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Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.

Another warm day for Tuesday with most of us staying rain-free

/ May 2, 2022 at 10:06 PM

After Monday became the warmest day so far in 2022 with a high of 87°, Tuesday should come right back and at least match that with another round of warm and muggy weather. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s away from the coast. (I wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures not get below 70° in some spots at the beaches.) Temperatures will warm to the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies ahead of the seabreeze.

With high pressure still in play across the Lowcountry, afternoon shower and storm chances in the Charleston metro should stay at a minimum, but won’t be zero (as Daniel Island found out today with an absolute gullywasher). There will be a better chance of rain along and inland of I-95 where storms will have an easier time getting going thanks to surface temperatures approaching 90°. These storms should fall apart, though, as they move eastward toward the coast in the evening as sinking and cooler air behind the seabreeze circulation will help tamp out convection.

We continue to get warmer as the week goes on, with Thursday looking quite probably like our first 90° day of the year. A cold front could make Friday and the weekend a little unsettled, but will also restore some order to temperatures, bringing them back to early May norms by the end of the weekend.

The week ahead: Summer preview ahead of a late-week front

/ May 1, 2022 at 3:57 PM

The first week of May will serve as a preview of what’s to come as we edge closer and closer to summertime. The mornings will become increasingly muggy with lows bottoming out in the mid-60s on Monday and getting warmer as the week goes on. Highs for much of the week will run in the upper 80s; dewpoints in the upper 60s will make the afternoons feel more like the low 90s. We’ll even see that standard afternoon slight chance of thunderstorms that we know and love in the warm season Monday-Wednesday.

As we head into Friday and the weekend, a storm system will push a stalled cold front into and eventually through the area, elevating our chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, expect the front to be through, cooling us off a little with highs in the low 80s expected, making for what should be a nice Mother’s Day with just a slight chance of a shower or storm in the afternoon.

Warming up over the weekend with continued sunshine

/ April 29, 2022 at 6:12 PM

We’ve got another pretty good-looking weekend coming up. It won’t be quite as clear or as dry as last weekend, but it’ll still more than get the job done as temperatures rise through the 80s throughout the weekend. If sunshine’s your thing, suspect Saturday is going to be a little more in your favor as deep-layered high pressure hangs on for one more day, keeping cloud cover to just some scattered fair weather cumulus ahead of the seabreeze in the afternoon.

We’ll start to see high pressure aloft move out of our area a little bit more on Sunday. This should increase cloud coverage and could even introduce an afternoon shower or storm particularly inland. However, most of us will stay dry as highs head into the mid-80s in the afternoon. Outdoor activities are still go — just remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Looking ahead to next week, we see some of the warmest weather thus far this year in store particularly as we get into midweek and beyond. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will factor into the forecast, especially later in the week as a front gets nearby. But for now, enjoy the weekend as we flip the calendar to May! (Already!)

Friday & the weekend: Warming up; scattered storms Sunday afternoon

/ April 28, 2022 at 6:35 PM

Generally good weather continues as we head into Friday and the weekend. We’ll see high pressure begin to slip offshore, allowing a little more warm and moist air to move into the area as the weekend goes on. This will allow temperatures to reach the low 80s on Saturday and run even warmer on Sunday.

With the influx of moisture and some upper-level energy coming through on Sunday, expect a scattering of showers and thunderstorms particularly in the afternoon. Definitely no washout here, just make sure you’ve got a backup plan for any outdoor activities. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

The warming trend will continue well into next week, with some of the warmest temperatures so far in 2022 expected by mid-week. (But let’s enjoy the weekend first before we dive into another work week!)

Another pretty weather day coming up Thursday, warming trend this weekend

/ April 27, 2022 at 5:29 PM

Thursday continues where today left off, with a seasonably cool morning followed by a comfortably warm afternoon in the upper 70s, right where we should be at this point in April. Humidity will be low once again as dewpoints mix out into the low 40s, yielding relative humidity values approaching 25% during the peak of the afternoon. It’ll be another good day for an outdoor lunch or evening walk as a result — just make sure you’ve got some sunscreen!

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Rest of the work week: More excellent springtime weather

/ April 26, 2022 at 9:23 PM

After a cold front gets through tonight, we’ll see another round of cooler and drier air move into the area to set up a fantastic finish to the work week. Temperatures will run around 10° cooler tomorrow afternoon with plenty of sunshine — an excellent day for outdoor lunch, getting some walking in, or however you wish to be outside. This continues into Thursday, which will be another brilliantly beautiful day with highs once again topping out in the mid-70s. We’ll start to see a little bit of a warming trend commence on Friday as high pressure moves offshore, sending winds more southerly. Still, it’ll be another really nice day with lows in the mid-50s and highs in the upper 70s. The warming trend continues into the weekend, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday and in the mid-80s on Sunday. Enjoy!

Turning warmer on Tuesday with a few storms possible in the afternoon and evening

/ April 25, 2022 at 5:30 PM

We have an even warmer day on tap for Tuesday before storms move in late in the afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front. We’ll start the day in the low 60s before temperatures head to the mid-80s away from the cooler coastline. The warmest it’s been so far this year is 86° on February 23rd and again on February 25; we should tie this tomorrow. (The daily record high of 92°, set in 1989, is safe.)

We’ll be watching a cold front move into the area throughout the day Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front, with brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds the main concern. There’s a low risk that a storm could produce a damaging wind gust or two, but severe weather doesn’t look to be a big concern with tomorrow’s front.

Rain should clear the area with the front by daybreak Wednesday, leaving behind cooler, drier air and overall pleasant weather for the next couple days. High pressure shifts offshore thereafter, and a warming trend will commence heading into the weekend. We could be in the mid-80s again by Sunday with a slight storm chance to go with it. Overall, though, quiet weather remains the rule as we head into the second half of the week.

The week ahead: Aside from Tuesday, more tranquility

/ April 24, 2022 at 4:51 PM

Another mostly nice-looking week lies ahead to close out April, a stark contrast to how this month got started. We start the work week as warm as we’ve been thus far in 2022, with highs topping out in the mid-80s on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The only rain chance will be a shot at some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front passes by. These don’t look like they’ll be terribly organized, keeping the severe threat to a minimum.

Once the front is through overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, we’ll see temperatures cap out around the mid-70s Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with very few clouds to speak of. A warming trend commences in earnest Friday as high pressure begins to slip back offshore, and we may very well start May off on a warm note on Sunday with highs in the mid-80s.

Overall, we largely continue to be spoiled by great weather (though we could still use some more rain given the ongoing drought). Enjoy!

Sunday: Another mostly sunny and warm day

/ April 23, 2022 at 6:09 PM

We have another warm — and even slightly muggy — day ahead of weather as temperatures head back into the low 80s once again. Onshore flow will help keep dewpoints somewhat elevated, putting a touch of muggy into the air, but it’s nothing terribly out of the ordinary for this point in the year. We may contend with some patches of fog in the morning, but these should mix out shortly after sunrise.

One potential fly in the ointment to this forecast is something we saw this morning and could repeat itself tomorrow: the risk for a very isolated shower. The convection-allowing models have a few areas of low-end reflectivity coming ashore between 8am-12pm. This is likely the model depicting a somewhat more agitated cumulus field within an area of low-level convergence on the periphery of the surface high. However, I bring it up because this morning’s cumulus field did, in fact, toss some raindrops on me as I was doing my morning walk. So, we’ll see. All that said, though, if you see a raindrop or two tomorrow, don’t be totally surprised, then go buy a lottery ticket. It might be your lucky day.

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Brilliant weekend of weather incoming

/ April 22, 2022 at 5:26 PM

Liked today? Good, because we have more of that coming up this weekend as high pressure remains in firm control of our weather. We’ll see some clouds from time to time, but other than that, expect widespread sunshine across the region and seasonably warm temperatures around 80° both days (cooler near the coast). Pack the sunscreen if you’re going to be outside!

Looking ahead, temperatures will turn even warmer to start the work week. Tuesday could feature the warmest temperatures we’ve seen this year, reaching or even topping late February, when we hit 86° on the 23rd and 25th. Rain chances return for mid-week, but that looks to depart in time for next Friday, too. Can’t get mad at that.