Tuesday will be another steamy July day in the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s in much of the metro area, while the beaches and downtown may very well not get below 80°. Highs will climb into the low 90s; mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Unlike the past few days, showers and thunderstorms should hold off until the afternoon. As always, a strong storm or two can’t totally be ruled out, with wet microbursts a possibility. More broadly, though, heavy rain will be possible as precipitable water values remain around 2”, and ample amounts of energy will be conducive to lightning-laden storms.

We’ll stay in the 90s for much of the rest of the week, with heat indices approaching 105° at times. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will be the rule, with perhaps a little uptick in activity heading toward Friday as a front approaches the area.

We will begin to see the widespread rain that’s punctuated the first half of July draw down a little bit this week as ridging aloft nudges back into the area. We’ve still got a couple days of periodic showers and thunderstorms to come, with another round of morning rain possibly in the cards for Monday, but overall the trend is a little drier. Of course, this is July, so nobody wins — we trend a little drier, and so temperatures trend a little more upward as the ridge builds overhead. Highs in the low 90s will be common, and with stifling humidity looking to continue, heat indices should be well into the 100s and may breach 105° several times this week. (The heat advisory criteria beginning July 1 is a heat index of 110° for two hours, so that’s why there’s no mention of Heat Advisories right now.) When storms do fire, they’ll be capable of dropping some heavy rain. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected, but you can never rule out a microburst or two this time of year. Overall, fairly standard mid-July fare is anticipated. Stay cool as best as you can — remember, frequent shaded breaks, lots of water.

We’ll stay in a warm, humid, and occasionally stormy pattern this weekend as a trough continues to affect the East. Saturday will feature more typical afternoon thunderstorm chances along and ahead of the seabreeze, while Sunday could see a little more widespread activity thanks to a little mid-level energy traversing the area. Still, a total washout of the weekend isn’t expected. We’ll have breaks in the rain, and coverage will be such that, barring any mesoscale accidents that cause storms to build back on one another, they should be reasonably short-lived. And while you can never rule out a strong downburst this time of year, the risk for widespread severe weather is low. As always, though, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. When thunder roars, go indoors!

The troughiness and cloud cover will help keep temperatures down in the mid-80s. We may turn a little warmer Sunday, but air temperatures should remain sub-90°. Mix in humidity and it’ll feel closer to the low-to-mid-90s. Thunderstorms will, of course, have a moderating effect on temperatures.

All in all, it won’t be the best weekend for weather…but not the worst, either. A solid “meh” if you ask me.

After an absolute deluge last night, with some weather stations in the Summerville, Ladson, and Hanahan areas reporting upwards of 5-8+” of rain and reports of numerous roads and even some properties seeing flooding, we will continue with the risk for showers and thunderstorms for today into the weekend. Temperatures will be held into the mid-80s given cloud cover and nearby thunderstorm activity, which will be possible pretty much at any point throughout the day but particularly in the afternoon hours. It’s worth noting that it won’t rain all the time, either. We’ll undoubtedly see some peeks of sunshine intertwined in. When it does rain, though, it could be quite heavy, which isn’t good news considering how waterlogged many of us have become in this wet pattern over the past couple weeks. (In fact, the drought has been eliminated in the Charleston metro area.) The main weather hazard to watch will be flooding, but there will also be a low-end risk each day for an isolated wet microburst producing damaging wind gusts. Stay tuned to forecast updates throughout the weekend as the specific details of where it will rain exactly when are difficult to fully pin down until a few hours out.

Another front will be approaching the area on Thursday, and this will bring a renewed round of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, one or two of which could be on the strong to severe side with damaging wind gusts. The main concern, though, will be the potential for very heavy rain. We’ve gotten pretty waterlogged in the past few weeks, and continued heavy rain on top of it will lend itself to the risk of some flooding.

It will be another sauna day, with highs topping out around 90° and heat indices rising into the low 100s thanks to the continued stifling humidity that’s blanketed our neck of the woods for the better part of July. The heat and humidity should help fuel-wise for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

The rest of the work week will remain unsettled and turn even more so as we close it out thanks to another cold front moving into the area. Wednesday will maintain a more standard summer-like feel with highs in the low 90s and afternoon thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze. By Thursday, though, we’ll start to see rain chances head back into the “likely” category once again as the aforementioned front moves in and stalls out. This’ll stick around into Friday, with perhaps even more coverage of showers and storms helping to keep highs in the mid-80s. Heavy rain continues to be a concern with any storms that fire — the atmosphere remains very juiced up — and we’ll certainly see a lightning risk with storms as well.

High tides on Wednesday and Thursday evenings will once again be capable of producing minor salt water flooding in coastal areas including downtown Charleston. We should be okay rain-wise on Wednesday, but on Thursday, we’ll want to keep a close eye on where the heavy rain is in case it coincides with the flooding high tide. Regardless of where the rain is, be ready for additional Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

After an absolutely delightful break from the heat today — as of this writing, today’s high was 80°, putting us on track to break the record low maximum temperature of 81° set in 1972 — we return to a little more reality for Tuesday as the wedge of high pressure in place today breaks down and the stationary front washes out. Air temperatures will approach 90° in the afternoon, and with the humidity in place, it’ll feel closer to 100°.

Showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility throughout the day, with the best chance in the afternoon. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a few storms earlier in the morning, though, based on some of the high-resolution guidance. In particular, the HRRR depicts a cluster of storms moving northeastward through the Tri-County in the morning, and the NAM 3km gives some support to this idea as well. We’ll want to keep an eye on that for commute-time downpours. Otherwise, the seabreeze should do its thing in the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms a possibility along and ahead of it. Not everyone will see a storm, but where it does storm, there will be a risk for heavy rain considering the abnormally high moisture content in our little slice of the atmosphere. Lightning and maybe an isolated wet microburst will pose a concern as well, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Moderate coastal flooding will be a concern in the evening around the 7:47 PM high tide. Water levels could approach 7.6-7.8′ in the harbor, leading to another round of road closures due to salt water flooding. With any luck, the thunderstorm threat should be inland by this point, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday before another front approaches Thursday, driving rain chances up quite highly once again to close out the week. We’ll want to watch Thursday and Friday for the potential for another round of flooding rainfall, too. As always, stay tuned…

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to figure prominently in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. To start, we’ll continue to contend with the front that helped instigate today’s weather on Monday. Another bout of heavy rain is quite possible for some of us, which after 4-6” fell in some spots in the metro area today begins to seem excessive. We’ll want to keep an eye on a renewed risk for flooding on Monday as a result.

The front will wash out late Monday into early Tuesday, and as such, we’ll see a return to typical summertime form Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will top out near 90° on Tuesday and in the low 90s Wednesday, with heat indices continuing to run around 100=105° given the continued humid airmass in place. Shower and storm chances in the afternoons will remain a little elevated as a result of said airmass.

Another front approaches later in the week, elevating rain chances again for Thursday and beyond. This will have the effect of keeping temperatures at or below normal, but it is also possible we might end up contending with more localized flooding due to heavy rainfall a distinct possibility. Keep an eye on forecast updates as we head toward later this week for that possibility.

Another round of soaking, heavy rain is expected on Sunday as a front sinks into the area and stalls out. There will be a chance of rain for much of the day, but the best risk of rain will arrive in the afternoon and evening hours as thunderstorms look to erupt near the frontal zone as well as on other boundaries. Thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rain and a good bit of lightning. Minor flooding will be a concern given 2.3-2.4” precipitable water values — atmospheric moisture that’s very much on the top end of what we’d see this time of year. We’ll also want to watch closely around the time of the evening high tide (5:48 PM) for the potential for heavy rain and said tide to coincide, perhaps increasing the flood threat for downtown Charleston in particular. An isolated wet downburst could pose an issue as well, but the overall severe threat will be limited.

We should see temperatures run up to the mid-80s before storms fire; this, combined with mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints will yield heat indices around 100° in the afternoon.

Stay alert for rapidly changing conditions tomorrow, and be ready to find alternate routes in case you encounter flooded roadways!

Expect more in the way of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, particularly on Sunday as a frontal zone moves into the area from the north. Storms could fire as early as mid-morning on Saturday, but should remain scattered through the evening hours. Thus, outdoor activities should have a backup plan, but don’t expect to be washed out, either. Temperatures will top out around 90° with heat indices peaking around 105° with the continued very warm and moist atmosphere in place across the area.

Saturday evening, we’ll be watching for a line of thunderstorms to sink southward into the metro area. Timing right now looks to be generally around and after sunset. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be the main concerns with this line as it sags into the area. We could see some sporadic wind damage from it, so we’ll want to keep an eye on that.

Sunday turns even more unsettled as the frontal zone sags southward into the area and stalls out. Expect on and off showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. It probably won’t rain all day at any one location, but it’ll be a good day to favor indoor plans. Sunday’s evolution could be a bit conditional on how things go with the Saturday night thunderstorm line, so stay tuned for more specifics as the mesoscale details work out. Regardless, the expectation of widespread rain and the nearby front will keep high temperatures in the mid-80s. Mix in the humidity, though, and it’ll still feel like the upper 90s.