Idalia is back to being a tropical storm this evening. As of the 5PM fix from the National Hurricane Center, Idalia was centered about 40 miles west of Savannah (or 115 miles WSW of Charleston) and was moving northeast at 21 MPH. Maximum sustained winds were at 70 MPH and continuing to fall. Tropical Storm Warnings continue, a Tornado Watch remains in effect until 10PM, and a Flood Watch continues until 2AM. The Hurricane Watch was dropped at 5PM after Idalia was downgraded.

Idalia has been a pain so far today in the Lowcountry, with numerous tornado warnings (and some possible touchdowns, including a car getting tossed in Goose Creek) and very heavy rain in spots. Radar is generally estimating about 1-3″ so far, with some more to fall as rain bands continue to move through. The heaviest rain still looks to be positioned to move up through the Midlands, but may scrape parts of far inland Dorchester and Berkeley counties.

Closer to the coast, we will be dealing with increasingly gusty winds — gusts to tropical storm force appear likely across the barrier islands into downtown and Mt. Pleasant — as well as significant coastal flooding punctuated by a forecast 8.7′ high tide which would rank among the top ten on record. The water level in the harbor as of about 5:45 PM was already up to 6.06′, which is a departure of a little over 1 and ½ feet. High tide is expected to peak around 8:30. Numerous road closures are expected; in fact, around this time it’s probably best to just be where you’re going to be. Any heavy rain bands that develop and move over will exacerbate flooding, perhaps making for a widespread problem downtown and on barrier islands.

After 2-3am, we should start to see improvement, though gusty winds and maybe some showers will persist into Thursday. For now, though, keep phones charged and weather radios on standby in case you lose power. Be safe — we’ll be done with Idalia before you know it.

Hurricane Idalia, which as of this writing was a strong Category 2 hurricane with 100 MPH maximum winds, will make landfall as a major hurricane in Florida later Tuesday or early Wednesday. From there, Idalia will turn more northeast, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal and freshwater flooding, and the risk for a tornado or two within rain bands to the area later Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Trends have been for the storm to track a little more inland of the coast than we’ve seen forecasted in the past day or so, and there is pretty good agreement that this will be the case, expanding the heavy rain threat further inland along with the tornado threat in the evening. Here’s a full rundown of what to expect.

Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day as we prepare for Idalia’s arrival in the Lowcountry. We start the day in the mid-70s and warm to around 90° with heat indices approaching 100° within the increasingly tropical airmass. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to fire along the seabreeze in the afternoon and become somewhat numerous at times. Heavy rain capable of minor flooding will be possible. We’ll also need to watch the risk for coastal flooding in the evening, with minor to moderate flooding possible as water levels approaching 7.5′ with the 7:31 PM high tide. Due to the Storm Surge Watch in effect, there will be no Coastal Flood Advisory, so keep that in mind.

Much of the weather scuttlebutt this week will be about Tropical Storm Idalia, which increasingly looks like it’s going to have impacts on the area Wednesday into Thursday. We have a couple reasonably quiet days ahead before the weather begins to head downhill later Tuesday night. Expect highs on Monday to top out in the low 90s with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze; it’ll be a similar story for a good bit of Tuesday before moisture from Idalia potentially triggers a predecessor rain event along and ahead of a stalled front, which could bring very heavy rain to some spots and maybe even some flooding ahead of the storm’s arrival.

Sunday will be yet another warm and muggy late-August day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s before highs head to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should peak in the low 100s. From there, we should see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze. We may also see some activity from the north near a stalling cold front trying to infiltrate the area as well. The strongest storms will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds, though widespread severe weather is far from in the cards. Overall, no washout of a day, just be ready to move outdoor activities inside if storms approach.

Saturday will be the peak of this stretch of hot weather as temperatures head to the mid-90s in the afternoon (though not quite as high as forecast earlier this week…good thing, too). Heat indices will get close to 109-110° in the afternoon. There’s no heat advisory as of this writing, and if trends continue, we’ll probably fall just short of criteria. Still, these kinds of heat indices still increase the risk for heat illness, so be getting plenty of water if you’re going to be exerting yourself outside in the afternoon. We should see a few storms fire along the seabreeze in the afternoon, which will bring some relief to a few of y’all.

More widespread showers and storms are expected Sunday (though not a complete washout, either) as a front sags southward and stalls out nearby. It’ll be another warm and humid day with air temperatures topping out in the low 90s and heat indices 100-103° before thunderstorms fire off and cool things down somewhat. The unsettled weather will continue into next week as the front hangs around and plays a big role in our weather.

Alas, Friday and the weekend will bring us back to reality a little bit after a couple fairly nice days for late August. Highs on Friday top back out in the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies as ridging holds on tight for at least one more day, suppressing afternoon thunderstorm chances (and, as such, any chance for relief). Heat indices look to peak around 102° or so — not quite advisory level, but not exactly pumpkin spice weather, either.

Saturday will be even hotter, as air temperatures head up into the upper 90s. Combine this with solidly mid-70s dewpoints and that’ll yield heat indices approaching the heat advisory threshold of 110°. As ridging aloft begins to weaken, the seabreeze may have a slightly easier time popping a storm or two, though coverage will continue to be primarily isolated in nature.

Storm chances tick up fairly decently for Sunday afternoon and evening as a front approaches the area and a trough sets in aloft. It’ll still be hot — expect mid-90s highs before storms kick in — and heat indices could still head north of the 105° danger zone (but should remain shy of advisory thresholds). This will usher in a more active period heading into next week, with rain chances becoming more likely as the aforementioned front stalls and hangs around for a few days.

The air on Wednesday evening is fairly glorious — dewpoints in the mid-60s behind the seabreeze, with even some 50s dewpoints ahead of it — thanks to a cold front that pushed through earlier in the day. We’ll keep some of this dry air around for Thursday, which will keep the high of 92° feeling closer to 93-94°. We’ll see a few clouds across the area, but otherwise, it’ll be another reasonably pleasant late-August day.

After another very warm day Tuesday, a cold front will get through the area overnight and into early Wednesday, bringing an all-too-brief round of much drier air to the area. (A few showers are possible too.) We start the day in the mid-70s, but as the somewhat cooler and drier air moves in, we’ll find highs will top out generally in the upper 80s. Lower dewpoints, though, are what will make upper 80s to around 90° much more tolerable. We should see dewpoints mix down to the low 60s for the first time since June. Heat index won’t be a factor, and it should overall be a comparatively nice afternoon to do some things outside for a change.

Tuesday will be another rather warm day across the Lowcountry. After we topped out at 95° on Monday, temperatures should head a little higher on Tuesday, back into the mid-90s once again under partly cloudy skies. Peak heat indices will range from near 105° inland to around 108° closer to the coast where the higher-dewpoint air will be found. This is in the range where heat illness becomes an escalated concern, so be sure to take the normal heat precautions if you’re out and about Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are unlikely given ridging aloft, but a stray shower can never be totally ruled out.