We’ll start out another work week with pretty nice weather in the wake of a cool front (can’t really call it cold with temperatures rebounding into the 80s, but the airmass will at least be drier!) before seeing another front by mid-week potentially bringing some unsettled weather.
Temperatures will start out this week in the 80s on the afternoons and mid-50s to around 60° in the mornings as high pressure moves through the area both at the surface and aloft. After a couple days of tranquil weather, cloud cover will thicken up on Wednesday as a cold front gets closer to the area. A few showers aren’t totally out of the question in the afternoon.
Forecast confidence gets a little iffy as we get into Thursday, with some timing differences in the models — the ECMWF is faster in getting the cold front through, while the GFS is about 12-18 hours slower — and thus invites some questions in when rain will move through the area. Indeed, NWS notes that forecast confidence is pretty low headed into the weekend as model differences persist. So, stay tuned as the details get sorted out, and don’t cancel any plans just yet.
After quite a cold snap closed out last week, temperatures will be back at or a little above normal as we get into the first full week of April. There will be plenty of sunshine in the offing particularly Monday through Wednesday as high pressure maintains firm control over our weather. Lows will start out in the upper 40s on Monday but will warm into the mid-50s by Wednesday morning. Highs will generally run in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Changes begin to show up in the form of at least a few more clouds for Thursday as a storm system starts shoving the surface high offshore, allowing for some more moisture return. There’s an outside shot at a few showers Thursday evening, but the better rain chances will be ahead of the storm system’s cold front on Friday. We could see a few thunderstorms in the mix as well. The front will get through Saturday, but lingering moisture keeps rain chances in the forecast for most of the weekend. It doesn’t look like a washout, though, and as always, we’ll have time to fine-tune the details throughout the week. For now, enjoy the warm sun!
Spring, being a transitional season, will often give you its share of weather whiplash. This is going to be one of those weeks where your jacket and shorts should stay within equal reach.
We start the week with high pressure asserting control over our weather, albeit briefly. It’ll be much cooler — we’ll start Monday in the low 50s. Late-March sunshine will be enough to push temperatures into the upper 60s, but that is still a little cooler than normal for this time of year. Temperatures moderate a bit on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, but we’ll also see shower chances return to the picture as well.
Our best thunderstorm chances this week come Wednesday into early Thursday as a warm front lifts north across the area followed by a strong cold front. We could warm to around 80° on Wednesday post-warm frontal passage before the mercury comes crashing back down to earth for Thursday, when temperatures will struggle to 60°. Frost and freeze issues could very well come into play Friday morning as temperatures dip to the mid-30s in the immediate Charleston Metro Area with colder temperatures, perhaps flirting with freezing, further inland. The high on Friday should only top out in the mid-50s despite ample sunshine, owing to the abnormally chilly airmass working its way into the area to help get April started out on a chilly note. The early April sun angle will help modify this airmass, though, with temperatures warming back to around normal by Sunday. It’ll be a nice weekend to get outside with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity levels expected.
We’ll be warming up as the week goes on — the last full week of March, already! — with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible beginning Tuesday night. The next significant storm system on the docket is expected to arrive sometime Thursday or Friday, but persistent low pressure keeps rain chances in the picture well before that.
Gusty winds will continue overnight into Monday, with 30-40 MPH gusts possible near the coast and on bridges. This is due to a tight pressure gradient between a wedge of high pressure inland and a surface low migrating northeastward off the coast. Northeast winds look to relax a little on Tuesday, but could still be gusty at times near the coast. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for Monday — not a great beach day, for sure.
Unsettled weather returns to the picture this week as a series of fronts stall out across the area, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances starting late Monday into much of the rest of the week. Temperatures will be on quite the rollercoaster as well; after topping out at 80° today, we drop back to 61° for Monday as a cold air damming wedge builds southwest across the area, bringing cooler air and gusty northeast winds. Moisture will increase throughout the day, and we will begin to see showers possibly as early as Monday evening, with better rain chances arriving overnight into Tuesday.
After the stalled cold front lifts back north across the area as a warm front on Tuesday (and there is a big question on just how far north it will lift, perhaps making 71° a tad optimistic), low pressure will traverse the area, keeping showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the forecast into Wednesday. We could see a line of strong to even severe storms swing through the area ahead of a cold front on Thursday; this will certainly be something to watch over the coming days, but it’s impossible to nail down the details this far in advance given consequential model timing differences (as one would expect at this range).
By Friday, another cool wedge of high pressure looks to build in across the area from northeast to southwest, keeping cloud cover around and temperatures down in the low 60s, well below normal for mid-March. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some shower chances enter the picture near the coast on Sunday, but right now the NWS forecast is rain-free.
High pressure will be the main factor in our weather throughout the week, keeping things dry and warming us up to the upper 70s for at least the first part of the weekend.
A freeze is expected inland of Highway 17 tonight, with scattered to widespread frost elsewhere. Be sure pets and plants are protected; if you live further inland, consider dripping a faucet as temperatures could dip into the upper 20s there. Frosty conditions will be possible again on Tuesday morning across much of the area, and a Frost Advisory may be needed.
Otherwise, though, expect temperatures to gradually warm up as the week goes on. High pressure will slip offshore, and the southerly return flow will help temperatures rise into the 70s by mid-week. There will be clouds from time to time, but no measurable rain is expected for several days. Our next chance of rain could come Sunday, but that is even right now at such a low probability that it isn’t mentioned in the NWS forecast.
We begin meteorological spring with one more day in the 70s and increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front. The front will push southward across the area late Monday, leaving us significantly cooler for Tuesday and beyond. (I hope you’ve not put your sweaters away yet!)
The cold front will stall somewhere near the Gulf Coast, and low pressure will spin up and traverse it. Rain chances will come up ahead of this low pressure system later Tuesday, with widespread showers expected on Wednesday. Once low pressure departs, we should get a couple dry days in before a coastal trough possibly generates a few showers in the area on Saturday afternoon. High pressure is projected to usher this trough away from the area for Sunday.
I suspect the temperature shift back to below normal is going to be a bit of a jolt, especially after closing February with a weekend featuring highs in the 80s each day. Normal highs for the first week of March are around 66-67°, and it just doesn’t look like we’re going to get there this week.
Rain chances will make a brief return to start the week, but without the ridiculous tap of moisture that characterized the last few rainstorms. The recent deluge has led to river flooding in spots on the Edisto as well as on the Santee at Jamestown, with homes being threatened in Ridgeville. Overall, though, expect a quieter week of weather with warmer temperatures than we’ve been used to.
As mentioned before, Monday starts ahead of a cold front with scattered showers coming onshore for a fair bit of the day. However, the best chance of showers will be in the afternoon and evening hours as the front passes. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and could even crack 70° in a few spots.
Tuesday through Thursday look really nice, with ample sunshine and progressively warmer temperatures, again potentially touching 70° on Thursday.
Our next rain chance arrives Friday afternoon in the wake of another front. Isolated showers will be possible each afternoon through the weekend, but right now we should not see any washouts. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal.
This is the last week of meteorological winter; meteorological spring begins on March 1st. (Meteorologists and climatologists use March 1 to mark the start of spring as it is a consistent point for record-keeping. The vernal equinox, which ushers in the more traditionally accepted definition of spring, is on March 20.)
It’s been quite a soggy weekend, with rain totals in many spots exceeding 1″ just today as seemingly relentless moisture pushed atop a cold air damming wedge, keeping the weather wet and chilly as temperatures have barely left the low 40s over the past two days.
Well, the good news is that things are changing, and that we will even see the sun at times this week! (The weekend looks good, too!) But, there will be more unsettled weather before it’s all said and done.
Enjoy the rain-free conditions on Monday, because we’re back to wet weather at times through perhaps Sunday morning. Temperatures will at least run at or a little above normal for much of the week with zonal flow and perhaps even a little ridging aloft, keeping a well-advertised intrusion of Arctic air for much of the northern continental United States at bay for at least the next several days.
The current forecast shows rain chances diminishing Saturday and Sunday in the wake of a cold front, with below-normal temperatures for Valentine’s Day. It’s worth noting that there is a fair bit of model spread as we get into the weekend, so be keeping an eye on forecast updates as some details will need to be fine-tuned.
Despite some of the apps’ best attempts this past Friday, winter weather is not indicated in the forecast, and there is decreasing support for this scenario unfolding from the ensemble of global model runs as the southern extent of a potent Arctic air intrusion into the continental United States appears to be retreating significantly. There has been a noted bias in the models when they get out to the longer range to try to bring Arctic air much further south than it ultimately ends up, and so far, this appears to be one of those times. If things change and it looks legit, I and the rest of the #chswx enterprise will be sure to let you know! 🙂
