The week ahead will be bookended by really nice weather, though we’re going to need to get through another risk of showers and thunderstorms — yes, with a few possibly being severe — on Wednesday before we get through to the weekend.
For Monday, though, expect a slightly less windy carbon copy of Sunday. After starting in the mid-40s, highs will topping out in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies as cool and dry high pressure hangs on for one more day. We’ll see temperatures begin to head back up on Tuesday along with cloud cover as high pressure slips offshore in advance of our next storm system on Wednesday.
Wednesday will once again test our stretch of good luck with severe weather threats so far this spring. We’ll see a warm front lift across the area in the morning, putting us (at least briefly) in the warm sector of a strong storm system which is forecast to bring significant weather impacts to the Gulf Coast over the next two days. While in that warm sector, temperatures look to warm to the upper 70s despite decent cloud cover. Early calls from the models show decent instability and ample shear supportive of a slight severe weather threat. Given the close proximity of the front, I’d expect a more linear storm mode with damaging straight-line winds the primary concern, but there seems to be enough low-level shear to support a low-end tornado threat as well. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds look to be rather gusty courtesy of a strong low-level jet moving across the area. So, you’ll want to keep an ear out for forecast updates for the next couple days as the details are worked out.
Exact timing on the front’s passage will still need to be worked out, but overall, expect rain chances to trend downward as Thursday goes on. The front will leave behind a rather pleasant airmass with plenty of sun, low humidity, and high temperatures running near normal (low 70s) for Friday and the weekend. And so it goes with spring — some really nice weather mixed with the occasional nastygram.
The week ahead features a return to warmer weather with shower and thunderstorm chances mixed in as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled across the Southeast.
Frost and freeze conditions will give way to warmer — but still a touch below normal — high temperatures across the area on Monday as we warm into the mid-60s. Cloud cover will be on the increase as surface high pressure slips offshore and moisture return improves on the back side of the high. Rain chances begin to tick up later in the day on Tuesday as an upper-level low cuts off over the Arklatex and begins to move eastward, spreading some energy into the area and spawning a surface low pressure system. The cutoff low will move by the Carolinas on Wednesday, and with surface low pressure in place, this will help generate showers and thunderstorms across the area. A couple strong storms might not be out of the question on Wednesday, so that’ll be a trend to watch.
The upper low opens back up into a trough as it moves back into the Atlantic later Wednesday into early Thursday, leaving behind a little bit of ridging and thus quiet weather for the better part of Thursday heading into Friday. Another upper-level low will be moving across the mid-South on Friday, and the associated surface front will approach the area heading into the weekend, bringing some showers and maybe a thunderstorm into our forecast.
Thankfully, there’s no further return to winter in this forecast; no frost and freeze concerns are expected after Monday morning, and temperatures will generally run above normal throughout the week, ranging from the mid-60s on Monday to the low-to-mid-70s Tuesday through Thursday before warming up into the upper 70s to near 80° for Friday and Saturday.
A solid pollen rinse is in the offing this week as a cold front is forecast to stall over the area, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area for much of the upcoming work week.
First, though, we have one more day of great weather teed up for Monday. It’ll be a good day to catch a meal outside at some point during the day with highs once again topping out in the low 80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
A cold front will then approach the area on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the day on Tuesday, though it won’t rain all day. The front will stall out across the area on Wednesday, and waves of low pressure will ripple along it, keeping persistent cloud cover, shower, and even some thunderstorm chances in play. Our best rain chances right now look to be in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Saturday should still feature some showers, but rain chances will be headed down as one final cold front pushes through the area, which will bring quite a cooldown to the area — think upper 50s for Sunday’s highs, which is quite a bit below normal for this point in the year. If you’ve not planted, think about delaying a bit longer — we could be talking frost and freeze issues heading into mid-March, because that’s what March does.
We do need the rain, that’s for sure — we are running way behind so far this year and are getting into quite a drought. The pollen rinse will certainly help, too!
February gives way to March this week with very little fanfare in the weather department. We start the week with temperatures running a touch below normal, but a gradual warmup is in the cards as we get through the work week before we approach 80° by the weekend. High pressure will keep things rain-free for the next few days, though it may be a little more cloudy than we might like Monday into Tuesday.
The only main weather concern this week will be the risk for minor coastal flooding with the Monday and Tuesday morning high tides thanks to persistent northeast flow and the upcoming new moon. The 6:03am high tide Monday morning could clip 7’. Tuesday morning’s will run a little higher around 7.2-7.4’, which could close a few vulnerable roads near the edges of the Charleston peninsula. Beyond then, winds begin to go around to the north and then the west, which will cut down the coastal flooding risk for the rest of the week.
After a really nice, seasonable weekend, temperatures will climb back into the 70s again on Monday, with 80s returning to challenge record highs by mid-week. A cold front looks to snap us back to more seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
Precipitation-wise, there will be a slight chance for some showers on Monday as a coastal trough develops and brings Atlantic moisture inland, but we otherwise look to stay dry through Friday, when the front brings a small chance of showers to the area.
With such warm temperatures and cooler shelf waters, sea fog is certainly a possibility over the next few days. This may impact visibility and temperatures at times, especially near the coast.
This week’s forecast is largely straightforward and gets better as the week wears on. We’ll get much of the rain out of the way Monday morning, with shower chances diminishing heading into the evening as coastal low pressure departs. Monday’s going to be the chilliest day of the set with highs struggling to crack 50° thanks to the showers and persistent cold wedge.
Cloud cover and maybe a shower or two will linger to start Tuesday, but we’ll be trending clearer as the day goes on. Highs top out in the mid-50s. From there, temperatures begin to trend at or even above normal with several days of quiet weather on tap from Wednesday to at least Saturday if not beyond. There is a little model noise around some rain in the area by next Sunday, but agreement and consistency is meh at the moment. For now, the NWS forecast maintains dry but slightly cooler weather for Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on that in case it changes!
After a couple rather chilly weeks, we’ll give the heavy jackets a bit of a rest as ridging builds in aloft. We start the week with low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and highs in the low-to-mid-60s with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover ticks up a little bit for Wednesday, but so do temperatures as we get close to 70° in the afternoon. By Thursday, another storm system will be approaching from the west, but we should top out in the low 70s before it starts to get into the area. Right now our best rain chance arrives Friday as the cold front gets through. Saturday will turn much cooler with highs back in the mid-50s. This continues into Sunday, with perhaps a slight rain chance as moisture overruns a wedge of high pressure at the surface.
Overall, the forecast is looking a bit quieter (at least right now) as we head into the final full week of January (yes, already). Below-normal temperatures (normal highs for late January are around 60°) will continue as the overall pattern continues to show a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, keeping this side of the country in cooler temperatures and in a more active storm track overall.
Monday looks to be a repeat of today without the 21° start or the falling ice onto the Ravenel Bridge. We’ll start the day again around freezing, but that will be fairly short-lived as temperatures will top out in the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies. Low pressure sliding south of the area could toss some moisture in play on Tuesday with a slight shower chance across the area, but temperatures will remain above freezing. We run a little cooler Wednesday and again on Thursday as a front comes by, with another hard freeze possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
By Friday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as we watch for an area of low pressure that looks to develop off the coast of Florida and move northeastward. The global models are pretty far apart on the position of a trough that would push the low further offshore. Right now the ECMWF (Euro) solution favors a dry forecast for us, while the GFS has been slower on the trough and thus keeps the low a little more eastward, spreading some precipitation ashore. We’ll wait to see how things develop, but for now, NWS has kept the area rain-free as we head into Friday and the weekend, which will continue to be significantly cooler than normal. Right now, the forecast shows mornings in the 20s and highs in the mid-40s on Saturday and low 50s on Sunday with generally quiet weather. Stay tuned for changes here, though.
We’ll see some showers and thunderstorms overnight as a cold front approaches the area. No severe weather is expected, but some gusty winds and brief heavy downpours are possible as the line gets through. Rain should clear the area before daybreak.
Once the front is through, temperatures will plummet and clouds will scour out. Expect high temperatures to only top out around the mid-50s with some afternoon sunshine. Then, we’ll have a pretty cold night overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with lows getting into the upper 20s in the metro area away from the coast. Highs on Tuesday will only top out in the upper 40s despite full sunshine.
After another somewhat hard freeze Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate some as an upper disturbance approaches from the west and high pressure slips offshore. We might see a few showers Thursday morning as the disturbance swings through, but will close the work week with mostly sunny skies. Showers re-enter the realm of possibilities for the weekend as another front approaches the area. Temperatures will remain generally around if not a click or two below normal.
Tonight’s forecast is rather tricky. We’ve had a good bit of rain across much of the Tri-County today that has helped to knock temperatures back into the 60s in most spots, but it is still conceivable that a few severe thunderstorms may develop overnight.
