A warm front is lifting north across Georgia and South Carolina this evening, which will make for a warmer and more muggy day for Thursday ahead of a cold front. I’d anticipate that the forecast morning low of 57° will be set closer to midnight, followed by temperatures heading into the 60s by daybreak, topping out around 70° in the afternoon. Gusty winds will precede the front even outside of any thunderstorms — watch for gusts 30-35 MPH to potentially cause some havoc with Christmas decorations. We can expect a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two overnight into the morning ahead of the main frontal band.
The timing of the front and the extent of morning shower activity will act as a governor on any severe weather threat that could develop. Shear looks good, but instability is the question mark. Still, a few storms with gusty straight-line winds are possible, and there’s even the risk for a few of these storms to rotate. Keep an eye on the weather Thursday, particularly mid-morning through early afternoon, for any possible watches or warnings that might need to be issued.
We should be rid of the rain by evening — some of the faster guidance coming in this evening even has it out of here by mid-afternoon, with some sunshine breaking out before the day’s over — with temperatures falling into the 50s by 8 PM as cooler and drier air moves in behind the cold front.
Alas: Gray days are here again for the weekend as a wedge of high pressure drives southward across the area on Friday. We’ll see a few showers push through the area Friday morning as the wedge settles in, then more moisture will move by in the afternoon to bring another round of generally light rain. Temperatures won’t move too much beyond the morning low of 61°, with highs only in the mid-60s anticipated as cooler air moves in throughout the day (and rainfall into the wedge helps reinforce said wedge).
We’ll have a lull in the rain on Saturday, but high temperatures will generally run below normal under mostly cloudy skies, with the air struggling to warm to 60° in the afternoon. Then, another round of showers will roll through Sunday. We should see the wedge erode on Sunday as another front approaches from the north, but the degree to which this happens during the day makes the temperature forecast interesting. For now, mid-60s are in the forecast for the Charleston metro, but don’t be surprised to see this revised lower with later updates. I also wouldn’t be surprised for temperatures to not make it out of the 50s further north into Berkeley County around the Francis Marion and Lake Moultrie. Stay tuned!
After tying a record high on Wednesday (81°!), we’ll see a cold front approach our area for Thursday. The associated cloud cover will help prevent us from getting back to record warmth, but we’ll still see highs peak in the mid-70s — perhaps higher if the front struggles to get further south. We should remain rain-free, however.
We’ll see a mix of clouds and sun this weekend with a bit of a temperature rollercoaster as a front looks to sag south of the area on Sunday.
Friday will bring a very chilly start — lows in the mid-30s across much of the metro, with colder temperatures perhaps approaching freezing in some spots. Light northeast winds will make it feel a few degrees cooler, too. (Make sure pets and plants are inside tonight.) Highs in the afternoon will rebound to the mid-60s, about 5° or so warmer than we saw on Thursday. Expect scattered to broken cloud cover.
Saturday will turn warmer ahead of the aforementioned front, as highs will peak in the mid-70s. We’ll see a mix of clouds and sun continue with showers generally dissipating before they arrive.
The front should sag south of the area by Sunday, knocking temperatures back down about 10° in the afternoon with highs only peaking in the mid-60s. Showers are unlikely, though we’ll want to keep an eye out Sunday night given some model disagreement. That being said, the bulk of the weekend should get in generally rain-free, and while we might want to see more in the way of sunshine, it won’t be too bad at all.
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving Day! The next few days will be a “sunshine sandwich” — overcast and rain, followed by mostly sunny skies, followed by another round of overcast and rain. We will also continue to contend with coastal flooding with the morning high tides through Sunday.
We have a relatively mild Thanksgiving Day ahead as temperatures start in the mid-50s, about 10° above normal for this point in the year. Pesky cloud cover will remain pesky with the coastal trough lingering offshore, and a few showers will be possible before rain chances increase further after sunset as more moisture makes its way ashore. Overall, don’t be surprised to dodge a shower or two, but I suspect that a lot of us get a majority of Thanksgiving in rain-free.
Friday & the weekend: Periods of showers with a nice day in the middle
Shower chances will peak on Friday as a warm front moves by followed by a cold front moving in from the north overnight. Lows will approach 15° above normal with cloud cover and a moist airmass in place. The warm front will help temperatures reach the low 70s in the afternoon despite shower activity that’s expected to be in the area. (A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, either.) These showers will work their way out of here overnight with the aforementioned cold frontal passage.
Saturday should remain mostly dry with a mix of clouds and sun remaining in place. Temperatures will once again bottom out around 10°+ degrees above normal for another mild start followed by highs running right around 70° in the afternoon.
Showers return to the forecast Sunday as another cold front moves by the area. Once again, highs in the low 70s will follow a seasonably mild start to the day in the mid-50s. We should see showers begin to decrease later in the afternoon, paving the way for a cooler, drier, and sunnier Monday.
Coastal flooding remains a concern with morning high tides
This morning’s high tide peaked around 7.02′, which scraped minor coastal flooding thresholds. Expect additional rounds of minor to moderate salt water flooding around times of the morning’s high tide through Thanksgiving and the long weekend. High tide on Thanksgiving morning is forecast to peak around 7.5′, or moderate flood stage, around 7:43am. We should see similar results from Friday morning’s high tide which is predicted to peak around 8:34am. Minor coastal flooding is forecast for Saturday morning’s 9:29am high tide, while guidance indicates another round of flooding will be possible for Sunday morning’s 10:28am high tide. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
We’ve got another chilly weekend ahead, and this time some frosty conditions are expected. Skies will clear tonight, and with light to calm winds expected, solid radiational cooling conditions are probable, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid-30s across much of the metro. This could prompt frost issues in Charleston proper, while places such as Dorchester and inland Berkeley may see a freeze. Thus, a Freeze Warning is up for early Friday morning for inland Berkeley and Dorchester, and a Frost Advisory is in effect for Charleston and tidal Berkeley (Daniel Island, Cainhoy). Be ready to protect plants and pets!
We’ve got more clouds and chilly weather in store for Thursday after a rather chilly and somewhat dreary day across the Lowcountry. The high temperatures of 68° at the airport and 70° downtown on Wednesday were set right around midnight as cooler air filtered into the area throughout the day. We should see another near-normal morning Thursday (lows mid-40s) before temperatures once again struggle into the mid-50s in the afternoon, well below the usually nice normal November temperature around 69°. There’s a decent chance we should see a little sun before the day is out, but overall, expect more in the way of gray. Silver lining: No precipitation is expected.
Even warmer weather is in the forecast for Friday and the weekend as high pressure at the surface slips offshore and winds turn southerly. Friday will still have a semblance of a fall feel, at least in the morning, as lows dip into the upper 50s ahead of highs in the upper 70s in the afternoon.
Thereafter, a more southerly component of wind begins to kick in, and we will begin to see temperatures (and humidity) kick up another notch. Saturday and Sunday will both start in the mid-60s — some 15° above normal — with highs reaching into the low 80s each afternoon. We’ll get close to record high minimums this weekend, but don’t anticipate breaching those. (The record high minimum for Saturday is 69°, and for Sunday is 71°, both set in 2003 during a record warm stretch.) Rainfall should be largely a non-issue, though a shower or two can’t be ruled out from time to time especially later this weekend as some upper energy interacts with a surface trough to our west.
The upcoming full moon and continued onshore flow will contribute to minor coastal flooding around times of high tide beginning Friday evening. More substantial coastal flooding will be possible as we head into next week as we watch for the potential for low pressure to develop in the western Atlantic, cranking the pressure gradient and northeasterly winds. This low could drive rain chances up in our neck of the woods as well, but the forecast extent of the rain still needs some finesse. Stay tuned this weekend for updates.
If you’re looking for a return to that fall feel that we had for a couple weeks in October, you may be waiting a little while: above-normal temperatures are favored through mid-month in the eastern third of the continental US. There are some signs that the pattern might change as we head toward Thanksgiving and beyond — stay tuned, though.
High pressure wedging into the area will keep clouds and cool temperatures around for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures shouldn’t get out of the 60s on Friday with a steady northeasterly breeze and mostly cloudy skies thanks to a thin layer of moisture being lifted atop the wedge. We could see a couple more breaks in the clouds on Saturday — along with a shower or two — as highs should creep above 70°. (Beware the wedge and its uncanny ability to bust temperature forecasts, though.) A warm front will sharpen and lift through the area on Sunday ahead of a cold front on Monday; this will help highs recover to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Moisture remains very shallow, but a shower or two can’t be totally ruled out in the evening hours.
The main weather hazard will continue to be coastal flooding thanks to continued astronomical influences from the lunar perigee and northeasterly winds. Friday morning’s high tide is expected to peak between 7.6-7.8′ in the harbor around 10:37am, which will be high enough to cause scattered road closures in downtown Charleston, particularly around the edges of the peninsula, a few hours on either side of that tide. Similar conditions are expected with Saturday morning’s high tide, forecast to peak a little after 11:30am. Water levels are expected to run a touch lower with the midday Sunday high tide, but should still be plenty high enough to produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, once again likely closing some roads. The good news is that any rain that falls won’t be very heavy at all, and won’t be enough to exacerbate any ongoing flooding.
