Tuesday will be one of the better weather days we’ve had in a while around here, just an all-around gorgeous spring day. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 40s and warm nicely into the low 70s in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dewpoints around 40° will yield a really comfortable day, too — not too dry, not too humid. Yes, it’s a workday, but with some of y’all on spring break, I hope you get to take advantage of this! Before you know it, we’ll be sweating buckets by merely stepping outdoors.
After an unusually chilly weekend, we’ve got a really nice start to the new work week coming up as cool, dry high pressure continues its hold on the area. We’ll still see a series of chilly starts through Wednesday, with lows in the mid-40s each morning. Highs gradually moderate through the period, peaking in the upper 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid-70s on Wednesday under plenty of sunshine. Winds on Monday will still be a little on the breezy side, with occasional gusts to 30 MPH possible.
Thursday will represent one more rain-free day with a little warmer weather as highs peak near 80°. Low pressure advancing northward out of the Gulf will help usher showers and maybe a few thunderstorms into the area on Friday (though a total rainout looks unlikely). The overall airmass turns warmer, with lows in the 60s Friday morning offering a sharp departure from the last several days. Highs top out in the mid-70s with shower and thunderstorm activity likely tempering warmth. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm remain possible Saturday into Sunday, though with far less coverage than Friday. Highs top out in the low 80s each day this weekend after starting in the mid-60s.
After a chilly, raw day across the area in which we tied the record cold high temperature, the rain comes to an end Sunday morning and we begin to dry out. Cloud cover will hang tough for much of the day, though we should get some peeks of sun late. One of the main weather stories for this Easter Sunday will be the continued chill; high pressure continuing to wedge into the area will keep highs in the mid-50s after starting in the mid-40s. If the NWS forecast high of 57° verifies, it’d be the second consecutive day tying a record cold high temperature.
The second weather story of the day will be the gusty northeast winds and the potential for major coastal flooding with the late night high tide. Winds will be brisk, sustained 15-20 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH at times, with even higher gusts possible at the coast and on the higher bridges. The persistent northeasterly wind will also drive tidal departures up over 2′, potentially pushing the 11:04 PM high tide up to around 8′, which is major coastal flooding territory. Fortunately, we’ll be done with the rain, and that will keep the flooding issues confined largely to tidal areas. Still, numerous road closures are possible late Sunday, and you’ll want to keep that in mind if you have late-day travel plans around downtown.
Well, this certainly will not go down as one of the better Easter weekends, weather-wise, as high pressure wedging into the area keeps temperatures well below normal for this point in the year while also keeping showers a prevalent part of the forecast. Don’t count on much, if any, sun on Saturday as scattered showers in the morning and early afternoon turn more steady heading into the later afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures really won’t move much — we’ll start around 51° and only head up to about 54° as a chilly northeast breeze and the rain reinforce the cold air damming regime that’ll be in place.
Showers will continue well into Sunday, but will gradually become a little more scattered as the plume of deeper moisture shunts offshore. The wedge will remain in place, but a somewhat thinner cloud deck and less rainfall should allow temperatures a fighting chance to approach 60° in the afternoon. It’ll be quite breezy — winds will generally run about 20 MPH with higher gusts, especially near the coast. Regardless, you’ll need rain gear for Easter sunrise services.
We’ve got one more warm day on Friday, but changes arrive in the evening as a cold front pushes southward across the area. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible ahead of the cold front (though no severe weather is expected) as said front moves by. Timing on the rain looks to be later in the afternoon into the evening hours. Highs will peak in the upper 70s and possibly touch 80° depending on when rain begins after starting in the mid-60s for one more day.
If you’re into highs in the 80s and rain-free weather, try to take advantage of Thursday because changes are in store heading into the weekend. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s, well above normal for this point in the year, before warming back into the mid-80s for the afternoon. (The record high of 90° set in 1967, thankfully, remains safe.)
Above-normal temperatures will continue through Friday before a cold front stalls out to our south. Wednesday will feature another partly cloudy day with highs running in the mid-80s once again as ridging takes hold aloft. The ridge will begin to slip a little and clouds will increase ahead of the next storm system on Thursday. Despite the increasing cloud cover, we’ll have one more day of highs in the mid-80s.
We start quite warm once again (mid-60s) on Friday before scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two advance into the area ahead of a cold front later in the day. The frontal passage is looking a little later now, so we should still see highs approach 80°. The front will then stall to our south and high pressure will wedge into the area, leading to a much cooler and wetter weekend in which highs will likely not get out of the 60s.
Lingering showers will clear the area overnight, setting us up for a much warmer Tuesday as winds go more westerly and clouds scour out. Expect highs to peak in the mid-80s away from the coast in the afternoon after starting the day in the mid-60s. These temperatures easily run 10°+ above normal for this point in the year, where the normal high is 74° and the normal low is 52°. (The record high for April 4 of 91°, set in 1963, mercifully remains safe.)
A cold front will be working its way eastward into the metro area throughout the day Saturday, but its associated rainfall will arrive in the late afternoon and early evening, sparing the Bridge Run. It’ll be windy; gusts 30-35 MPH will be possible especially heading into the early afternoon, and this may contribute a bit of a headwind at times during the race. After starting in the mid-60s, temperatures should head into the low 80s in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
A line of showers and thunderstorms will precede the cold front. It should be losing some steam with the bulk of the energy staying well north, but there is ample wind shear and should be enough instability for a few of these storms to be on the stronger side with wind damage the main concern. Some hail and even a tornado can’t be totally discounted, either, so you’ll want to make sure you have ways to get warnings tomorrow. These look to get into western parts of the Tri-County in the 3-5 PM timeframe, pressing off the coast by 6-7 PM with showers to fall for a little while afterward.
Once the front is through, cooler and drier air works its way into the area. Overall, Sunday should run about 10° cooler than Saturday with a lot more sunshine. It’ll be the pick day of the weekend for outdoor activities with comfortable warmth and low humidity.
