The air on Wednesday evening is fairly glorious — dewpoints in the mid-60s behind the seabreeze, with even some 50s dewpoints ahead of it — thanks to a cold front that pushed through earlier in the day. We’ll keep some of this dry air around for Thursday, which will keep the high of 92° feeling closer to 93-94°. We’ll see a few clouds across the area, but otherwise, it’ll be another reasonably pleasant late-August day.
Tuesday will be another rather warm day across the Lowcountry. After we topped out at 95° on Monday, temperatures should head a little higher on Tuesday, back into the mid-90s once again under partly cloudy skies. Peak heat indices will range from near 105° inland to around 108° closer to the coast where the higher-dewpoint air will be found. This is in the range where heat illness becomes an escalated concern, so be sure to take the normal heat precautions if you’re out and about Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are unlikely given ridging aloft, but a stray shower can never be totally ruled out.
We have a generally quiet week on tap as high pressure is the dominant weather player across the central and eastern US. It’s going to be warm, especially to start the week as dewpoints in the low-to-mid-70s combine with air temperatures in the mid-90s to yield heat indices around 102° on Monday and 105°+ on Tuesday under partly cloudy skies. A front might allow for a couple storms Wednesday before quiet weather resumes to close out the work week. It’ll be a little “cooler” and drier behind the front — dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70° and air temperatures in the low 90s will still run above normal, but heat indices should remain in check as drier air mixes down and limits cloud cover. Isolated storm chances return Saturday afternoon, with a better chance of storms on Sunday as another front approaches the area.
Sunday’s forecast looks fairly similar to Saturday’s: We’ll start the day in the mid-70s and head toward around 90° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Heat indices will top out around 100-101°, with perhaps locally higher values closer to the coast. A scattering of showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible as the seabreeze presses inland, with heavy rain a continued concern with decent low-level moisture still in place. Ridging developing aloft will keep a lid on widespread coverage of showers and storms.
After what ended up being quite a hot weekend, we have a day or two more of advisory-level heat (maybe even warning-level heat in a few spots) before a front moves into the area and brings some more unsettled weather for a few days.
Not too much to write home about in the weather department for the rest of the work week — just more in the way of heat, humidity, and a slight uptick in showers and storms as we head toward Friday.
Air temperature-wise, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the rest of the work week with highs topping out in the mid-90s. However, drier mid-level air will mix down to the surface during the heat of the day, and this will help keep heat indices around 100-101°. (Not great, but it could be worse.) The aforementioned dry mid-levels should keep most, if not all, shower and storm activity at bay, though you can never truly rule any stray shower or storm out during this point of the year.
Moisture starts to return Thursday, and this manifests itself with a little higher heat index in the afternoon — approaching 105° — and a slightly better (but still low) chance of seabreeze thunderstorms. Friday could see a little better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms as heat indices top out over 105° at peak heating. (Remember, heat advisory criteria for July 1 and beyond is 110° for two hours.) Overall, there’s nothing in this forecast that’s terribly out of bounds for this point in the year — just mind the heat and be ready to head inside if a thunderstorm gets close.
Tuesday’s forecast looks relatively benign across the area as partly cloudy skies dominate thanks to increasingly drier air aloft. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the coast before highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should top out in the low 100s with low-70s dewpoints across the area. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out along the seabreeze, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.
Standard July warmth and mugginess will continue on Sunday. We’ll start the day in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, and we should get the first part of the day in rain-free. From there, we’ll start to see showers and thunderstorms develop by mid-afternoon and make their way into the area from the west and southwest throughout the rest of the evening. The strongest storms could produce strong wind gusts, while heavy rain and frequent lightning will be more widespread concerns. Be ready to bring outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.
Air temperatures return to more reasonable levels for mid-July this weekend as a trough digs in a bit more, nudging the ridge that had brought us quite a hot stretch back to the west. It will also improve shower and thunderstorm chances across the area starting Saturday afternoon. Granted, it will still be humid, and heat indices on Saturday in particular will head back north of 100°, but not quite as high as we’ve seen the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms should fire in the afternoon and evening as disturbances round the base of the trough. One or two of these storms could produce strong wind gusts. Be ready for rapidly changing conditions, but don’t cancel any outdoor plans, either.
Sunday could be a little more active as another disturbance passes by. It could instigate scattered storms by midday, but they’ll be more likely in the afternoon. Again, not expecting a washout by any stretch, but be ready to bring outdoor plans inside if thunderstorms approach your location. Highs top out in the low 90s Sunday with heat indices approaching 100°.
A fairly standard mid-July weekend lies ahead across the metro area. Highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s each day after starting out in the mid-to-upper 70s. The seabreeze will be the main instigator for afternoon and evening thunderstorms; as is customary for this point in the year, heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main threats, with gusty winds possible within the strongest storms. Severe or not, all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors.