Sweater alert for Tuesday! We’ll start the day a little breezy and much cooler as a polar airmass takes residence in our neck of the woods. Air temperatures should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s away from the locally warmer coastline, but factor in the wind and it’ll feel closer to 30-32°. We’ll see predominantly sunny conditions throughout the day with just a few passing clouds at times in the afternoon; despite this, temperatures look to go no higher than the low 50s. Make sure your pets have a warm place to be tonight.
As we get into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, winds will come down and allow radiational cooling to develop, which should be enough to get us our first freeze of the year in many spots (with widespread frost elsewhere). Lows look to bottom out from the mid-30s away from the immediate coast to possibly some upper 20s well inland. (Areas around Lake Moultrie should stay a touch warmer thanks to the influence from the warmer waters.) You’ll definitely want to make sure pets and plants have a warm place to be.
After one more frosty morning on Thanksgiving, temperatures will moderate back into the 60s in the afternoon, where we’ll stay for a couple days before a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives in time for the weekend.
We’ve got one more mild day coming up for Thursday ahead of a cold front which will chill us out quite nicely on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures look to start about 10-13° warmer Thursday morning than they did on Wednesday, bottoming out in the mid-50s. There could be some patchy fog in the morning, so be alert on the commute for visibility drops. We’ll warm to the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon despite mostly cloudy skies — thank a little compressional heating and southwesterly winds ahead of the front for that. Moisture looks scant but a shower or two can’t totally be ruled out for a few of you; the NWS forecast has 10% probability of precipitation so if there is any measurable rain, it’s likely going to be very limited in scope.
After the front gets through, we have a couple days in the low-to-mid 60s coming up for Friday and Saturday before warming back to the low 70s on Sunday. Keep sweaters on standby for the first part of the weekend!
Tuesday is looking really, really nice with high pressure firmly in control of our weather. A dry atmosphere and plenty of sinking air will keep skies clear, and the airmass will modify just a touch to yield highs in the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon.
We may deal with some frost formation in the morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties. Cover up or bring in sensitive plants tonight into Tuesday morning. Other than that, though, no major weather concerns at all.
We’ll have our warmest and most humid day for another week or so on Thursday ahead of a cold front and sharp upper trough which should bring some showers into the area starting as early as the late afternoon through Friday morning. Temperatures for this Veterans Day will run a few degrees above normal thanks to southerly flow ahead of the front — expect mid-70s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s will certainly feel a little more humid than we’ve felt the past few days, too. Expect rainfall amounts to run generally on the light side, with a few spots possibly recording around a quarter-inch of rain on the high end.
One other good thing about the southerly to southwesterly flow that’s developing is that it should help put an end to this week of coastal flooding. The tide in the harbor reached 7.17′ this morning, allowing for some shallow salt water flooding to occur. It’s expected that tomorrow’s tides will stay below the 7′ threshold for the first time since this stretch of coastal flooding began November 3rd. (And good riddance, too.)
Tuesday is going to be an excellent weather day across the Lowcountry with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming nicely into the mid-70s in the afternoon as high pressure remains in firm control at the surface. We won’t start quite as chilly as we did this morning — the low of 37° today was the coldest since April 4, when it was also 37° — but it’ll still feel crisp with low 40s away from the warmer coastline.
We still cannot shake the risk for coastal flooding on Tuesday. Moderate coastal flooding is once again forecast around the 11:33am high tide, which should close some roads in downtown Charleston near the lunch hour. While a fifth consecutive day of major flooding is not expected, it is still well within the possibility that salt water could impinge upon major roads downtown, including the 17-to-61 off-ramp, Lockwood Blvd., and the areas around the City Market among other places. Be ready once again to use alternate routes. Fingers crossed that this is it!
Our weather takes a positive turn Sunday as the coastal storm moves northeast and away from the area. We will see some showers hanging around in the morning, but these will depart as the morning goes on. Expect the sun to begin peeking through by afternoon before sunset at 5:24 PM. (Don’t forget to set your clocks back an hour tonight!)
Temperatures will thankfully respond to the sunshine as well, with highs around 60° in the afternoon. (The normal high for November 7, though, is 72°.)
Winds will remain breezy, with gusts to 30 MPH still a possibility as we remain within a very tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east. Use extra caution on bridges and overpasses once again tomorrow.
There will be a risk for minor to moderate for tidal flooding Sunday morning. Water levels could approach about 7.5′ with the 9:34 AM high tide. Be ready for a few road closures, though certainly nothing to the extent that was seen this morning when the water level peaked at 8.44′, good for 11th highest on record at Charleston Harbor.
Saturday’s gonna be a meteorological mess, it appears. A coastal storm, which has been trending more westward in modeling, is expected to develop tonight and move parallel to the coast during the day Saturday. This is going to bring the potential for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds (with gusts 30-40 mph possible particularly near the coast), and a forecasted top-10 tide in Charleston Harbor during the morning hours.
High tide on Saturday morning is currently forecast to peak between 8.5-8.7′ in Charleston Harbor. This would be good enough for at least tenth on record at the harbor, and would be the highest tide since the water level reached 8.76′ on November 24, 2018. This will introduce significant salt water flooding across downtown Charleston, resulting in numerous road closures. It’s also possible that we will see road closures along Long Point Rd. in Mt. Pleasant and Harborview Rd. on James Island. The tide is forecast to peak at 9:40am, but with these events, there’s often a little lag, so it may peak later. Expect floodwater 2-3 hours either side of high tide.
Guidance continues to hit on the potential for rain to be in the area around this time of high tide, which could make the situation even more dicey. One other thing to keep in mind is that there will be a round of minor tidal flooding on Saturday evening, as well. Some simulated radar products bring some of the heaviest rain into the area Saturday afternoon, ahead of high tide. If it’s enough rain, we could be in for a long-duration flooding event. This will bear close watch throughout the day. The NWS forecast is generally for 2-3″ of rain across Charleston County, with somewhat lower amounts inland.
Finally, with the strong pressure gradient between developing low pressure to our east and high pressure to our northwest, winds will turn quite gusty at times. Gusts to 40 MPH appear possible on bridges and overpasses as well as the beaches. (It’s this strong northeast wind which will help drive water levels higher.)
Combine all this with highs in the low 50s, and well…you’ve got a perfect excuse to stay in on Saturday.
Thursday is going to have more of a mid-January feel to it as high pressure continues to wedge southward across the area, with breezy northeast winds, cloud cover, and maybe a shower or two helping to keep temperatures down into the 50s in the afternoon for the first time since early April. Suffice to say, it’s a sweater alert day across the Lowcountry!
The main weather-driven issue for Thursday, though, will be the risk for major coastal flooding around the morning high tide, which is forecast to peak between 8.0-8.2′ around 8am. If this water level verifies, it’ll close quite a few roads and make navigation around downtown Charleston unusually difficult. Salt water flooding could begin 2-3 hours ahead of the time of high tide, too, so be ready for some sporadic road closures even if your commute is on the early side. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for tomorrow morning between 5-11am. If the water level does look like it will approach 8′, the National Weather Service will upgrade this to a Coastal Flood Warning.
Another round of coastal flooding is expected with the evening high tide, which is predicted around 8:12pm and should peak around 7.3-7.4′. Minor to moderate flooding will be possible with this tide as well, though it won’t be nearly as widespread or severe as what is expected out of the morning high tide.
If there’s one bit of good news in all this, it’s that today’s tides underperformed guidance. This certainly is not a bellwether for lower-than-forecast water levels tomorrow, but it’s something to watch as forecasts for this event get calibrated over the next few days.
We’ve got one more really nice day on Tuesday before temperatures begin to fall back off into sweater weather territory. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.) Expect highs to top out in the mid-70s after starting around 50° in the morning with mostly sunny skies throughout. We’ll begin to cool off after Tuesday as high pressure wedges southward into the area; highs don’t get out of the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, and might not even crack 60° on Friday.
We’ll start Thursday much as we started today — a mix of sun and cloud cover with a bit of a chill in the air as lows bottom out in the low 50s. We look to end it with widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe, as a potent upper low and associated cold front approach the Lowcountry.
The severe weather threat on Thursday is certainly not a slam-dunk, but there are some concerning signals. First, there’s going to be plenty of wind energy available. A low-level jet of 55-65 MPH winds around 3,500 up looks to traverse the area in the afternoon and evening hours. This will help promote gusty winds throughout the day, even ahead of thunderstorms. Second, winds are veering with height, with southeasterly surface winds turning southerly and then southwesterly as you go up. This wind shear helps sustain thunderstorm updrafts and also can induce spin within stronger storms. Third, there is the potential for instability to spread into the area as a warm front passes by in the evening. However, instability is the biggest question mark given cloud cover and rain ahead of the storms, which often helps to tamp down on this “storm fuel” and, as a result, decreases the severe weather risk.
Ultimately, we will need to keep an eye on how things evolve tomorrow. If that instability does materialize as some of the guidance suggests it will, a few thunderstorms will be able to pull down some strong, potentially damaging winds. Given the spin in the atmosphere, a tornado or two is not out of the cards, either. Our best risk for severe weather appears timed between 4 and 10 PM, according to NWS, with the latter end of the timeline looking the most likely for SC. Stay weather-aware tomorrow and make sure you have multiple, redundant weather warning sources.
