We transition back to a more active pattern beginning Thursday as a front gets through and stalls out nearby while the upper-air configuration aims a steady stream of moisture and disturbances at us for a few days. While it looks like we start the day mostly dry, expect showers and storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will be locally heavy at times, with the potential for isolated bouts of freshwater flooding. The increase in cloud cover and shower activity will help limit highs to the mid-80s, some 10° cooler than we’ve experienced the past couple days.

Tides will begin running well into flood stage in Charleston Harbor around the evening high tides beginning Thursday. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast Thursday evening around the 7:22 PM high tide, and this should be enough to close a few roads downtown regardless of any rain. If it rains heavily, of course, this will certainly lead to a more widespread flooding event, so we’ll be watching downtown closely on Thursday and over the next few evenings in general.

Rain chances continue to head up Friday into the weekend as precipitable water values surge well past 2″. The risk for flooding will increase accordingly across the area, and mixing in the higher tides, we could be in for a busy few days downtown. Stay tuned to forecast updates as we close out the work week and head into the weekend.

We will get one more day of relatively sparse thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday before the pattern becomes more active again starting Thursday. Highs will once again head into the low 90s across much of the area, and a few mid-90s readings can’t be ruled out either. 90s should reach all the way into downtown once again, too, as westerly winds pin the seabreeze to the immediate coast. As mentioned, a shower or storm can’t be ruled out in the afternoon and evening hours, with the best rain chances inland near an advancing cold front.

On Thursday, a strong influx of Gulf moisture opens up across the area. This, combined with the aforementioned front coming through and subsequently stalling out, will keep us quite unsettled as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be modulated back to the mid-80s as numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop by afternoon. Friday remains unsettled as well, and some guidance suggests that could be a particularly rainy day, perhaps suppressing highs to the low 80s at best.

We will need to keep an eye on Thursday and Friday evening’s high tides for the potential for salt water flooding, too. Onshore flow combined with the upcoming full moon should drive water levels over 7′ each evening. These tides combined with the potential for heavy rain could spell another round or two of trouble for downtown Charleston — certainly something that will be watched quite carefully over the next few days. Stay tuned for forecast updates as rain timings and amounts become a little clearer as we get those soggier days into range of the higher-resolution model suite.

We’ll get a break in the more widespread rain as we head back to work and school on Tuesday as the surface configuration briefly turns a little more summer-like. We won’t stay completely rain-free — isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon — but it certainly will be a bit of a shift from where we’ve been. The lower shower and storm coverage means temperatures will head to the low 90s in the afternoon; mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to 101-102°. We’ll repeat this on Wednesday before another front moves into the area by Thursday. Said front will once again stall out nearby — just not enough oomph yet to get these through at this point in the season — and keep us very unsettled from Thursday through Friday and into the weekend. This will send temperatures down to the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 80s on Friday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon. Heavy rain will be possible, and we may not get out of this week without another bout with flooding somewhere in the metro. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

Labor Day looks to feature an uptick in shower and storm coverage when compared to Sunday’s relatively quiet weather, but it still doesn’t look like a situation where outdoor plans will be totally washed out. After a little drier air worked its way into the area for Sunday, more moisture will move back in from the southwest for Monday. We could start the day with some showers and storms advancing northeastward across the area with some brief downpours embedded. Then, the seabreeze should kick in during the afternoon and help develop more showers and thunderstorms, which will progress inland with time. Heavy rain is the main concern from any thunderstorms; with precipitable water values over 2″, there will be a risk for flooding in a few spots where heavy rain repeats on itself. Of course, lightning will be a concern as well — as always, remember that if you’re hearing thunder, you’re in the strike zone. When thunder roars, go indoors!

Like the last few mornings, we’ll start in the low-to-mid 70s (warmer near the coast) and head toward the mid-80s in the afternoon outside of any showers and thunderstorms that develop. Mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to some very muggy mid-90s.

Bottom line: It won’t rain all day, but you’ll want to keep an eye to the sky in case conditions begin to head downhill. Be flexible with your outdoor plans and have a solid plan B in your back pocket.

Sunday’s forecast is essentially a matter of highlighting today’s weather, hitting Cmd+C, then Cmd+V (or Ctrl if you’re on Windows or Linux). Onshore flow will continue with the risk for scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Better rain chances will be found at the coast in the morning before transitioning inland with the seabreeze in the afternoon. Precipitable water values will remain at or above 2″, which will promote the risk for isolated downpours and perhaps flooding concerns if heavy rain ends up repeating over the same area. The diffuse stationary front which has been plaguing our surface pattern for the better part of a week now will wobble a little further southwest for Sunday, which should keep the more widespread rainfall in Georgia. Even still, though, stay flexible with your outdoor plans and be ready to move them inside quickly if storms approach.

Temperatures will once again follow today’s trend: lows in the low-to-mid-70s to start the day, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 80s before showers and thunderstorms set in. Heat indices will run in the mid-90s with the continued summer-esque humidity in place.

This pattern looks to continue into Labor Day and beyond. Aloft, ridging remains firmly in place over the next several days as an upper low cuts off over the Midwest. In the tropics, Tropical Storm Earl, which was named last night, will recurve well away from the US before it becomes a threat to land, while Danielle remains very far out in the Atlantic, an issue for shipping traffic and fish.

Saturday looks to bring another round of scattered showers and storms to the area, possibly as soon as sun-up as storms develop offshore and drift inland within onshore flow. During the day Saturday, a stationary front could wobble back north into the area, which may help focus additional shower and storm development in the afternoon. Unfortunately, the models are still varying quite widely on precipitation coverage during the afternoon and evening hours, so it’s going to be difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where it will rain until trends become apparent tomorrow. With that in mind, I don’t think it is wise to totally shelve outdoor plans, but I would recommend having a strong backup plan in your back pocket ready to go.

Thanks to onshore flow, lows on Saturday will run a couple clicks above normal (low to mid-70s) and highs will run a couple clicks below normal, generally running in the mid-80s in the afternoon ahead of any showers or thunderstorms that may develop. Mix in humidity and it’ll feel like the mid-90s.

We look to stay in this pattern through the Labor Day holiday, with variable rain chances each day driven largely by the positioning of the stalled front and the state of the atmosphere after any convection on the previous day. My advice remains the same: Don’t cancel plans, but be ready to change them.

Well, today was supposed to feature a lull in the shower and storm action, with more isolated coverage…and then it rained for five hours, flooding downtown Charleston again while 3-5″ of rain dumped on Johns Island and West Ashley. This was due to the combination of a stalled front and outflow from a thunderstorm cluster that developed to our northwest. Add in a little upper-level energy and you have a very, very soggy Thursday afternoon. Thankfully, the bulk of today’s rain is over and we should largely dry out overnight (though with fog a distinct possibility).

As we head into Friday, scattered storms remain in the forecast as the ever-present front remains close by. The impact on our weather will largely be driven by how far south it slips tonight into tomorrow. Right now, the expectation is that the greatest concentration of storms will be to our south and west, but I do anticipate that we’ll see a few more downpours tomorrow across the metro area, perhaps again having impacts on the evening commute.

Shower and storm coverage is expected to tick up a little bit more Saturday as onshore flow becomes a little more convergent at the surface. That’ll be the day with the greatest potential for persistent rainfall (at least as currently forecast). There is a little model disagreement with where the surface front will be, though, and so that’ll drive a little uncertainty. Heading into Sunday and Labor Day, rain chances continue to persist, with scattered coverage expected as a coastal trough develops and hangs around. This doesn’t look to be a full-day washout for Labor Day, but be ready to move outdoor activities inside.

With the persistent risk of scattered storms and the ensuing cloud cover, highs should stay in the mid-80s each day after starting in the lower 70s. This is around, if not a touch below, early September normals.

As we head into mid-week and look to round the corner toward Labor Day weekend, we’re going to see a reduction in shower and thunderstorm coverage for a few days as some drier air aloft works in from the north and west. We’ll keep isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast as those probabilities won’t be totally eliminated, particularly near the coast, but we shouldn’t see the sustained flooding rains that have been a concern the past couple days. Areas further inland could even see a rain-free couple days, especially on Thursday as a front clears the area and stalls to our south.

As rain chances diminish, temperatures turn back up to a little above normal as we close out August and enter September. Expect highs around 90° for Wednesday; mix in the plentiful humidity and it’ll feel closer to 100-102°. Thursday will run pretty warm, too, with highs around 90° and heat indices in the upper 90s once again expected. Rain chances begin to tick back up on Friday, and that’ll lead to high temperatures topping out a little lower than the previous couple days, generally in the mid-to-upper 80s.

After a torrential deluge that closed numerous streets both in downtown Charleston as well as North Charleston, we should see a little less coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, but more heavy rainfall will be possible. We could once again see some wet weather for tomorrow morning’s commute as another round of showers and storms skirts up the coast. Then, a more typical afternoon round of scattered showers and storms should fire up along the seabreeze as temperatures are expected to climb to the mid-to-upper 80s. Given the drenched soils from Monday’s rains, it may not take much to cause additional flooding problems on Tuesday where heavier rain falls, so that’ll certainly be something worth watching. Flooding rain, though, should certainly not be as widespread as we saw today.

We’ll continue to see a decrease in coverage as the week goes on, though scattered showers and storms will remain possible each afternoon, with a few stronger storms not out of the question Wednesday into Thursday. An uptick in coverage is possible Friday into Saturday depending on where a cold front stalls out — stay tuned for refinements.

More wet weather is on the way as we remain in a rather unsettled pattern heading into the first days of September (and meteorological fall!)

We’ll likely start Monday with showers and maybe some thunderstorms in the metro area as offshore storms make a run to the coast. Be ready for a somewhat complicated commute due to rain. It’ll be worth watching downtown around high tide just before 10am, too, for the potential for heavy rain to combine with said tide to possibly produce some street flooding. Storms and their associated pockets of heavy rain will continue to spread inland throughout the day. Rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures suppressed to the low 80s.

We stay unsettled heading into Tuesday as a front moves toward the area. Thunderstorms will become likely once again in the afternoon, though temperatures will have a little more time to rebound into the upper 80s. Expect more scattered coverage Wednesday as a little drier air aloft moves in, which will allow temperatures to head into the low 90s in the afternoon ahead of the front. The front moves by Thursday and stalls out to the south, which will help keep moisture in place and the risk for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as we head into the Labor Day weekend. As is customary for late summer, there will not be any day that’s a total washout — just have backup plans for any outdoorsy things you might have going on.