Radar continues to show light to moderate rain moving across much of the Lowcountry late this evening, with some embedded pockets of heavier rain. Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible for the next couple hours before tapering off after midnight. Most of this should be out of here by 2-3am.
The risk for severe weather has ended across the Charleston Metro Area, and tide levels continue to retreat after peaking shy of 6.4′ MLLW earlier this evening, so there are no further major weather concerns tonight.
Many spots saw over 1″ of rain based on reports. It’s much-needed, and it’s sure great to get it without all the extracurricular activity. We’ll have a few days to dry out before the next risk for rain arrives later next week.
We are largely hitting a lull in the rain across the area early this evening. Temperatures have settled into the mid-60s across the area, with skies remaining very overcast. Today’s rain has tamped down the severe weather threat pretty well, and with light showers still in the area and the amount of daylight waning, we should be in decent shape. Given the dynamics, one cannot totally rule out an isolated storm with gusty winds or hail, but the risk is very low.
Our next round of rain is likely taking shape to our west, where the airmass did get time to recover and another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing. This activity will weaken as it heads eastward, but may hang on enough to bring more substantial rain into the area. Radar estimates suggest that we’ve generally received anywhere from .25-.75″ across much of the Tri-County, with the highest amounts in southern Charleston County as well as between 17-A and I-95 in Berkeley and Dorchester counties. It’s been a pretty decent soaking, and the good news is that there have been no flooding concerns of note so far.
Based on current timings, it looks like we will get past high tide before any more heavy rain moves in, which is good news for downtown. Of course, we’ll keep an eye on things until the cold front swings through late tonight, but so far, it’s turning out pretty good for us.
It’s been a while since there’s been anything of consequence on radar, but we are beginning to see some rainfall move into the Tri-County from the west now. Some embedded downpours and rumbles of thunder are certainly possible, but the severe weather threat remains low and should stay that way through the evening. Now that we have seen how storms are evolving, the risk for severe weather looks greatest along and south of Interstate 16 in Georgia. A tornado watch is up for Southeast Georgia until 6PM as a squall line moves through. This line stretches from Georgia southwestward into Florida, with the worst of the weather looking to stay south of the Charleston Metro Area.
A couple more rounds of heavy rain are possible through this evening, and we will still need to watch the 6:43 PM high tide very closely for the potential for flooding, especially if heavy rain is ongoing at that time. There remains a marginal risk that one or two storms could still become severe, too, so be sure you can still receive warnings this afternoon and evening. However, a widespread severe weather event is becoming increasingly less likely.
Today marks 23 days without measurable rainfall at the airport. This is the driest start to April since 1976, when it took until the last day of the month to record some measurable rainfall. We will not match that streak this time, though, as a potent storm system will bring us gusty winds, a fair bit of rain, and possibly some severe weather on Saturday.
Friday will start out as another chilly morning as temperatures will dip into the low 40s. Frost should not be a concern in our neck of the woods, though, so no worries for your gardens. Temperatures will top out around 70-71° with cloud cover on the increase ahead of our next storm system. Note that fire danger remains high on Friday given continued dry conditions and low humidity.
Saturday will bring beneficial rain to the area, but it may bring some stronger thunderstorms as well. Showers will be possible on Saturday morning, but the best chance for heavier rain and thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon into the evening hours. NWS estimates rainfall amounts around 1-2″, which would be hugely helpful as long as we don’t get it all at one time. Temperatures look to top out in the mid-70s barring more rainfall earlier in the day. Regardless of thunderstorms, winds should be fairly breezy with gusts perhaps near 35-40 MPH at times.
The severe weather threat for Saturday will largely be modulated by how unstable the atmosphere can get. Wind shear will be plentiful thanks to a strengthening low-level jet and favorable upper-level winds, so that ingredient will certainly be there, and there is general model agreement that moisture will surge into the area later Saturday, which may contribute to further destabilization. A lot will depend on how warm we can get during the day — if rain fires up and sticks around, which is certainly possible, then that takes the severe threat down a peg or two (but doesn’t completely eliminate it given the aforementioned favorable wind shear). If it doesn’t, though, there will be fuel available for the storms by the time they get here, and with the expected shear in place, a few severe storms will be expected. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns, but given the favorable vertical wind profiles, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
All this nastiness clears the area overnight Saturday as a front sweeps through, and by Sunday, we will have a much nicer day with clouds gradually breaking down and temperatures rising into the mid-to-upper 70s. It’ll remain windy throughout the day in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in behind it, but otherwise, there are no weather concerns for Sunday into much of next week as our fairly arid April rolls on.
A cold front has gotten through the area this evening, and temperatures are on their way down in its wake. By morning, we’ll be bottoming out in the mid-40s, and you’ll be excused if you’re not quite sure whether it’s late April or not. Despite unencumbered sunshine, temperatures will only reach the mid-60s as chilly high pressure builds in overhead. The April sun angle should still make short sleeves reasonably comfortable, though.
Wednesday promises to be another warm day across the Lowcountry ahead of a cold front. A dearth of moisture will lead to mostly clear skies despite the front, and with winds picking up out of the west due to a tightening pressure gradient (30+ MPH gusts are possible), we will need to keep an eye on the risk for wildfire danger tomorrow given continued dry conditions across the area. Highs will top out in the low 80s with heat index values running potentially cooler than the air temperature with very low humidity expected. (I don’t get to say that often around here!) The aforementioned cold front will move through the area in the evening, bringing a wind shift to the northwest and a relatively quick cooldown. Cool advection will help knock Thursday morning’s temperatures down into the mid-40s, a tad chilly for this point in April.
Saturday continues to be our next best hope for significant rainfall across the area. It’s looking pretty good for that, too, with perhaps even some thunderstorms getting into the mix as well in the afternoon and evening hours. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, be looking at indoor options.
We’ll see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, allowing for a little more moisture return off the Atlantic. Temperatures will also run a few degrees cooler than we saw today, but we still should remain relatively comfortable.
It looks as if we get much, if not all, of Tuesday in rain-free. A couple of the models continue to come in with some shower activity Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, but it’s unclear if this is overdone. Any rain that falls would be relatively light, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Otherwise, our next substantial rain chance arrives this weekend, most likely Saturday night. More on that as we get through the week.
Our long-standing dry spell will continue for much of this week, save for a small chance of showers on Tuesday as a little upper-level energy ripples through.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail on Monday as temperatures reach right around 80° — still a few degrees above normal at this point in the year. We’ll run a touch cooler on Tuesday with a few more clouds in place and perhaps even a shower or two, but those won’t be enough to break us from our abnormally dry April. Mostly sunny skies return on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front which will swing through overnight. By Thursday, cool high pressure will build in with temperatures near 8-10° below normal across the area under clear skies. High pressure gets off the coast on Friday and temperatures recover to the mid-70s with gradually increasing cloud cover in the evening ahead of a storm system.
If we are going to thwart the driest start to April since 1976, it’s likely going to happen Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as low pressure moves through the area. At this range, of course, there are certainly model differences, and we will need to see how the details ultimately unfold, but this is the best shot at rain we’ve had probably all month! We’ll watch it closely. For now, though, keep watering your plants and washing your cars as we get through another dry work week.
