As ridging aloft breaks down and retrogrades westward, our weather will turn much more unsettled heading into Friday and the weekend. Storms will be likely especially each afternoon and evening, with Sunday possibly looking particularly stormy with a surface front pushing through the area. Heavy rain will once again be quite possible, as precipitable water values remain 2″+ throughout the period — a lot of water to wring out of the atmospheric column, to be sure. Excessive rainfall will be possible in the strongest storms. There will also continue to be a risk for sporadic severe weather in the form of damaging straight-line wind gusts.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will still head right into the upper 80s to low 90s. With a stiflingly humid airmass continuing in place, heat indices will once again soar well into the 100s, with max heat indices around 105° on Friday and 108° on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will keep air temperatures from getting too much further out of hand, thankfully, but this is plenty of heat as is. Remember to take frequent breaks in the shade if you’re outside during these hot periods.

The good news is that all this rain continues to erode the drought — much of the Tri-County area was in moderate drought on last week’s Drought Monitor, but today’s downgrades the area (particularly around the Charleston metro) to Abnormally Dry. The airport is still running about 4.62″ behind normal for this point in the year, but we should hopefully continue to dent that deficit this weekend.

We’ve got another hot day on tap Thursday as heat indices soar well into the 100s, perhaps approaching 110° in the afternoon. (Never mind the fact that the lows will barely get below 80° inland and likely will stay in the 80-82° range at the coast.) Once again, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the seabreeze, and we’ll be watching once more for the potential for a more organized thunderstorm complex to approach the area later in the evening, possibly bringing some gusty winds along with it. Overall, there will be plenty of fuel for any storms to work with, but shear remains light. Thus, if storms produce severe weather, it’ll likely be in the form of downburst winds. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rain could factor into any storm that gets going, too, so be aware of that if you’re out and about Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday will be another quite hot July day ahead of the usual round of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. After a very muggy start — lows in the upper 70s inland, probably not getting below 80° downtown and at the beaches — expect air temperatures to top out in the low-to-mid-90s across the area. Mix in dewpoints running in the mid-to-upper-70s and that’ll yield heat indices approaching 107° in the peak of the afternoon. You’ll definitely want to be taking frequent breaks and getting plenty of water if you’ll be outside for an extended period tomorrow. (Note that Heat Advisory criteria for July onward is heat indices at or above 110° for more than two hours, so while these heat indices would have garnered an advisory last month, they will not in this case.)

Showers and thunderstorms should once again develop along and ahead of the seabreeze in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be primed for a strong storm or two, with plenty of available energy for storms to tap into once the capping inversion erodes. Damaging wind gusts and maybe even some hail will be possible in the strongest storms, while all storms will be capable of locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Not everyone will see severe weather, much less a storm at all — coverage looks scattered at best. But if you do, it could be a good one.

The rest of the work week will remain quite warm and steamy as a tropical airmass stays in the area for the next several days. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature more typical summertime popup showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons while heat indices soar into the 100s both days (with 105°+ heat indices possible Wednesday). As is typical, a stronger storm or two can’t be ruled out, and given the airmass in place, pockets of heavy rain could develop, perhaps causing some localized flooding. We’ll also want to keep an eye on any disturbances that develop and ride around the periphery of an upper ridge that’ll be centered to our west; both the NAM and GFS seem to be trying to sniff something out along these lines for late Wednesday/early Thursday. Only time will tell whether this is legit or not.

We’ll see an uptick in shower and storm coverage Thursday and Friday as the ridge retrogrades a little further west and atmospheric moisture increases. We could see precipitable water values in excess of 2.2-2.3″ as we close out the work week, which would be a ripe atmosphere for very heavy rain in any thunderstorms that can develop. Scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms appears probable. Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-to-upper 70s, and heat indices probably running over 105° once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire.

In other words: It must be July in the Lowcountry.

As is customary for the Lowcountry, heat and humidity will feature prominently in the Independence Day forecast, with some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to cool some of us off. Before thunderstorms fire, we should see temperatures reach into the upper 80s to low 90s away from the somewhat cooler (but still quite humid) coastline. This warmth when combined with mid-70s dewpoints will yield heat indices in the low 100s for tomorrow. Be sure to get plenty of water and shady breaks if you’re outside for an extended period. (Don’t forget the sunscreen, either.)

By 1-2 PM, we should begin to see some showers and thunderstorms start to initiate along and inland of the seabreeze circulation. We’ll want to watch the 1-4PM period closely for the greatest risk for lightning to the beaches as there will be more than ample instability for strong updrafts to develop. (Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!) Places that get caught under a thunderstorm will not see it move too terribly much during its lifecycle; with precipitable water values at or exceeding 2″, we could see some pockets of rather heavy rain in a short time in some spots. Wind shear is nearly nonexistent, so severe weather looks quite unlikely outside of the potential for a wet microburst somewhere. Severe potential aside, lightning makes all thunderstorms dangerous, so please do move indoors if you see lightning or hear thunder.

The good news, though, is that the Fourth of July will not be a complete washout. We should see storms begin to clear the Tri-County by early evening as the seabreeze progresses inland, and fireworks shows should be very much go for liftoff. Have a safe and fun holiday!

After what ended up being Tropical Storm Colin absolutely drenched us yesterday, we find ourselves with some drier air beginning to punch in on the southwest side of Colin’s circulation. This will help tamp down — but not totally eliminate — the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as temperatures look to rebound into the mid-80s (pending cloud cover eroding, anyway). It’ll still be muggy, though, with dewpoints running in the low 70s.

Thereafter, a more typical summertime pattern takes hold for the rest of the holiday weekend. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90° will be common; mix in dewpoints in the mid-70s and it’ll feel closer to 100°. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with generally scattered coverage expected. A storm or two could be on the strong side with gusty winds on Sunday, so that’s something we’ll want to keep an eye on. Heavy rain will also be possible in any storm that fires up, and with precipitable water values generally returning to around 2″ this weekend, some localized flooding may be possible, especially in places that have been absolutely drenched over the past few days.

The bottom line, as it has been for the past few days, is to just make sure your outdoor July 4th plans have a solid indoor backup in case thunderstorms threaten. Severe or not, remember that every thunderstorm is dangerous because of the lightning it produces. (At least the tropical mischief will have long-since moved on!)

After some of us got a day to dry out, showers and thunderstorms look to resume possibly as early as late tonight as a disturbance aloft possibly spawns a little surface low in southeast Georgia. This possible low, if not the associated surface trough, will help to keep numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday and into Saturday as well. We could see storms ongoing Friday morning for the commute, so be ready to take it a little slower on the roads. Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary issues from any thunderstorms. The atmosphere remains juiced with plenty of moisture: precipitable water values (the amount of water you can wring out from a column of air) will continue to run very close to 2″. This moisture combined with ample instability will likely lead to some pockets of very heavy rain rates and a risk of minor flooding to go along with it. Also, it’s worth noting that high tide will peak around 10:17 AM in Charleston Harbor. Guidance does show some heavy downpours coming ashore ahead of and around this time, which could enhance the flood threat in coastal communities including downtown Charleston. With the prevalent storms and cloud cover, highs should top out in the mid-80s at best. It’ll be quite humid, though, and so heat indices could run up toward 90° especially if some sun peeks out.

Saturday looks like it could get off to a similar start as broad surface low pressure may be moving through the area during the morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms could then fire in the afternoon in the wake of the low depending on how well the seabreeze ultimately develops. Temperatures should stay capped in the mid-80s once again, owing to the unsettled weather that’s expected. Something tells me the details around Saturday will be refined some more, too, so stay tuned.

Sunday will be a little more summer-like in nature with more widely scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound from previous days into the mid-to-upper 80s.

After record rainfall today — 1.87″ of rain at the airport breaks the record of 1.54″ set in 2000, while stations in West Ashley picked up 2.5-3″ — more storms are on the horizon for the next few days as we remain within a very humid airmass with plenty of upper-air and surface features to help spur on shower and thunderstorm development.

Thursday looks to go similarly to the past couple days, though there may not be quite as much coverage as we’ve seen thus far this week. We could see showers and storms forming early in the day near the coast, with storms becoming scattered to numerous while translating inland with the seabreeze throughout the afternoon. With precipitable water values near 2″, we once again could see pockets of very heavy rainfall. The past couple days have seen a couple 4″ bullseyes, and I can imagine that will be the case somewhere again tomorrow. The severe weather risk remains very low given the very saturated atmosphere, but lightning and isolated bouts of excessive rainfall will make any thunderstorm dangerous. High temperatures will remain suppressed in the mid-80s, though the humidity will still be rather swampy.

After some much-needed rain fell across the area — with upwards of 2-4” in many spots near the coast, particularly around Mt. Pleasant — more is in store overnight tonight into Wednesday as a stalled front continues to linger in the area. Mid-level energy will traverse the area and should initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. We’ll want to keep an eye on the risk for waterspouts again in the morning, too, though whether it’s a repeat of today’s performance remains to be seen.

The front will eventually wash out later Wednesday, but we’ll still have plenty of moisture in the area and surface triggers in the form of a coastal trough and other mesoscale boundaries to help maintain solid rain chances Thursday and Friday.

The rain will continue to keep high temperatures suppressed into the mid-80s each afternoon. Thunderstorms will certainly act as a temperature disruptor, and as a result, the timing for places to reach those highs — if they’re reached at all! — could vary widely across the Tri-County.

Moisture looks to hang around for the holiday weekend, and it’s increasingly likely we’ll at least be dodging some afternoon thunderstorms for the Fourth of July. Will continue to keep an eye on this as we get closer, but for now, the advice is to make sure you’ve got a good second, indoor option for your Independence Day festivities.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a front sinks into the area and stalls out. A good bit of you should see at least some rain tomorrow and over the next few days as the stalled front continues to hang around with plenty of available moisture. Given the time of year, of course, not everyone will see the same amount of rain — some of you could see very little, while others may be crying “Uncle!” by the time the week is over. It all ultimately depends on small mesoscale accidents that are impossible to predict with more than an hour or two of lead time. On average, a half-inch to an inch of rain in spots through the end of the week looks pretty reasonable.

Showers and storms will keep us out of the 90s for the foreseeable future, too. Tuesday will run in the upper 80s, but we should see temperatures suppressed solidly in the mid-80s for the rest of the week with the ongoing unsettled pattern. It looks like we’ll keep elevated storm chances into the holiday weekend, too, so be thinking about a backup plan for your outdoor activities to celebrate the Fourth.