The week ahead will start fairly quiet and warm before turning more unsettled for the second half into the weekend as a cold front stalls nearby.

The week ahead will get off to a rather stormy start as a stalled front continues to keep the risk for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday, a few of which could be on the strong to severe side (especially on Monday). We cool off briefly mid-week before 80s return ahead of another front for the weekend, making for a possibly muggy Bridge Run.

Our bout of chilly weather will be giving way to a warming trend as the week goes on with little in the way of precipitation to speak of.

The main weather story for the week ahead will be a solid round of much cooler air affecting the area around mid-week. Some spots, generally inland of the coast, may run into trouble with some frost or freezing temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (and perhaps again Wednesday night into Thursday morning).

If you’ve enjoyed this stretch of exceptionally warm weather for this point in the year, savor the next couple days as we will be cooling off by mid-week, with this cooler weather looking to persist for a while as the pattern flips more favorably for below-normal temperatures for much of the continental US.

We’re back in the 80s starting today as much warmer-than-normal temperatures continue across the Lowcountry. We may once again threaten record highs over the next few days with temperatures topping out in the low to mid-80s each day through Friday. Lows in the mid-60s most days (except for Wednesday, the result of a weak front) will also challenge record high minimum temperatures across the region — indeed, this remains unusually warm weather for this point in the year and The Pollening should, unfortunately, continue apace.

Changes are coming later this week for the weekend, though. A strong cold front looks to approach the area Thursday into Friday, which will shift the airmass more substantially and get temperatures back within striking distance of early March normals. This will come with the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, with strong winds expected even outside of thunderstorms. We’ll want to watch this closely for later this week, but there’s still model difference right now in the exact track of the storm system. Stay tuned.

Regardless of what pans out with the severe weather threat, we’ll have a much more seasonable — but still warmer-than-normal — weekend ahead with highs topping out in the low 70s Saturday and the upper 60s on Sunday. Lows will fall back to earth as well, with the first lows in the 40s since February 20 in the forecast. The good news in all this is that we should see plenty of sunshine this weekend to go along with the more comfortable temperatures. (Just take some precautions against the pollen if you are sensitive to it.)

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep very warm temperatures in the forecast for much of the week with no rain to show for it as strong subtropical ridging more characteristic of late spring/summer builds across the area. Put another way: It’s a scary week to be a record high at the North Charleston climate site.

As has been true of the pattern for much of 2023 thus far, rain will have long since departed by Monday, which should end up being a rather beautiful day after starting in the upper 30s. Few, if any, clouds are expected as high pressure builds in; highs top out in the mid-60s. Another similarly beautiful, if not slightly warmer, day is on tap for Tuesday as highs approach 70° in the afternoon — really hard to ask much more for Valentine’s Day.

70s return in full force by Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and winds go back to the south. We’ll see this accompanied by an increase in cloud cover through Thursday ahead of another cold front. Rain returns Friday, but shouldn’t be quite as much as we saw with this past weekend’s storm system, nor will it hang around as long. Cooler high pressure returns for the weekend, with highs in the mid-50s for Saturday but rebounding quickly into the the upper 60s for Sunday. At least it won’t be raining — feels like forever since we had a rain-free weekend!

Unseasonable warmth lies ahead for a good chunk of the upcoming work week before showers, maybe some storms, and then more seasonable temperatures arrive for the weekend.

“Unsettled” is probably the best way to put this week’s forecast as we expect periods of showers throughout the period.