We’ve got another unseasonably warm day on tap for Sunday as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft continues to extend into the Carolinas. High clouds will favor prominently well ahead of a cold front to our west, but that won’t act as much of a governor on temperatures with low 80s still expected in the afternoon. Indeed, onshore flow is likely going to be the only thing keeping us from approaching the record high of 87° set in 2003.

The morning warmth is almost more remarkable: lows in the upper 60s are forecast, which is getting close to 20° above normal for this point in the year. We should fall shy of the record high minimum temperature of 71° set in 2003, but it does look like we’ll give the record a good run for the money.

A stray shower or two can’t be totally ruled out, but we’ll stay sandwiched between the front to the west and better instability and convergence over the waters and should stay dry as a result.

Finally, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the 6:05 AM high tide as we approach a full moon on Tuesday. Water levels approaching 7′ in the harbor could put some salt water on roads around Gadsden Creek once again — think Fishburne and Hagood — as well as spots along Lockwood (both Drive and Boulevard).

Weather’s looking good for Thursday as high pressure at the surface and aloft are in control. It will remain mild for November with temperatures running a few degrees above normal, especially in the morning. Expect plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds from time to time. If there’s one thing that might throw a fly in the ointment for an outdoors lunch, it’s that there will be a bit of a northeasterly breeze. Pin your napkins down appropriately and otherwise enjoy!

The only other weather concern will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 5PM high tide. This could have commute impacts around Lockwood Dr. and the Citadel as salt water spills onto Fishburne and Hagood. If this is part of your evening commute, consider another route to avoid salt water splashing onto your car’s undercarriage.

A cold front will push offshore Tuesday allowing dry high pressure to build into the area from the west. Before the front gets offshore, though, patches of fog — perhaps dense fog — will be possible in the morning as lows only bottom out in the mid-60s, a rather warm start to the first day of November.

Slightly cooler and drier air will filter into the area once the cold front has passed, but ridging aloft will help temperatures head to about 80° once again in the afternoon with ample sunshine peeking through scattered clouds. Rain-free conditions are expected.

We keep a rain-free forecast heading into the rest of the week, with more onshore flow helping to curb temperatures closer to normal especially as we head into Thursday and Friday. 80s look to return for the weekend before our next rain chance next Monday.

A cold front is on its way through this evening, which will bring cooler temperatures for Thursday and beyond after highs peaked in the low 80s this afternoon away from the locally cooler coastline. Winds will go to the north and then the northeast overnight as high pressure builds in from the north and west. We’ll generally see scattered clouds throughout the day with those northeast winds keeping us about 5-7° cooler than we saw Wednesday. The aforementioned northeasterly winds and upcoming lunar perigee will contribute to another risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the 9:47am high tide, so be aware of the potential for closed roads once again tomorrow morning (though the peak of any tidal flooding should miss the bulk of any commute time at this point).

We’ll continue our warming trend on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that’ll come through later Wednesday. After starting around 50° thanks to clear skies and light winds, we’ll warm well into the upper 70s in the afternoon. We should see mostly sunny skies for a good bit of the day, with some higher clouds beginning to thicken later on. Rain-free conditions continue, and it should overall be another good day of weather across the area.

The only weather hazard of note will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 8:20 AM high tide. Right now, water levels are forecast to peak around 7.1-7.3′ in the harbor, which will be enough to perhaps close a couple of the more vulnerable roads on the Charleston peninsula (such as around Hagood and Fishburne as well as near the City Market).

Some of us are going to get off to a frosty start on Thursday as temperatures fall into the mid-30s overnight, perhaps threatening the record low of 34° set in 1981. A Frost Advisory will be in effect from 4-9am for inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties as this is where temperatures are most likely going to be low enough to support frost formation. I don’t know that I could totally rule some patchy frost out a little further eastward as well in more sheltered spots. Bring in plants and pets tonight to be safe.

From there, full sunshine will begin to modify the chilly airmass that’s been in place over the past couple days. Highs Thursday afternoon will still run well below climatology for this point in October, but will be a few degrees warmer than we felt Wednesday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 60s. (More on Wednesday’s temperatures in a sec.)

A cold front will move through overnight, ushering in the first really solid chill of the season for the Lowcountry. Morning lows will bottom out in the mid-50s, while cold advection within a northwesterly breeze will only allow temperatures to rise to the mid-60s in the afternoon despite almost full sunshine. These high temperatures will run some 10-15° below normal for this point in October, matching the very cool high temperatures we experienced during Hurricane Ian at the end of September (minus the hurricane part).

Overnight showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off as we head toward daybreak Thursday. We may deal with some slick roads in the morning, though, so be ready for that possibility for your commute. The good news: We’re done with the recent round of tidal flooding induced by the full moon and onshore winds, so no concerns there.

The cold front will be moving through the state throughout the day and won’t clear the area until after sunset Thursday. Ahead of the front, a few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop as temperatures recover into the low 80s in the afternoon. Drier air punching into the area will modulate that threat somewhat, but don’t be surprised to see a shower or storm in your neck of the woods in the afternoon.

Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.

Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.

Thursday will be another nice weather day across the area with a seasonable chill to start and comfortable warmth to finish. Lows will once again start in the low-to-mid-50s away from the warmer coastline, but plentiful and virtually unobscured sunshine combined with winds generally out of the southwest will help temperatures reach the low 80s in the afternoon, right on the nose for early-October climatology. Should be a nice day for getting out and about!