Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.
Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.
Thursday will be another nice weather day across the area with a seasonable chill to start and comfortable warmth to finish. Lows will once again start in the low-to-mid-50s away from the warmer coastline, but plentiful and virtually unobscured sunshine combined with winds generally out of the southwest will help temperatures reach the low 80s in the afternoon, right on the nose for early-October climatology. Should be a nice day for getting out and about!
If you liked Monday’s temperatures but would prefer more sun, Tuesday will have you covered. Skies are clearing as I write this post, and we will have a much brighter day ahead. More clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s across much of the metro area away from the immediate coast. The NWS forecast will be around 49°; if that verifies, that would be the first sub-50° low since it was 46° on May 10. Temperatures will rebound only to about 70° despite nearly full sunshine as we sit on the southern periphery of a deep trough of low pressure aloft and a northerly breeze keeps cool air filtering in.
The only potential snag in tomorrow’s weather will be the potential for a little coastal flooding with the mid-afternoon high tide. We might see some salt water coming out of drains around Lockwood Dr. as well as on Hagood and Fishburne near the Joe and Johnson Hagood Stadium. However, a widespread tidal flooding event is not expected.
So first and foremost: There will be no hurricane this week. Quite the opposite, in fact: it should be a very nice week of weather, with a little something for everyone — sweater fans will love Monday in particular, while by mid-week we’ll be comfortably warm before a dry cold front knocks temperatures back over the weekend.
Cloud cover will be persistent on Monday (with a tiny chance of a shower), keeping temperatures perhaps limited to the upper 60s. Cloud cover should scour out by Tuesday as a warming trend takes hold under sunny skies. We’ll be in the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday and Friday ahead of the frontal passage. The front will be moisture-starved as it passes through on Saturday, likely only being able to yield an increase in cloud cover for the weekend, but we look to remain rain-free. Saturday looks to run a little warmer than Sunday right now, but both days should be excellent to get outdoors.
The only weather concern of note will be the potential for minor coastal flooding with the afternoon high tides. The moon will be at perigee (passing closer to Earth) approaching a full moon on October 9, which will help increase the water levels during times of high tide. Northerly wind directions will help keep these tides from getting out of hand, though as high pressure wedges southward over the weekend and winds turn more northeasterly, we may see some higher water levels. Stay tuned as those details work out.
Wednesday will likely represent the last really decent weather day across the Lowcountry before winds begin to turn much more breezy as Ian approaches the area starting Thursday. (A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect, too.) It’ll be a good day to bring things in from outdoors, check on your batteries, flashlights, and weather radios, and if in a flood-prone area, sandbag property appropriately if needed. We’re in for what might be a tricky few days…but it’s nothing we won’t be able to handle, either.
It’s gonna feel a lot cooler Wednesday, that’s for sure, as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds will turn northeasterly and be gusty at times, with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible, higher closer to the coast. Temperatures will start out in the upper 50s and stay cool, with mid-70s at best with thickening cloud cover ahead of Ian blanketing the skies. We stay rain-free thanks to a deep layer of dry air closer to the surface, however.
Minor coastal flooding will be a concern with the 10:07am and 10:17pm high tides as the northeasterly flow around high pressure to the north drives water levels higher. This could be enough to close a couple roads in the more vulnerable areas, such as around Gadsden Creek. Major disruptions to travel aren’t anticipated, however.
We’ll turn cooler tomorrow as a front gets through tonight. Expect lows to run a few degrees lower in the mid-60s (a touch warmer near the coast where water temperatures still hover around 80°). Highs will get to the low 80s under a mix of clouds and sun as high pressure wedges in from the northeast. It’ll be a good day to get prep work done ahead of Ian, which continues to look to produce impacts in the Lowcountry later this week.
We’ve got another nice-looking day of weather coming up for Sunday. We start the day a little warmer than we did Saturday — lows generally around 60° away from the locally warmer coast — but it’ll still feel nice and fall-like to start the day. High temperatures will head up into the mid-80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies; southwesterly winds will bring a little more in the way of humidity into the picture as well, but dewpoints in the mid-60s will still feel alright.
Sunday marks the beginning of a brief warming trend that’ll see us head into the upper 80s on Monday ahead of another cold front. That front should pass with minimal fanfare, though a shower or two can’t be totally ruled out Monday evening. This will set us up for a nice day of weather on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s expected.
We’ve got one more hot day in store for Thursday before the weather takes a turn for the fantastic for Friday and the weekend. Compressional heating ahead of a cold front will drive highs into the mid-90s for Thursday afternoon, perhaps approaching the record high of 96° set in 1990 at the airport. Downtown could very well tie or break the record high of 92° set in 1925, too. Mix in a little bit of humidity and it’ll feel closer to the upper 90s (though heat indices should stay south of 100° as the deep-layer dry air helps to mix out dewpoints to the mid-60s). There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening hours as the front passes by, but don’t expect anything too heinous as there’s still plenty of dry air to overcome for much in the way of active weather.
Tuesday will kick off a period of quiet and warming weather as expansive high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the region from the west. This’ll put the lid on much in the way of cloud cover, much less thunderstorm activity, allowing temperatures to approach 90° in the afternoon. Humidity won’t be terribly heinous, but will be enough to push the heat index to around 92° or so. Temperatures, especially highs, will run several degrees above normal through Thursday (which could approach the mid-90s) before a trough digs in to our north and drives a cold front through, which will make for a rather pleasant Friday and weekend of weather. (Not that I’m counting down or anything.)
A coastal trough will bring our first mentionable shower and storm chances in a few days for Sunday as a few showers and thunderstorms could drift ashore from time to time. While some of the high-resolution guidance has been awfully aggressive about rainfall amounts and how far inland measurable rain gets, generally expect the best chance for any showers toward the coast. An isolated downpour can’t be ruled out particularly if deeper moisture can make it ashore. With all that said, the rain chances are far from substantial enough for canceling any outdoor plans — just keep an eye out tomorrow in the unlikely event a storm approaches.
Temperatures will continue to run right around normal for this point in the year. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s across much of the metro (low 70s at the beaches) before temperatures head up to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints are forecast to approach 70° in the afternoon, and that’ll yield heat indices in the low 90s at peak heating.
We’ll see similar conditions on Monday before a ridge of high pressure asserts control at the surface and aloft. We’ve got a few hot days in store next week, with air temperatures in the low 90s possible mid-week as we reach the autumnal equinox and Fall begins. A dry front will usher in a shot of cooler and drier air just in time for the weekend, though. NWS’s opening bid for next Saturday: Low 66°, high 81°, mostly sunny skies, dewpoints in the low 60s. (Can we fast-forward?)
