Warm weather fans, this will be a little better week for you as temperatures will run closer to, if not slightly above, normal at times.

The weather will take a turn more toward unsettled starting Wednesday afternoon as some upper-level energy well out ahead of a cold front helps to induce some showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Wednesday will start fairly mild with lows in the mid-60s thanks to persistent cloud cover. Winds will stay onshore, but despite this, we should still top out solidly in the upper 70s in the afternoon ahead of thunderstorms. It certainly seems that we may get a majority of the day in rain-free, with rain chances starting to head up around commute time.

The greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms looks to be after sunset through early Thursday morning. It’s likely we’ll get a good bit of Thursday morning in rain-free, allowing highs to top out near 80° in the early afternoon. Then, it’s possible that some showers may redevelop ahead of the cold front itself as its timing should coincide with peak heating. The front gets through Thursday evening, and by Friday, we’re starting out quite a bit cooler — upper 50s as opposed to mid-to-upper-60s — with highs topping out in the mid-70s under quite a bit of sunshine. This will set up a beautiful weekend of weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, though perhaps not quite as cool as mentioned yesterday. Still, though, mid-to-upper 70s remain below normal for highs for this point in October.

Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.

Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.

On balance, the week ahead will be primarily quiet weather-wise, with the exception of Thursday as a cold front presses through the area, bringing along some showers and thunderstorms. Highs through Thursday will remain a little below normal, generally running in the mid-to-upper 70s. Conversely, cloud cover and increased moisture will keep lows at or a little above normal through Thursday morning, with lows in the mid-60s expected Wednesday and Thursday right ahead of the front.

The weather on Thursday could bear watching for a few stronger storms depending on how much instability can develop. We’ll have good wind shear in place, but the instability — as is often the case as we head into the cool season — is going to be the main question mark. More likely, though, Thursday will represent the first significant rain for the area since Hurricane Ian, though amounts certainly won’t approach Ian-like numbers.

Once the front is through, we will see cloud cover decrease and temperatures once again head well below normal for Friday and the weekend, which is looking pretty good. Highs through this period will run in the low 70s, while lows will bottom out in the upper 50s Friday and the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, several degrees below normal for this point in the year.

We stay seasonably warm for Friday & the weekend, even with a cold front swinging through later Saturday. Friday’s going to be the warmest day of the set with the most unencumbered sunshine and some compressional heating ahead of the cold front helping to drive highs to around the low to mid-80s. A few more clouds will mark the approach and passage of the front Saturday, but no rain is expected; expect temperatures back in the low 80s ahead of the front Saturday afternoon. Winds go northeasterly on Sunday and will help to cool things down a touch. Expect highs to run in the upper 70s, generally a few clicks below early-to-mid-October normals, but not quite the chill we saw in the immediate wake of Ian last week.

We are breezy but rain-free this evening as dry high pressure remains in control of our weather. It will hang on for a bit for the first part of Thursday, but a gradual deterioration in weather will begin in the afternoon. It’s a good time to finish gathering supplies for a rough period of weather beginning later Thursday through Saturday morning.

The rest of the work week will remain hot — though not to the degree that we observed today, with the first 98° reading at the airport since August of 2019 — with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm as a strong ridge remains firmly in place across the area. Heat indices could once again reach advisory criteria tomorrow with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm to cool things off. So it will go Thursday and Friday, too, though onshore flow behind a backdoor front will keep temperatures a little “cooler” on Thursday, topping out “only” in the low 90s. Bottom line: Stay geared up for hot weather for the foreseeable future. We’ve got a little break coming Sunday, but the heat will then just surge right back as we get into next week. (Such is summer.)

Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue with the evening high tides through Friday. Onshore flow should send tidal departures even higher on Wednesday evening, with moderate flooding expected with the 9:55 PM high tide. Expect scattered to potentially numerous road closures in downtown Charleston tomorrow evening as a result, though thankfully after the commute.

After a couple rather chilly weeks, we’ll give the heavy jackets a bit of a rest as ridging builds in aloft. We start the week with low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and highs in the low-to-mid-60s with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover ticks up a little bit for Wednesday, but so do temperatures as we get close to 70° in the afternoon. By Thursday, another storm system will be approaching from the west, but we should top out in the low 70s before it starts to get into the area. Right now our best rain chance arrives Friday as the cold front gets through. Saturday will turn much cooler with highs back in the mid-50s. This continues into Sunday, with perhaps a slight rain chance as moisture overruns a wedge of high pressure at the surface.

Saturday’s gonna be a meteorological mess, it appears. A coastal storm, which has been trending more westward in modeling, is expected to develop tonight and move parallel to the coast during the day Saturday. This is going to bring the potential for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds (with gusts 30-40 mph possible particularly near the coast), and a forecasted top-10 tide in Charleston Harbor during the morning hours.

High tide on Saturday morning is currently forecast to peak between 8.5-8.7′ in Charleston Harbor. This would be good enough for at least tenth on record at the harbor, and would be the highest tide since the water level reached 8.76′ on November 24, 2018. This will introduce significant salt water flooding across downtown Charleston, resulting in numerous road closures. It’s also possible that we will see road closures along Long Point Rd. in Mt. Pleasant and Harborview Rd. on James Island. The tide is forecast to peak at 9:40am, but with these events, there’s often a little lag, so it may peak later. Expect floodwater 2-3 hours either side of high tide.

Guidance continues to hit on the potential for rain to be in the area around this time of high tide, which could make the situation even more dicey. One other thing to keep in mind is that there will be a round of minor tidal flooding on Saturday evening, as well. Some simulated radar products bring some of the heaviest rain into the area Saturday afternoon, ahead of high tide. If it’s enough rain, we could be in for a long-duration flooding event. This will bear close watch throughout the day. The NWS forecast is generally for 2-3″ of rain across Charleston County, with somewhat lower amounts inland.

Finally, with the strong pressure gradient between developing low pressure to our east and high pressure to our northwest, winds will turn quite gusty at times. Gusts to 40 MPH appear possible on bridges and overpasses as well as the beaches. (It’s this strong northeast wind which will help drive water levels higher.)

Combine all this with highs in the low 50s, and well…you’ve got a perfect excuse to stay in on Saturday.

Much cooler than normal temperatures will persist for Friday into the weekend as a high pressure wedge remains in place, keeping north to northeasterly flow over the area through Sunday. As a coastal storm organizes offshore — how far offshore remains quite an important forecast question — we’ll see an uptick in rain chances beginning Friday evening into Saturday. Where the storm sets up will largely influence just how much rain we get, an important piece considering the specter of an 8’+ high tide on Saturday morning. If heavy rain coincides with that tide, what looks to already be a significant coastal flooding event gets that much worse.

The coastal storm will lift away from the area heading into Saturday night, and we should see some more sunshine on Sunday. Moderate to major flooding remains a threat with the Sunday morning high tide, though, and will need to be watched carefully. We’ll stay on the chilly side, too, with highs only topping out in the mid-60s — more January than November.