Friday and the weekend will feature another round of warm temperatures, with heat indices running 105-110° by the weekend, and a solid chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. We’ll start each day in the upper 70s — perhaps not getting below 80° downtown and at the beaches — before warming to the mid-90s each afternoon. Surface dewpoints running solidly in the mid-70s will yield heat indices approaching 105° on Friday. The weekend should peak even hotter, with heat indices approaching 105-110° each afternoon. Stay tuned for the potential for Heat Advisories from the National Weather Service.

From there, showers and thunderstorms will fire each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will be the main concerns, though the stronger updrafts found where outflow boundaries collide could be capable of producing a marginally severe storm or two with damaging wind gusts the main concern. As is often the case in July, it will not rain all day, and some of you may not see rain every day. Just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms approach. Severe or not, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

Expect one more generally quiet weather day on Thursday (though a shower or storm can’t be ruled out in the afternoon, especially further inland) before things turn more unsettled as a trough digs in for Friday and the weekend.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday and the weekend with an active seabreeze and plenty of heat and humidity. Highs each day will top out in the low to mid-90s, with heat indices over 105° expected. Sunday’s heat index could approach 110°, in fact. Airmass showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the early afternoon, with more activity kicking up along the inland-moving seabreeze as we head into the evenings. As always, keep up to date with forecast changes as small tweaks — such as the pocket of drier air aloft that enveloped the area Thursday, which kept thunderstorms to a dull roar — could mean a better (and vice versa) day of weather.

More showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday afternoon as a warm and humid atmosphere remains firmly in place across the area. Temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-90s before storms start to kick up after convective temperatures are met. Shear is weak and instability is about average, but there will still be plenty of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere, so expect frequent lightning and heavy rain with the stronger of Thursday’s thunderstorms. There will be the risk for storms to anchor a bit and rain a lot in one spot as westerly flow aloft fights against an inland-moving seabreeze. (Daniel Island knows all about this, with several stations on the island recording 2-3″ of rain in a couple hours’ time.) A damaging wet microburst or two can’t be discounted either especially near where outflow boundaries collide. Once again, keep an ear out for warnings and take it easy on the commute.

One more round of coastal flooding is possible with the Thursday night high tide at 11:43 PM. Expect water levels between 7.1-7.3′ to produce some minor flooding generally between 9 PM-1 AM. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be issued. From there, the astronomical influences of the full moon will wane further, and while water levels may get close on Friday night, we should be done with this round of king tides.

Here comes real summer: Humidity begins to increase Friday as winds go more southerly at the surface, and will continue to build heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday top out in the mid-90s once again, and with dewpoints just shy of 70°, expect heat indices to approach 100° in the afternoon. We could see a shower or storm in the afternoon to evening hours along the seabreeze (and possibly as a result of a decaying convective complex headed toward the Carolinas), but most of us should stay dry.

Similar weather is on tap for Saturday, but with dewpoints a few clicks higher, expect heat indices to top out around 102° or so. Once again, we could see a shower or storm in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us should get away with the day rain-free.

By Sunday, dewpoints will top out in the mid-70s, and this combined with solid mid-90s temperatures could drive heat indices near 110°, which is the Heat Advisory threshold after July 1. A stray shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but the odds favor dry weather for now. We’ll want to keep an eye on potential thunderstorm complexes rounding a ridge of high pressure that’ll be making gradual eastward progress toward the area, so stay tuned to forecast updates as these are hard to catch beyond a day or so.

Thursday will be another active weather day across the region as a warm front draped across SC interacts with low pressure aloft to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, with damaging wind gusts the main concern, though some hail can’t be ruled out either. Highs on Thursday top out in the mid-80s before storms get rolling once more. It won’t rain all day in any one spot, but when it does, it could be quite heavy. Keep rain gear handy, allow additional travel time, and keep an ear out for flood advisories as well.

A stretch of quieter weather begins Friday and lasts through the weekend, in what is a bit of a role reversal for 2023. A few showers could be around the area Friday morning, but those will get out of here by mid-morning and we should stay largely quiet for the rest of the day. Highs head to around 90° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday will both be pretty solid mid-June days: we’ll start each day in the low 70s and top out in the low 90s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or storm may be possible well inland — one can never totally rule that out especially with a trough still hanging around — but otherwise, it’s looking good, and I hope you can take advantage.

Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is expected Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening as daytime heating and some upper-air help kicks in, though a shower or storm will be possible for much of the day. Before storms fire, expect to start the day in the upper 60s, warming to the mid-80s under a mix of sun and clouds. Dewpoints around 70° will yield heat indices around 90°.

The risk for severe weather is looking a little lower than it did on Wednesday, with the best risk displaced to the south, but a storm with a damaging wind gust or two and some hail can’t totally be ruled out.

Quieter weather continues as we head into Friday and Saturday, with the risk for thunderstorms returning Sunday afternoon and evening as another front gets close to the area.

Our string of stormy afternoons looks to continue on Thursday as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Showers could fire as early as mid-morning, but the better chance of thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon and evening hours as we get some daytime heating in place. Much like the past two days, a few storms could produce gusty winds and hail, so be on the lookout for quickly changing weather conditions and be ready to move indoors quickly if storms approach.

With the front in the area, highs will top out somewhat lower than Wednesday’s 92° — expect generally mid-80s across the region before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. We could run a little warmer — or cooler — depending on how fast the front gets south of here. (That could also modulate our thunderstorm chances a bit, too.)

Finally, there are no air quality concerns with the ongoing wildfire smoke that is being transported south into the eastern United States from Quebec, though we will continue to see a milky haze in the sky, which should persist into the weekend.