Thursday will offer up an early taste of spring as breezy southerly winds ahead of our next cold front pump warm air into the area. After starting the day in the mid-50s — keeping in mind the normal high for early February is 62° — temperatures will head into the 70s in the afternoon under a mix of clouds and sun. Some of the high-resolution guidance members do show a stray shower or two in the area, but a mostly dry atmospheric column should keep those few and far between.

As mentioned before, it’ll be breezy: southerly winds could gust to about 20 MPH or so at times during the day, so keep this in mind if you’re thinking about an outdoor lunch.

There remains an outside shot at some coastal flooding again Wednesday morning, but the more southerly flow should help keep any tidal flooding relatively minor. Still, watch out around the 9:39 AM high tide for a few salt water-covered roads in vulnerable spots, particularly near MUSC and The Citadel.

Our warming trend continues as we head toward Friday before a cold front gets by and knocks Saturday back to normal. Wednesday features partly cloudy skies and highs topping out in the mid-60s, while we go even warmer on Thursday — low 70s for highs! — despite increasing cloud cover as the cold front draws nearer. By Friday, we stay in the 70s, but expect showers to begin to develop and move across the area ahead of said front. We turn much cooler for the weekend behind the front, and will likely stay unsettled pending the development of a coastal low that will head northeastward, keeping rain chances in our forecast into the new work week.

After a couple rather chilly weeks, we’ll give the heavy jackets a bit of a rest as ridging builds in aloft. We start the week with low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and highs in the low-to-mid-60s with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover ticks up a little bit for Wednesday, but so do temperatures as we get close to 70° in the afternoon. By Thursday, another storm system will be approaching from the west, but we should top out in the low 70s before it starts to get into the area. Right now our best rain chance arrives Friday as the cold front gets through. Saturday will turn much cooler with highs back in the mid-50s. This continues into Sunday, with perhaps a slight rain chance as moisture overruns a wedge of high pressure at the surface.

Sunday morning will be the coldest of the season thus far as lows bottom out in the low 20s in the metro area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few spots dip below 20°, even. Suffice to say, this is pipe-busting cold — keep a faucet on drip and make sure your pets and plants are in a warm place tonight. Add on some wind kicking in after sunrise, and temperatures could feel closer to the mid-teens during the morning.

A warming trend will commence, though, as winds go southwesterly during the day Sunday. Temperatures will top out in the low 50s (as opposed to the mid-40s) in the afternoon. We won’t fall below freezing overnight in most locations in the metro area (staying in the mid-30s) as we head into Monday morning, either. From there, Monday could be the warmest afternoon in a week and a half as highs climb into the low 60s for the first time since it was 73° on January 20. We could even see 70s again on Thursday ahead of our next storm system which, thankfully, looks to stay all liquid this go-around.

No point in burying the lede: Yes, we do have a legitimate shot at some light snow very early on Saturday morning. If you’re looking for your best chance to see snow, you’ll need to get up pretty early — general thinking around timing the change from rain to snow is generally from 3-5am from west to east.

There’s inherent uncertainty in where flakes will fly. We’re likely to see our best snow in northeastern Berkeley County and far northern Charleston County, where a couple hundredths of an inch could accumulate primarily on elevated and/or grassy surfaces. Further south into the Charleston metro area, precipitation looks to lighten up and taper off as moisture is stripped out of the atmosphere. It’s here where my confidence in whether we even see flurries is lower — a lot will be determined by the path of the upper low over the next few hours. In all cases, though, it is unlikely that we will see any problems.

Precipitation looks to depart generally around daybreak, though the further north you are, the longer it might linger as light snow. Once the snow is gone, attention turns to the surge of Arctic air in the wake of the strengthening coastal low pressure that is going to bring a blizzard to a fair number of people in New England. Highs will only top out in the low 40s, and it’s conceivable that wind chills could be in the 20s well into the afternoon. Air temperatures get that low for Sunday morning as another cold day is on tap before a warming trend evolves beginning Monday.

Let me know what you’re seeing tonight into tomorrow morning if you end up trying to wake up early for this — just make sure you’re bundled up!

Well, here we are getting into the weekend with another storm system primed to affect the area. Overcast skies will be the rule for much of Friday as showers develop in the afternoon on the periphery of offshore low pressure. Temperatures will only top out around 50-51° given the lack of sunshine and northerly component to the wind.

As we get into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning, showers could give way to some snow flurries as colder air punches into the area. I always urge caution with cold-chasing-moisture scenarios like the one we will find ourselves in, but as an upper low traverses the area on the heels of the surface low pressure system moving northeast, it’s certainly conceivable that parts of the Tri-County, especially along and north of a Summerville-Moncks Corner-Jamestown line, could see a period of snow. Flurries will be possible all the way to the coast and perhaps as far south as Edisto as we get toward daybreak Saturday. Accumulations, if any, will be quite light and confined to grassy surfaces, and travel disruptions are not expected. And yes, folks — there will be no ice.

While the risk for snow is still quite conditional (and, to be fair, may not fully pan out), the certainty in the forecast is another shot of Arctic air that will turn this weekend frigid. Temperatures will struggle into the low 40s on Saturday afternoon despite cloud cover scouring out, producing clear skies by the afternoon. Sunday morning is setting up to rival the coldest of the season with lows in the low 20s expected in the Charleston metro area. This is potentially pipe-busting cold, and you’ll need to make sure that pets, plants, pipes, and people are safe and sound Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any bit of light wind could bring the wind chill factor into the upper teens on Sunday morning, too. We’ll keep plenty of sun in the forecast for Sunday, but even then, highs will likely not crack 50°.

The good news is that we begin a sharp warming trend on Monday. As we get into later in the new work week, we may even flirt with 70° for a time. With that in mind, though, the large scale pattern continues to favor generally cooler-than-normal conditions in the eastern half of the US, so don’t change out the wardrobe at the first sign of upper 60s just yet.

Thursday will start below freezing as cold air continues to push into the area from the northeast. Temperatures generally look to range between the upper 20s well inland to around freezing in the North Charleston area to the mid-to-upper 30s closer to the coast. Factor in the wind, though, and it may feel like the low 20s in spots. Make sure everyone’s bundled up well heading to work or school. Afternoon temperatures top out in the low 50s despite the plentiful sunshine.

As we get into Friday, we’ll be watching the development of a low pressure system off the coast closely. Said low pressure will spread rain into the area on Friday before another shot of Arctic air arrives. There remains a possibility for some flurries or brief snow showers early Saturday morning. The closer the low is, the better shot we have at some wrap-around flurries. Generally speaking, though, cold chasing moisture can be a recipe for winter weather disappointment in the Carolinas, so be sure to set expectations accordingly. Most importantly, no accumulations are forecast, limiting travel impacts. (No freezing rain, either!)

The certain impact from this storm will be the aforementioned Arctic air being drawn southward behind it. We may not get out of the 40s from Friday night through Monday afternoon, with a particularly frigid morning on tap on Sunday with low 20s in the Charleston metro area and the potential for air temperatures in the teens further inland.

Stay tuned to forecast updates on our (thankfully much more conversational) winter weather chances overnight Friday into Saturday morning!

We remain chilly for the rest of the week with below-normal temperatures persisting, but this will feel warm compared to what we’ve got coming for the weekend.

First, though, we’ve got to get through the work week. A cold front comes through early tomorrow, helping to clear out the cloud cover and sprinkles we saw today. Cold air moving in behind said front will keep high temperatures suppressed into the mid-50s despite the increasing sunshine.

Cold air will continue to blow into the area on Thursday, allowing air temperatures to drop below freezing and morning wind chills to bottom out near 20°. It’ll be a good day to layer up; 52° isn’t terribly warm still, but it will certainly feel better than a feels-like temperature of 21° in the morning.

High pressure will then begin to give way to low pressure developing somewhere off the Southeast coast on Friday. This will help generate some scattered showers throughout the day into early Saturday before the low pressure system moves away from the area, potentially bringing quite a snowstorm to the Northeast before it’s all said and done. Said low pressure will drive a sharp cold front through, and lead to weekend highs in the 40s and a very chilly Sunday morning of low 20s.

Low pressure moving along the Gulf Coast will keep a little more cloud cover in the area for Tuesday than we saw on this brilliantly sunny Monday. That will have the effect of keeping temperatures right around 40° to start the day, a touch warmer than we started with today and definitely warmer than how we started the weekend. Highs will rise back into the mid-to-upper 50s with winds coming out of the west. This is still cooler than normal for this point in January, but decent considering the expected broken cloud cover in place.

A shower or two will be possible in the afternoon and early evening hours mainly near the coastal areas as the aforementioned low pressure moves on by, but the vast majority of us look to stay rain-free. If it does rain, it may not even be measurable.

I’m also continuing to monitor model trends for scuttlebutt around a potential coastal storm this weekend. If you’re looking for another dose of winter weather, today’s trends aren’t ideal: model agreement has been improving in keeping the low pressure system in question well off our shores, with the GFS and ECMWF now in a bit more agreement on bringing drier air into the area before the colder air arrives. While the two models did a better job lining up today, I’m going to need to see a bit more run-to-run consistency overall before confidence in any one solution can improve.

For its part, NWS has a 40% chance of rain — and that’s it — for Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning, and if you need to be making any decisions about your weekend, that’s the forecast you want to be following. Stay tuned, for future adjustments to the forecast are more likely than not.

Overall, the forecast is looking a bit quieter (at least right now) as we head into the final full week of January (yes, already). Below-normal temperatures (normal highs for late January are around 60°) will continue as the overall pattern continues to show a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, keeping this side of the country in cooler temperatures and in a more active storm track overall.

Monday looks to be a repeat of today without the 21° start or the falling ice onto the Ravenel Bridge. We’ll start the day again around freezing, but that will be fairly short-lived as temperatures will top out in the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies. Low pressure sliding south of the area could toss some moisture in play on Tuesday with a slight shower chance across the area, but temperatures will remain above freezing. We run a little cooler Wednesday and again on Thursday as a front comes by, with another hard freeze possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

By Friday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as we watch for an area of low pressure that looks to develop off the coast of Florida and move northeastward. The global models are pretty far apart on the position of a trough that would push the low further offshore. Right now the ECMWF (Euro) solution favors a dry forecast for us, while the GFS has been slower on the trough and thus keeps the low a little more eastward, spreading some precipitation ashore. We’ll wait to see how things develop, but for now, NWS has kept the area rain-free as we head into Friday and the weekend, which will continue to be significantly cooler than normal. Right now, the forecast shows mornings in the 20s and highs in the mid-40s on Saturday and low 50s on Sunday with generally quiet weather. Stay tuned for changes here, though.

Have a great week!