We’ll get a break in the more widespread rain as we head back to work and school on Tuesday as the surface configuration briefly turns a little more summer-like. We won’t stay completely rain-free — isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon — but it certainly will be a bit of a shift from where we’ve been. The lower shower and storm coverage means temperatures will head to the low 90s in the afternoon; mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to 101-102°. We’ll repeat this on Wednesday before another front moves into the area by Thursday. Said front will once again stall out nearby — just not enough oomph yet to get these through at this point in the season — and keep us very unsettled from Thursday through Friday and into the weekend. This will send temperatures down to the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 80s on Friday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon. Heavy rain will be possible, and we may not get out of this week without another bout with flooding somewhere in the metro. Stay tuned to forecast updates.
As we head into mid-week and look to round the corner toward Labor Day weekend, we’re going to see a reduction in shower and thunderstorm coverage for a few days as some drier air aloft works in from the north and west. We’ll keep isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast as those probabilities won’t be totally eliminated, particularly near the coast, but we shouldn’t see the sustained flooding rains that have been a concern the past couple days. Areas further inland could even see a rain-free couple days, especially on Thursday as a front clears the area and stalls to our south.
As rain chances diminish, temperatures turn back up to a little above normal as we close out August and enter September. Expect highs around 90° for Wednesday; mix in the plentiful humidity and it’ll feel closer to 100-102°. Thursday will run pretty warm, too, with highs around 90° and heat indices in the upper 90s once again expected. Rain chances begin to tick back up on Friday, and that’ll lead to high temperatures topping out a little lower than the previous couple days, generally in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Unsettled weather looks to continue as we close out the work week. Wednesday will represent a little break from more of the widespread rain that we’ve seen of late. However, the atmosphere is still plenty juiced, and daytime heating will help fire off scattered showers and thunderstorms as a result. Bouts of heavy rain are expected, and more flood advisories are possible.
Rain chances head back into the likely category Thursday and Friday as another front moves into the area along with some energy rippling in aloft. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms should redevelop each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rain and maybe some flooding continuing to loom. Exact timing on where and how much it will rain is impossible to know this far out — just know that some of you could see some very heavy rain, while others may see lighter amounts overall.
Temperatures will remain suppressed to the mid-80s each afternoon thanks to cloud cover and nearby showers and storms. Mix in humidity, though, and it’ll feel like the low to mid-90s especially if and when the sun peeks out from time to time.
Looking for rain relief this weekend? I wouldn’t bet on it; we’ll still see decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially each afternoon heading into next week. At least temperatures will remain capped in the mid-80s, which doesn’t feel so bad at this point in the year.
Unsettled — but somewhat cooler — weather continues this week, particularly Thursday into Friday as areas of low pressure along a lingering front as well as impulses around a persistent upper trough help enhance rain chances across the area.
Wednesday will be the driest of the set. As of this writing, the front is driving southward into Georgia, and should stay to our south for much of the day, keeping us in cooler and slightly drier air. While this won’t totally suppress the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, it certainly will keep coverage generally isolated to scattered at best for the first day of school in Charleston County. Highs will top out in the mid-80s, which should make for a reasonably nice day all things considered (though dewpoints around 70° will still feel muggy).
Rain chances begin to ramp up late Wednesday night into Thursday as surface low pressure moves along the front, drawing the boundary a little more north. At the same time, the trough aloft pivots enough to put us in the right entrance region of a jet streak, helping to enhance lift. This combination will make for an unsettled Thursday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected across the area. Heavy rain will be a concern, and we’ll need to keep a close watch for isolated flooding potential. The widespread rain and onshore flow just behind the stalled front should keep Thursday’s high temperatures suppressed to the low 80s.
Friday will run a touch warmer (mid-80s) with a little less coverage of storms to start the day, but showers and thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon after mixing some daytime heating in along with the specter of additional disturbances rounding the base of the upper trough and the persistent stalled front. Heavy rain will once again be a concern with the strongest storms.
This unsettled pattern looks to persist into the weekend as the front continues to meander and weaken, while temperatures turn warmer, closer to mid-August norms.
After a relatively quiet Tuesday, we’ll start to see rain chances trend back up starting Wednesday as a trough develops aloft and a cold front presses southward, which will eventually stall out somewhere in the area over the weekend. We still stay quite warm Wednesday into Thursday as highs top out in the low 90s and heat indices top out in the low 100s. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should develop along the seabreeze in the early afternoon and move inland as the day progresses. Same deal for Thursday, though we could see some additional coverage sprout up as the trough digs in a bit more down the East Coast and the front starts to drive southward a little more. By Friday, the front will be getting closer, and this will instigate greater shower and storm coverage as a result. Temperatures will also run a little cooler — by cooler, I mean upper 80s instead of low 90s — thanks to the more widespread cloud cover and rain coverage.
Heading into the weekend, we look to stay unsettled for at least part of Saturday, but drier air will be punching into the area. We should see a taste of mid-60s dewpoints starting Saturday afternoon, leading into what should be a rather gorgeous (by mid-August standards) Sunday. Fingers crossed these trends in the models continue — typically, it is still tough to get fronts this far south at this point in August, but then again, July’s deluge courtesy of southward-pushing fronts showed us that this hasn’t been a very typical summer. Stay tuned.
We’ll be closing out the last work week of July with a good bit of heat as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Air temperatures will run into the mid-90s each afternoon, while humidity on top will make it feel well into the mid-100s. While heat indices will not reach the post-July 1 heat advisory criteria of 110°, it’ll still be enough to elevate the risk of heat-related illness. Make sure you’re getting plenty of fluids and taking plenty of shady breaks during the heat of the afternoon if you must be outdoors. Low temperatures will run quite warm as well, only bottoming out in the upper 70s away from the coast. Downtown and coastal communities may not see lows dip below 80° for several days. This lack of any real cooling off can add to cumulative heat stress over time.
The aforementioned high pressure will keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms to a minimum, with only isolated coverage expected along and ahead of the seabreeze on Wednesday and Thursday, with unmentionably low rain chances on Friday. It’s hard to stay totally rain-free this time of year, but don’t expect much out of storms over the next few days.
Our warm and occasionally stormy pattern stays in place of the rest of the work week as we remain under the influence of a broad trough aloft. Wednesday will yield another stormy afternoon with a low-end severe weather risk as a disturbance in the mid-levels moves across the Carolinas; if a storm turns severe, damaging wind gusts would be the main issue. Otherwise, it’s another hot and humid day — highs top out around 90° in the afternoon with heat indices once again peaking around 100-102° before storms develop and disrupt the temperature curve.
Thursday should run a little quieter with a little less mid-level energy in play, but we’ll still see the usual spate of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze. Temperatures will run a little warmer Thursday, with air temperatures in the low 90s and associated humidity yielding heat indices running around 105° in the afternoon. A cold front will sink southward toward the Carolinas on Friday; this will make showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours a little more likely. Temperatures on Friday continue in the low 90s with heat indices in the low to mid-100s.
Rain chances look to taper off as we get into the weekend, with scattered storms possible Saturday and more isolated storm coverage than we’ve seen in a little while expected on Sunday. It’ll stay muggy with lows in the mid-70s and highs in the low 90s each day.
The rest of the work week will remain unsettled and turn even more so as we close it out thanks to another cold front moving into the area. Wednesday will maintain a more standard summer-like feel with highs in the low 90s and afternoon thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze. By Thursday, though, we’ll start to see rain chances head back into the “likely” category once again as the aforementioned front moves in and stalls out. This’ll stick around into Friday, with perhaps even more coverage of showers and storms helping to keep highs in the mid-80s. Heavy rain continues to be a concern with any storms that fire — the atmosphere remains very juiced up — and we’ll certainly see a lightning risk with storms as well.
High tides on Wednesday and Thursday evenings will once again be capable of producing minor salt water flooding in coastal areas including downtown Charleston. We should be okay rain-wise on Wednesday, but on Thursday, we’ll want to keep a close eye on where the heavy rain is in case it coincides with the flooding high tide. Regardless of where the rain is, be ready for additional Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
The rest of the work week will remain quite warm and steamy as a tropical airmass stays in the area for the next several days. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature more typical summertime popup showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons while heat indices soar into the 100s both days (with 105°+ heat indices possible Wednesday). As is typical, a stronger storm or two can’t be ruled out, and given the airmass in place, pockets of heavy rain could develop, perhaps causing some localized flooding. We’ll also want to keep an eye on any disturbances that develop and ride around the periphery of an upper ridge that’ll be centered to our west; both the NAM and GFS seem to be trying to sniff something out along these lines for late Wednesday/early Thursday. Only time will tell whether this is legit or not.
We’ll see an uptick in shower and storm coverage Thursday and Friday as the ridge retrogrades a little further west and atmospheric moisture increases. We could see precipitable water values in excess of 2.2-2.3″ as we close out the work week, which would be a ripe atmosphere for very heavy rain in any thunderstorms that can develop. Scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms appears probable. Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-to-upper 70s, and heat indices probably running over 105° once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire.
In other words: It must be July in the Lowcountry.
After some much-needed rain fell across the area — with upwards of 2-4” in many spots near the coast, particularly around Mt. Pleasant — more is in store overnight tonight into Wednesday as a stalled front continues to linger in the area. Mid-level energy will traverse the area and should initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. We’ll want to keep an eye on the risk for waterspouts again in the morning, too, though whether it’s a repeat of today’s performance remains to be seen.
The front will eventually wash out later Wednesday, but we’ll still have plenty of moisture in the area and surface triggers in the form of a coastal trough and other mesoscale boundaries to help maintain solid rain chances Thursday and Friday.
The rain will continue to keep high temperatures suppressed into the mid-80s each afternoon. Thunderstorms will certainly act as a temperature disruptor, and as a result, the timing for places to reach those highs — if they’re reached at all! — could vary widely across the Tri-County.
Moisture looks to hang around for the holiday weekend, and it’s increasingly likely we’ll at least be dodging some afternoon thunderstorms for the Fourth of July. Will continue to keep an eye on this as we get closer, but for now, the advice is to make sure you’ve got a good second, indoor option for your Independence Day festivities.
