedges southward. Beyond that, the forecast turns very tricky. Weather models continue to disagree on many of the details of what to expect this weekend, but the potential for at least a little winter weather is increasing. The GFS model has a double-barreled shot of mixed precipitation for Friday night and again over the weekend as it has low pressure developing near the coast and moving northeastward. The ECMWF (Euro) operational model generally shows the primary winter weather threat in the form of freezing rain on Friday night into Saturday followed by dry weather the rest of the weekend.

Suffice to say, it’s a tricky, tricky forecast with more questions than answers at the moment. There are many scenarios, including an all-rain scenario, that are very much on the table. I urge you to continue to monitor forecast updates throughout the week as the details continue to come together, especially with the potential for freezing rain to develop.

We’ll start Martin Luther King, Jr. Day out in chilly and breezy fashion as cold air moves into the area in the wake of today’s storm. Lows will bottom out generally in the mid-30s away from the coast, but gusty winds will make temperatures feel closer to the mid-to-upper 20s. A mix of clouds and sun will give way to fewer clouds and more sun by afternoon as high pressure continues to build back into the area. Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will still struggle into the low 50s as the colder airmass takes hold.

Rain will increase across the area by early Sunday morning as the potent storm system we’ve been watching for the last several days makes its approach to the Charleston area. 1-2″ of rain will likely fall before it’s all said and done Sunday evening. Gusty winds will be a concern especially as the cold front moves through, potentially bringing gusts 30-40 MPH at times especially on elevated surfaces.

Temperatures will remain above freezing for the duration across the Tri-County, and no winter weather is expected. The exact temperatures are going to be somewhat difficult to pin down as it will largely depend on how far inland a warm front can get. We could easily see highs in the low 60s at the immediate coast and temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s for much of the day around the Santee Cooper lakes and the I-95 corridor. Even though we’re now at the point where the highest-resolution models are able to resolve these features, it’s going to be really, really tough to say with much confidence exactly how the temperature curve will shake out tomorrow. The warm front will bear close watching.

Flooding is becoming an increasing concern for early Sunday morning as well. Water levels in the harbor are forecast to peak around 7.2′ with the 6:47am high tide, owing to strong northeasterly winds developing within the wedge as low pressure deepens to our west. Recent guidance suggests a non-zero possibility for a few heavy showers to be in the area around this time, too, so we’ll need to watch closely in case tides and rainfall combine for road flooding in downtown Charleston.

There is a non-zero risk for a thunderstorm or two near the coast during the day Sunday. However, conditions don’t look terribly favorable for severe weather in our neck of the woods. (There is a slightly better risk of severe weather as you head into the Grand Strand and southeastern North Carolina.) Of course, we will want to keep an eye on this, but right now this thunderstorm threat looks rather minimal.

Overall, it’s a tricky forecast day across the Southeast, but at least we look to escape wintry weather for this go-around. It’ll be a good day to stay indoors, keep devices charged in case winds cause a power outage or two, and watch some football (if that’s your thing, anyway).

Keep an eye to the Carolina Weather Group throughout the day tomorrow for updates on the storm, including for Charleston from yours truly, as it impacts the Carolinas.

A relatively quiet Saturday will give way to a somewhat turbulent Sunday as a potent winter storm brings heavy rain to the Lowcountry. Temperatures on Saturday will generally run in the upper 50s as cloud cover increases as the storm approaches from the west. We should get much of Saturday in rain-free, with the better rain chances arriving at and after midnight.