Unsettled — but somewhat cooler — weather continues this week, particularly Thursday into Friday as areas of low pressure along a lingering front as well as impulses around a persistent upper trough help enhance rain chances across the area.

Wednesday will be the driest of the set. As of this writing, the front is driving southward into Georgia, and should stay to our south for much of the day, keeping us in cooler and slightly drier air. While this won’t totally suppress the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, it certainly will keep coverage generally isolated to scattered at best for the first day of school in Charleston County. Highs will top out in the mid-80s, which should make for a reasonably nice day all things considered (though dewpoints around 70° will still feel muggy).

Rain chances begin to ramp up late Wednesday night into Thursday as surface low pressure moves along the front, drawing the boundary a little more north. At the same time, the trough aloft pivots enough to put us in the right entrance region of a jet streak, helping to enhance lift. This combination will make for an unsettled Thursday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected across the area. Heavy rain will be a concern, and we’ll need to keep a close watch for isolated flooding potential. The widespread rain and onshore flow just behind the stalled front should keep Thursday’s high temperatures suppressed to the low 80s.

Friday will run a touch warmer (mid-80s) with a little less coverage of storms to start the day, but showers and thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon after mixing some daytime heating in along with the specter of additional disturbances rounding the base of the upper trough and the persistent stalled front. Heavy rain will once again be a concern with the strongest storms.

This unsettled pattern looks to persist into the weekend as the front continues to meander and weaken, while temperatures turn warmer, closer to mid-August norms.

Tuesday will begin a stretch of unsettled days across the Lowcountry as a cold front moves into the area and stalls out. This will help kick off showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with some heavy rain possible at times in the strongest storms. There are some indications in the high-resolution ensemble guidance that we could see heavy rain near the coast later in the evening as the boundary approaches; fortunately, we’ll be heading toward low tide during commute time. That being said, be ready for a little longer drive home.

Highs will top out near 90° before the onset of showers and thunderstorms; mix in low 70s dewpoints and it’ll feel around 95-97°. This is right around normal for mid-August.

Wednesday could run a little cooler and a little drier as the front could sag south of the area briefly before meandering back northward on Thursday. Likely rain chances will continue through the end of the work week into the weekend.

After a weekend in which we felt the lowest dewpoints in almost two months, more moisture will begin to work back into the area as another front drives into the area and stalls out, leading to an unsettled back-to-school week across the Lowcountry.

We’ve got one more cool start to the day on Monday as lows bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s away from the coast, but that’ll quickly give way to low 90s in the afternoon. Much of the day remains dry, but we’ll want to keep an eye on what takes place to our northwest as the aforementioned front, along with some upper-level help, drives a cluster of showers and thunderstorms through the western Carolinas during the day. It’s possible that it could hold together to bring us some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the late evening as it migrates southeastward. A few storms could be severe especially along and west of I-95, too. It’s not a slam dunk, but certainly worth watching.

Rain becomes more likely heading into Tuesday as the front arrives and stalls out. A wave of low pressure along the front should enhance shower and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon. There will be plenty of moisture to wring out a fair bit of rain out of the heaviest storms, so we’ll be watching closely for the potential for localized flooding concerns. This setup continues through the rest of the week as the front will continue to meander around the area, occasionally with a wave of low pressure traversing it to help enhance those rain chances a bit more at times. (Stay tuned for day-to-day adjustments to these — stalled fronts are fickle beasts.) Temperatures will generally run in the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoons, tempered by rain chances and cloud cover.

A pretty good-looking mid-August weekend is inbound as cooler and drier air works in behind a cold front. After a rather nice start to the day with lows bottoming out in the upper 60s, temperatures will generally warm into the mid-80s each afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Expect Saturday to feel a little more humid than Sunday; Sunday’s dewpoints will mix out to the low 60s in the afternoon, making for an excellent day to head out to events like the Sunday Brunch Farmers Market or Second Sunday on King Street.

The reprieve from humidity and rain chances will be short-lived; we’re back in it by Tuesday. But let’s not worry about such things with such a nice weekend ahead, right? Enjoy it!

A cold front will push southward across the area on Friday, likely bringing with it showers and storms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. The convection-allowing models generally agree on some sort of linear storm organization pushing southward into the area tomorrow evening; the greater question is whether storms will fire ahead of it as well. I’d be prepared for periods of unsettled weather throughout the day, and be ready for another commute impacted by showers and thunderstorms. A severe storm or two can’t be totally ruled out, but the main concern will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Cloud cover and rain showers should help keep highs suppressed to the mid-and-upper 80s.

The front will move south of the area and stall out on Saturday, switching winds around to the northeast and beginning to usher in some cooler and drier air the likes of which we haven’t seen since late June. Dewpoints will fall into the mid-60s and cloud cover will scour out somewhat. However, there’s still a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a wave of low pressure develops along the front. If that wave develops nearby (as tonight’s NAM 3km suggests), it could spread some moisture ashore. That aside, Saturday should actually feel really terrific, especially further inland. Same for Sunday, where partly cloudy skies and mid-60s dewpoints will persist, making for another comfortably warm day across the Lowcountry.

Onshore winds and the recent full moon at perigee could contribute to water levels approaching minor flood stage with the Saturday evening high tide. So far, I’m not expecting any major tidal flooding issues, but it always bears watching with northeasterly wind directions near a full moon.

After a relatively quiet Tuesday, we’ll start to see rain chances trend back up starting Wednesday as a trough develops aloft and a cold front presses southward, which will eventually stall out somewhere in the area over the weekend. We still stay quite warm Wednesday into Thursday as highs top out in the low 90s and heat indices top out in the low 100s. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should develop along the seabreeze in the early afternoon and move inland as the day progresses. Same deal for Thursday, though we could see some additional coverage sprout up as the trough digs in a bit more down the East Coast and the front starts to drive southward a little more. By Friday, the front will be getting closer, and this will instigate greater shower and storm coverage as a result. Temperatures will also run a little cooler — by cooler, I mean upper 80s instead of low 90s — thanks to the more widespread cloud cover and rain coverage.

Heading into the weekend, we look to stay unsettled for at least part of Saturday, but drier air will be punching into the area. We should see a taste of mid-60s dewpoints starting Saturday afternoon, leading into what should be a rather gorgeous (by mid-August standards) Sunday. Fingers crossed these trends in the models continue — typically, it is still tough to get fronts this far south at this point in August, but then again, July’s deluge courtesy of southward-pushing fronts showed us that this hasn’t been a very typical summer. Stay tuned.

Standard warm & muggy August weather will continue this week with an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage coming thanks to a stalling cold front.

Monday looks to remain somewhat on the unsettled side as a mid-level feature known as a TUTT (tropical upper-tropospheric trough — say that five times fast!) continues to whirl into the area. This should help kick off some isolated to scattered showers and storms to start the day near the coast. Eventually, we should see the seabreeze begin to push inland, and along with it, more isolated to scattered showers and storms, with rain chances moving westward with time. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in the afternoon; heat indices will approach 100°.

Expect additional seabreeze-driven showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs topping out in the low 90s each afternoon. Storm coverage ratchets up a little beginning Thursday afternoon as a front approaches the area; scattered to numerous storms are possible Friday with the aforementioned cold front approaching the area. We’ll stay unsettled into the weekend, with high temperatures trending down a little further into the 80s in the afternoons thanks to onshore flow and scattered storms.

The severe weather risk this week is low, but an isolated strong or severe storm can never be totally ruled out at this point in the year. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns from thunderstorms, and slow storm motions at times may produce areas of isolated flooding. All in all, nothing terribly out of the ordinary for early-to-mid-August — just make sure the rain gear is close and that your outdoor activities have indoor backup plans.

Atlantic high pressure keeps us appropriately warm and muggy by early August standards for tomorrow into the weekend. Onshore flow will help air temperatures run in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, while humidity will make it feel closer to the upper 90s and low 100s.

The aforementioned onshore flow keeps a chance of showers in the forecast Friday morning closer to the coast. Rain chances will migrate inland with time, with a few thunderstorms possible as the seabreeze pushes inland across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Saturday’s setup looks similar, too, though the NAM nest is a little less excited about morning showers. Sunday could be a little more active as what looks like a weak TUTT (tropical upper-tropospheric trough) whirls into the area from the east, helping to enhance shower and storm coverage across the area. Overall, the risk for severe weather remains low, but as always, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. When thunder roars, go indoors!

More warm and humid weather is on tap for Tuesday as air temperatures once again peak in the mid-90s after starting out in the mid-70s away from the warmer coastline. Mix in humidity and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s, especially as the seabreeze passes by in the afternoon. Rain-wise, it looks to be a fairly typical summer day. We could contend with a few showers in the morning near the coast, with primarily seabreeze-driven isolated shower and storm coverage in the afternoon. Storms will be able to produce some heavy rain and maybe a few strong wind gusts, but severe weather isn’t anticipated.

We could see a little better storm coverage on Wednesday before high pressure rebuilds later in the week. Temperatures will be trending down toward around normal for this point in the year as well, with highs around 90° each day from Thursday into next week.

We say goodbye to July and hello to August with appropriately hot and humid conditions for this point in the summer, though we’ll see air temperatures fall a bit as the week progresses, which will have a little downward pressure on heat indices primarily as we get into the weekend. We have some rain chances in there as well, particularly mid-week.

Monday will be the hottest day air temperature-wise as highs look to peak in the mid-90s, though some drier air aloft will mix down and bring dewpoints to around 70° in the metro area, keeping heat indices in check to around 100-103°. An afternoon shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but coverage should be sparse.

Tuesday could see a little more convective coverage as high pressure aloft begins to shunt southward a little, while Wednesday should be even a little more active as a trough approaches from the southwest and return flow from the Gulf establishes itself nicely with Atlantic high pressure retrograding eastward. Thursday and Friday feature more typical afternoon thunderstorm chances. Highs in this period will steadily head down, ranging from 94° on Tuesday to 90° on Friday. However, the infusion of humidity will keep heat indices in the low 100s through Thursday despite the lowering air temperatures.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the weekend, with highs stopping short of 90° expected Saturday and Sunday thanks to a little more in the way of onshore flow as Atlantic high pressure shifts a little more northward. This could also keep rain chances a touch higher, as well, but no washout is currently in the cards for the weekend. Overall, pretty standard early-August fare for the Charleston metro area.