Rinse and repeat: More scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast as we remain within a deep plume of moisture ahead of a large upper low. We’ll sit between that low to the west and ridging to our south, with periodic disturbances rippling through instigating unsettled weather. Temperatures will remain above normal, especially in the mornings as we bottom out only around 72° away from the warmer coastline. (The normal low for early October? 62°.) Highs top out in the low 80s with plenty of cloud cover and rainfall in the area.
This pattern will begin to abate as we get into the weekend with the upper low opening up and retrograding to the north, but isolated to scattered showers will remain in our forecast well into next week.
We’ll want to keep an eye on times of high tide over the next few days, especially in the mornings, as astronomical effects combined with onshore winds will drive tides into flood stage. Salt water flooding could factor into the tail end of tomorrow morning’s commute. Some showers look to move through the area overnight, but should be out of here before tides become a problem.
Scattered storms will enter the picture in earnest for Tuesday, perhaps as early as daybreak, as surface troughing combined with an upper low will provide the necessary ingredients for periods of rain tomorrow and for the next several days. Rainfall amounts should generally be light, but a few downpours within stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will reflect the rather soggy atmosphere in place; lows won’t crack 70° in most spots and could bottom out in the mid-to-upper 70s at downtown, while highs won’t top out too far above 80° given expected cloud cover and rainfall in the area.
No severe weather is expected, but we will want to watch for the potential for some salt water flooding around the 7:52 PM high tide as astronomical effects combine with onshore flow to raise water levels in the harbor. The 7:35 AM high tide, which is forecast to fall short of coastal flood stage, will still bear a little watching in case a downpour develops near Downtown around that time, but the flood probability in the morning is generally low.
High pressure moving into the Atlantic has pushed a coastal trough closer to the coast. Its enhanced moisture convergence has kept us a little cloudier than we might like today, with even some showers coming ashore at times throughout the day. A mix of sun and clouds looks to continue into Sunday, with a slight chance of some showers once again brushing the coast. The vast majority of us look to stay rain-free, and northeasterly winds combined with a little bit more cloud cover should keep temperatures down in the low 80s once again.
We’ll continue with dry weather on Tuesday, though dewpoints will continue to creep up and put a little more humidity into the picture. Temperatures will continue to run in the mid-80s tomorrow and for the next couple days before a weak front swings through the area later this week, knocking highs back down to around 80°. All in all, we’re good on the weather front — now we just need the seismic activity to chill.
The 3.3 magnitude earthquake many of you felt earlier this evening was centered just north of West Ashley. This was the first 3+ magnitude earthquake in the Lowcountry since 2014, and the strongest since a 3.6 quake near Sangaree in 2008. There were two other earthquakes beforehand: a 2.8 near Summerville at 12:49 PM followed by a 2.0 in the same vicinity just before 1PM. It’s impossible to know if there will be additional shocks, but these small quakes are a fact of life in the Lowcountry and happen somewhat more frequently than you might think; it’s rare to have one that is very well-felt, though. Something tells me Mother Nature just wanted something for the weather/earth science people to do given the quiet conditions. 🙂
Beautiful day ahead in the wake of a cold front which swept through last night. Cooler, drier air will filter in throughout the day, and highs should only top out around 80° as a result with low humidity and copious amounts of sunshine. Pretty fantastic.
This will begin a bit of a weather winning streak for us, with tranquil and comfortable conditions continuing well into next week. Enjoy!
We have one more warm and muggy day ahead with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front; once this front gets through tonight and into tomorrow morning, conditions will take a turn for the awesome to close out the work week and head into the weekend. For today, though, keep rain gear handy. It won’t rain all day but if it does, it could be briefly heavy. (At least we’re getting some sun this morning!)
Astronomical fall begins this afternoon at 3:21 PM — it will certainly feel a lot like this after today. Looking forward to it!
Periods of heavy rain will remain possible overnight into Tuesday as we remain within a little firehose of moisture funneling between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. At 5PM, the airport had recorded 1.47” of rain and downtown had received .80” with more to come. (It wasn’t as bad as Savannah, though, which has recorded almost 6” of rain just today, shattering a 136-year-old record.)
A Flash Flood Watch continues until noon Tuesday, though if wetter trends continue this could be extended further into the day. Of most concern is the 8:50 AM high tide, which may top out between 7.2-7.4’, already well within minor flood stage. Salt water on a few roads is a given; we’ll need to see what kind of rain is in the area Tuesday morning to determine whether additional water piles up on top. Either way, expect another soggy day with another 1-2” of rain in the forecast, with locally heavier amounts. Temperatures will once again be held down into the low 80s at best given copious amounts of cloud cover and rainfall in the area.
Salt water flooding will continue to be an issue over the next few days, with another bout expected around the 9:18 PM high tide Tuesday night and then again with Wednesday morning’s high tide around 9:31 AM. Keep attuned to coastal flood advisories from the National Weather Service.
Stay ready for scattered showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms today as the remnants of Nicholas, well to the west, sling some moisture our direction. Cloud cover will keep temperatures down in the mid-80s, but mix in the humidity and it’ll still feel like the low 90s. Watch for a brief downpour or two at times, but widespread heavy rain is not looking likely this far to the east.
Today will have a really summer-like feel to it. We’ll see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area pretty much all day, with the best risk closer to the coast (and Charleston proper) beginning late morning into early afternoon, then steadily moving inland with time. Not everyone sees rain today, but a brief downpour can’t be ruled out pretty much anywhere.
Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s. Factor in dewpoints in the low 70s and that will yield heat indices in the low 90s. Not terribly oppressive by Charleston standards (or even abnormal, really), but yes, it gets to wear on you by mid-September.
Dewpoints are headed up, and that will bring along a slight chance of thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, primarily along and ahead of the seabreeze boundary as it moves inland. We’ll start the day in the low 70s across much of the area before temperatures head into the mid-80s in the afternoon. It won’t be sweltering, but it won’t exactly be fall-like, either.
It’s worth noting that we could see some patchy fog in spots tomorrow morning. Be ready for sudden changes in visibility during the commute, and don’t forget the low beams if you do encounter fog.
