We woke up to some fairly rude shower activity generally along and east of 17-A this morning as the front repositioned a little further north. Lift across the boundary within an enhanced corridor of moisture is keeping us in cloud cover and showers this morning. We could see another round of showers in the next couple hours lift out of Savannah into the metro area. Guidance continues to indicate a dry slot for at least a few hours late this morning into early afternoon, but then begins to advertise scattered showers (and maybe a thunderstorm near the coast) returning to the picture later this afternoon.
We could still see some peeks of sun throughout the day, but the best chances of that are going to be further inland, generally west of 17-A to the I-95 corridor. Closer to the coast, we’ll remain within a plume of higher precipitable water values and somewhat better forcing in proximity to the front, which will certainly make it tougher to get some sunshine through. Depending on the strength and timing of the high pressure wedge lifting out, this could make for another significantly cooler-than-normal day for much of the Charleston metro area.
By tonight, rain chances will spread further inland as the front begins to lift back to the north in response to a trough, currently found over the Midwest into the southern Plains, pushing eastward. This will increase rain chances markedly for tonight into Friday.
After a record cool day — Wednesday’s high of 77° breaks the record low maximum temperature of 80° set in 1969 — we’ll warm up by a few degrees for Thursday as more sunshine mixes in. Still, though, with high pressure wedging in from the north, we’ll stay cooler than normal once again.
The high pressure wedge will retreat a bit as Thursday goes on. This will allow for the seabreeze to help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, but we will still not have a ton of moisture to work with behind the front. Rain chances will steadily increase overnight Thursday into Friday as the front moves back north of us, increasing available moisture and instability.
A soggy pattern takes shape beginning Tuesday as a stalled front and an open pump of Gulf of Mexico moisture combine to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all of the time all day — will generally be on-and-off — but keep the rain gear handy regardless as when it does rain, it could rain pretty heavily. Some guidance is pointing to a particularly heavy slug of rain coming through starting tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours, which is certainly worth monitoring for the evening commute. Flooding is certainly a concern, and trends will be monitored appropriately, especially as high tide comes up at 5:06 PM.
Temperatures will be kept handily in check thanks to the rainfall. NWS has a high of 83° at best across the area. Depending on how “on” the rain ends up being, it’s conceivable we might not make it out of the 70s. Quite a contrast to last week, that’s for sure.
Stay abreast to forecast updates on Tuesday and throughout the week as we keep close watch on the potential for flooding rain.
Friday will be the hottest day of 2021 so far. Temperatures will soar into the upper 90s in the afternoon as deep westerly to northwesterly flow in the troposphere pins the seabreeze to the coast, keeping the cooler marine air at bay for much of the day. On the other hand, this will allow very humid air characterized by dewpoints approaching 80° to pool near the coast. When the seabreeze finally begins its inland trek in the mid-to-late afternoon, the highest heat indices will then be realized as this incredibly moist air moves across the much warmer air found over land. Given this potential, an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for the Tri-County area. Ridging aloft will put the kibosh on any shower or thunderstorm activity, so don’t count on that to bring any relief, either.
If it’s at all humanly possible, avoid exertion in the heat of the day tomorrow. If you must be outdoors, get shade and hydration on a very regular basis. If you begin to feel ill, move into an air-conditioned area immediately. If you feel faint and your skin is hot to the touch, that’s quite possibly heat stroke — a 911-worthy medical emergency requiring swift treatment.
High heat will continue through Sunday, and heat advisories for heat indices approaching 110° are certainly possible. Please take it easy!
We’ll trade the persistent rain of the last few days for a real taste of summer beginning on Thursday. Temperatures will easily rise into the low 90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in aloft and at the surface. The humidity will make it feel closer to 105°, which is as hot as the heat index has been all summer. Take appropriate precautions: Plenty of water, plenty of shade, and most importantly, look before you lock. One hot car death is too many.
Today will continue to feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this morning as slow-moving storms develop and move in from the west. Flooding will certainly be a concern wherever thunderstorms set up and rain for long periods. The next high tide will be at 12:07 PM.
It won’t rain all day, however; high-res models have this batch of storms eventually fizzling out by early this afternoon. Another round of storms could fire along the coast this evening, and this may drive additional heavy rain concerns before departing later tonight.
This will be our last day in the 80s until next week; the hottest temperatures of the season will begin Thursday and last into Sunday with highs well into the 90s and heat indices approaching 110°. (More on that later today.)
We’ve got a muggy and potentially soggy Tuesday ahead. While it won’t rain all day, expect plenty of shower and thunderstorm coverage to bring just about everyone some rain at some point tomorrow. Given plentiful tropical moisture, some of this rainfall could become quite heavy at times, leading to the potential for isolated bouts of flooding where the heaviest rain falls. Heavy rain will be possible possibly as soon as shortly after daybreak, similarly to today, as it likely won’t take much heating to start convection. We’ll want to watch the 11:18am high tide closely as high-resolution guidance suggests storms in the area around that time.
Temperatures will remain on the warm and muggy side. We’ll start in the upper 70s across much of the area, with 80° lows possible along the coast and in downtown Charleston. Highs will only top out in the upper 80s given the expected shower and thunderstorm coverage.
High rain chances continue into Wednesday before moisture departs and we heat up for Thursday and especially on Friday, which could be the hottest day of 2021 thus far if the forecast of 96° remains on track. Stay tuned.
We start this Thursday with temperatures already approaching 80° as of 8am. Highs around 90° look to be common before showers and thunderstorms erupt this afternoon.
Today’s setup could portend a flooding event in downtown Charleston this afternoon and evening. Westerly winds look to pin the seabreeze closer to the coast, and with a front advancing from the north, there will be numerous focal points for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Atmospheric moisture is readily available, with precipitable water values running over 2″ once again today (anything 2″ or over generally requires more scrutiny for flooding). Finally, we are in a king tide period, and this morning’s thinking from NWS on tonight’s high tide is that it will fall just short of the 7′ level at which sunny-day salt water flooding typically begins. (It may yet be high enough, though, to begin to produce some flooding on Fishburne and Hagood.)
Guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms generally should start to form between 1-3 PM. Storm motions will approach the coastline today, and with a seabreeze trying to push the opposite direction, this certainly invites concern about heavy rainfall stalling out for a period of time. The high-resolution model ensemble this morning once again paints a 30% chance of 3″ of rain in 3 hours across the metro area this evening, further lending credence to this concern. While this isn’t a slam dunk, it’s important to keep an eye on the weather today as impacts to the evening commute are certainly in the cards. More on this later today — stay tuned.
We look to have another wet day ahead, with some showers already popping up west of the Ashley as I write this. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will again be later this afternoon into this evening. There will once again be a chance for localized heavy rain, with a 30% probability of 3” of rain in 3 hours once again being indicated by the high-resolution ensemble data. Yesterday this bore out in the 17-A corridor headed into College Park, with floodwater on the ground for a few hours after the main rain event. Thus, we are going to need to watch radar trends carefully, noting that high tide will be coming up at 5:39 PM.
Clouds and rain will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal, with highs in the mid-80s expected across the area. A few peeks of sun aren’t out of the question, allowing temperatures in a few spots to perhaps jump quickly. Humidity will still factor in, though, and it’ll feel closer to 94-95° in the afternoon.
Try to stay dry and weather-aware once again today!
We’re starting today with partly cloudy skies and muggy temperatures in the mid-70s. This will give way to 90s ahead of the seabreeze this afternoon; heat indices will push 100° with low 70s surface dewpoints in place. Showers and thunderstorms will fire on the seabreeze possibly as soon as noon-1pm, which could portend some rainfall or lightning concerns at area beaches early this afternoon. The seabreeze will then make its usual daily inland trek, bringing the risk for showers and thunderstorms more inland with time. This will happen as a mid-level disturbance moves into the area, which will enhance the coverage of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. Some areas of heavy rain are certainly possible, with the high-resolution model ensemble painting a 10% chance of 3″ of rain in 3 hours across the entire coastal plain. This could lead to isolated bouts of flooding, so we’ll want to watch this closely throughout the day.
Rain chances will continue overnight into Monday, with the risk for heavy rain continuing throughout the day Monday. More on that later today as we get the daytime guidance package in.
