Tuesday will be another seasonably cool day under mostly sunny skies as high pressure remains in control at the surface with troughing aloft. After an upper-level disturbance passes by overnight Monday, skies will clear, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s away from the coast for Tuesday morning. Temperatures then rise into the upper 60s, with the potential for a couple spots to hit 70°. Overall, a very seasonable October day across the Lowcountry.
Showers overspreading the area Wednesday evening will continue for much of Thursday as low pressure moves offshore, allowing high pressure to wedge in behind it from the northeast. While rain chances taper heading into the evening, cloud cover should remain robust and temperatures on the cool side thanks to the wedge. We shouldn’t get out of the upper 60s, in fact. All in all, Thursday looks to be a good jacket or hoodie kind of day.
Clouds and temperatures will be on the increase for Tuesday as moisture begins to move back into the area. We start Tuesday in the low 50s before temperatures warm reasonably quickly into the low 80s by early afternoon. We should get plenty of sun for much of the day, though cloud cover will be thickening by evening.
Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.
Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.
The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.
We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.
Rain-free conditions come to an end Thursday as we should see some scattered showers from time to time courtesy of developing low pressure well offshore. We’ll get off to a much warmer start than the previous couple days, with lows across the metro in the upper 60s to around 70°. Expect a scattering of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, coming ashore within onshore flow. A few heavy downpours can’t be ruled out. Highs top out in the low 80s.
We’ll get close to coastal flood stage with Thursday afternoon’s high tide, forecast to peak around 12:41 PM, thanks to the increasing northeasterly flow, which tends to pile water up quite efficiently, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that in case some salt water works into the area.
We have another pretty day ahead for Tuesday (weather-wise, anyway). Temperatures start out quite nicely, with much of the metro starting in the low 60s. Some spots further inland could bottom out in the upper 50s, while places closer to the coast will generally feel warmer lows in the upper 60s. Temperatures head to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will mix down to the mid-50s except perhaps at the immediate coast, sending relative humidity values south of 40% once more. Overall, no complaints in the weather department.
After a fairly glorious day of weather Saturday, Sunday will make a 180° right back into more unsettled territory as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a cold front. A wave of low pressure will develop back in Georgia, helping to drag a warm front across the area in the morning. We’ll see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity possibly as soon as mid-morning, but the most likely time for rain will be in the afternoon hours through about sunset. Heavy rain will be possible, with the potential for rainfall in the 2-3″ range for some locations. Isolated flooding will be possible as a result. Additionally, the aforementioned surface low pressure looks to track inland of the area, and could enhance some low-level shear. If instability can develop — and that is a big if — a strong to severe storm or two will be possible, and there may even be a couple rotating cells. We’ll keep an eye on this, but the risk for severe storms generally remains low especially given the rain-cooled air. We start the day in the upper 60s, but highs only top out in the low 80s given the risk for widespread rain in the afternoon.
After this passes, it looks like we get off to a solid start to the work week (weather-wise, anyway), with mid-80s highs, comfortable low 60s dewpoints, and ample sunshine.
A cold front will slip offshore early Thursday morning, but we won’t quite be feeling it just yet as some showers and thunderstorms will still be possible as moisture lingers across the area during the day Thursday. Highs top out once again in the upper 80s before showers and a few storms fire. Instability isn’t great and severe weather is not expected, though some heavy rain will yet be possible at times. The best chance to see a shower or storm looks to be in the afternoon and early evening hours.
