Even warmer weather is in the forecast for Friday and the weekend as high pressure at the surface slips offshore and winds turn southerly. Friday will still have a semblance of a fall feel, at least in the morning, as lows dip into the upper 50s ahead of highs in the upper 70s in the afternoon.
Thereafter, a more southerly component of wind begins to kick in, and we will begin to see temperatures (and humidity) kick up another notch. Saturday and Sunday will both start in the mid-60s — some 15° above normal — with highs reaching into the low 80s each afternoon. We’ll get close to record high minimums this weekend, but don’t anticipate breaching those. (The record high minimum for Saturday is 69°, and for Sunday is 71°, both set in 2003 during a record warm stretch.) Rainfall should be largely a non-issue, though a shower or two can’t be ruled out from time to time especially later this weekend as some upper energy interacts with a surface trough to our west.
The upcoming full moon and continued onshore flow will contribute to minor coastal flooding around times of high tide beginning Friday evening. More substantial coastal flooding will be possible as we head into next week as we watch for the potential for low pressure to develop in the western Atlantic, cranking the pressure gradient and northeasterly winds. This low could drive rain chances up in our neck of the woods as well, but the forecast extent of the rain still needs some finesse. Stay tuned this weekend for updates.
If you’re looking for a return to that fall feel that we had for a couple weeks in October, you may be waiting a little while: above-normal temperatures are favored through mid-month in the eastern third of the continental US. There are some signs that the pattern might change as we head toward Thanksgiving and beyond — stay tuned, though.
High pressure wedging into the area will keep clouds and cool temperatures around for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures shouldn’t get out of the 60s on Friday with a steady northeasterly breeze and mostly cloudy skies thanks to a thin layer of moisture being lifted atop the wedge. We could see a couple more breaks in the clouds on Saturday — along with a shower or two — as highs should creep above 70°. (Beware the wedge and its uncanny ability to bust temperature forecasts, though.) A warm front will sharpen and lift through the area on Sunday ahead of a cold front on Monday; this will help highs recover to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Moisture remains very shallow, but a shower or two can’t be totally ruled out in the evening hours.
The main weather hazard will continue to be coastal flooding thanks to continued astronomical influences from the lunar perigee and northeasterly winds. Friday morning’s high tide is expected to peak between 7.6-7.8′ in the harbor around 10:37am, which will be high enough to cause scattered road closures in downtown Charleston, particularly around the edges of the peninsula, a few hours on either side of that tide. Similar conditions are expected with Saturday morning’s high tide, forecast to peak a little after 11:30am. Water levels are expected to run a touch lower with the midday Sunday high tide, but should still be plenty high enough to produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, once again likely closing some roads. The good news is that any rain that falls won’t be very heavy at all, and won’t be enough to exacerbate any ongoing flooding.
A cold front is on its way through this evening, which will bring cooler temperatures for Thursday and beyond after highs peaked in the low 80s this afternoon away from the locally cooler coastline. Winds will go to the north and then the northeast overnight as high pressure builds in from the north and west. We’ll generally see scattered clouds throughout the day with those northeast winds keeping us about 5-7° cooler than we saw Wednesday. The aforementioned northeasterly winds and upcoming lunar perigee will contribute to another risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the 9:47am high tide, so be aware of the potential for closed roads once again tomorrow morning (though the peak of any tidal flooding should miss the bulk of any commute time at this point).
We’re back to the 70s starting Friday as the chilly airmass that’s brought us a couple mornings in the 30s continues to moderate. You’ll still want a hoodie in the morning as lows bottom out in the mid-40s, but it won’t be quite as cold as the past two mornings. The forecast high of 70° is still several degrees below climatology for this point in October, though.
We turn even warmer for the weekend. Lows in the 50s are anticipated for Saturday & Sunday, with highs in the mid-70s expected both days with just a few clouds from time to time. It’ll be another great weekend to get out and about.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find much in the way of rain for the foreseeable future; the extended NWS forecast remains quite dry, with a small chance of a shower or two mid-week as a weak front passes by. Temperatures will climb to slightly above normal for early next week before the front cools things off slightly.
Some of us are going to get off to a frosty start on Thursday as temperatures fall into the mid-30s overnight, perhaps threatening the record low of 34° set in 1981. A Frost Advisory will be in effect from 4-9am for inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties as this is where temperatures are most likely going to be low enough to support frost formation. I don’t know that I could totally rule some patchy frost out a little further eastward as well in more sheltered spots. Bring in plants and pets tonight to be safe.
From there, full sunshine will begin to modify the chilly airmass that’s been in place over the past couple days. Highs Thursday afternoon will still run well below climatology for this point in October, but will be a few degrees warmer than we felt Wednesday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 60s. (More on Wednesday’s temperatures in a sec.)
No weather worries as we head into Friday and the weekend as comfortable temperatures take hold behind a cold front coming through overnight.
Friday looks outstanding. Lows in the mid-50s will rebound to the mid-to-upper 70s under full sunshine. Dewpoints below 50° (away from the coast, anyway) will keep things quite comfortable. Winds behind the front will be generally light, generally around 5 MPH from the north. Friday could be one of those rare Severely Nice Weather Alert Days around here, that’s for sure.
Saturday could also qualify as a Severely Nice Weather Alert Day. We’ll start a little cooler — low 50s will be common away from the warmer coastline — and head into the upper 70s under continued uninterrupted sunshine. Winds will be quite light, generally out of the east.
We begin to turn a touch warmer on Sunday as winds go southwesterly ahead of our next front. (More on that in a minute.) Temperatures will run in the low 80s with a few clouds in the afternoon. Sunday’s weather remains excellent, though, and will be a little more palatable to those who like it a little warmer. Something for everyone this weekend!
Overnight showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off as we head toward daybreak Thursday. We may deal with some slick roads in the morning, though, so be ready for that possibility for your commute. The good news: We’re done with the recent round of tidal flooding induced by the full moon and onshore winds, so no concerns there.
The cold front will be moving through the state throughout the day and won’t clear the area until after sunset Thursday. Ahead of the front, a few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop as temperatures recover into the low 80s in the afternoon. Drier air punching into the area will modulate that threat somewhat, but don’t be surprised to see a shower or storm in your neck of the woods in the afternoon.
We stay seasonably warm for Friday & the weekend, even with a cold front swinging through later Saturday. Friday’s going to be the warmest day of the set with the most unencumbered sunshine and some compressional heating ahead of the cold front helping to drive highs to around the low to mid-80s. A few more clouds will mark the approach and passage of the front Saturday, but no rain is expected; expect temperatures back in the low 80s ahead of the front Saturday afternoon. Winds go northeasterly on Sunday and will help to cool things down a touch. Expect highs to run in the upper 70s, generally a few clicks below early-to-mid-October normals, but not quite the chill we saw in the immediate wake of Ian last week.
Thursday will be another nice weather day across the area with a seasonable chill to start and comfortable warmth to finish. Lows will once again start in the low-to-mid-50s away from the warmer coastline, but plentiful and virtually unobscured sunshine combined with winds generally out of the southwest will help temperatures reach the low 80s in the afternoon, right on the nose for early-October climatology. Should be a nice day for getting out and about!
We’ve got one more hot day in store for Thursday before the weather takes a turn for the fantastic for Friday and the weekend. Compressional heating ahead of a cold front will drive highs into the mid-90s for Thursday afternoon, perhaps approaching the record high of 96° set in 1990 at the airport. Downtown could very well tie or break the record high of 92° set in 1925, too. Mix in a little bit of humidity and it’ll feel closer to the upper 90s (though heat indices should stay south of 100° as the deep-layer dry air helps to mix out dewpoints to the mid-60s). There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening hours as the front passes by, but don’t expect anything too heinous as there’s still plenty of dry air to overcome for much in the way of active weather.
