Some pretty heavy rain for any time of year, much less November, is in store for Thursday. Deep tropical moisture will continue to blanket the area ahead of a cold front. At the same time, Tropical Storm Eta will move across northern Florida and into the Atlantic, weakening while undergoing a post-tropical transition. Be ready for the potential for flooding due to heavy rain, especially around times of high tide (4:54am, 5:10pm). Some tidal flooding cannot be ruled out, either.
Temperatures are just not going to move much tomorrow with rain expected to be in place for a fair bit of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 70s after a low in the mid-70s, which would absolutely destroy the record high minimum temperature of 68° set in 1975. Our lows have been rewriting the record books for the last few days due to such abnormal warmth. (A normal November low based on 1981-2010 climatology is 48°!) Fortunately, there is some relief in sight with the cold front.
Periods of heavy rain look to continue for the next few days as moisture from Tropical Storm Eta in the Gulf continues to overspread the area with a stalling cold front to our west. For Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms continue to overspread the area throughout the day. It’ll be muggy, with highs once again topping out around 80° after starting out near 70°, which may threaten record high minimum temperatures once again.
As always, when heavy rainfall is in the forecast, we need to watch around times of high tide for particularly acute flooding in downtown Charleston. High tides will be at 3:55am and 4:13pm on Wednesday. Given continued onshore flow, the Wednesday afternoon high tide could tip briefly into coastal flood stage as well, so that will be something to watch carefully.
Expect a bit more in the way of cloud cover and showers for Tuesday as a moisture plume courtesy of Tropical Storm Eta begins to spread northward. Temperatures will remain rather warm for this time of year. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s to low 70s (especially near the coast). Temperatures will top out in the low 80s, with periods of cooling where showers develop. Shower chances will continue to ramp up with time on Tuesday, with thunderstorms becoming likely as we head into Wednesday.
Much quieter weather today as Isaias has long since departed the Charleston area. Temperatures top out in the low 90s, but the humidity will feel closer to the low 100s. There is a slight chance of an isolated PM shower or thunderstorm on the seabreeze as it advances inland this afternoon. A trough of low pressure aloft will keep things a little stormy each afternoon as we go into the rest of the week.
National surface analysis with satellite overlay at 2PM June 17, 2020.
We have been in quite the cool spell this week as an upper-level low pressure system in concert with a stalled front have kept clouds and showers in the forecast. The cool temperatures have been rather remarkable for June, with legitimate hoodie weather the past couple days as several record low maximum temperatures were achieved both at Charleston International Airport and downtown Charleston. Summer’s coming back, though…
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing with it some brief heavy rain and perhaps the risk for a damaging wind gust or two through early Thursday morning. This is not the high-end risk we have seen in a few times in the past few weeks — not by a long shot! — but you may want to have a flashlight at bedside just in case of a brief power outage overnight as some sporadic wind damage does appear possible.
We’ll broach 80° tomorrow despite increasing cloud cover as a cold front approaches the area from the west with our main rain chance this week. There is a small chance that showers could develop near the coast in the late afternoon hours, but the best rain chances arrive overnight into Thursday morning with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, severe weather is looking rather unlikely, though a few strong wind gusts will be possible. Will have more on this rain threat tomorrow as timings become more apparent — stay tuned.
Breezes will turn southerly on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, allowing temperatures to rise near to near 80° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Humidity will be a touch higher, but you probably won’t notice — should be another really nice day. Try to enjoy!
Tuesday will be a mostly sunny day in-between cold fronts. Winds will turn from the south to the southwest throughout the day, allowing temperatures to swing from the mid-50s to around 80° in the afternoon. No weather hazards to speak of for Tuesday, thankfully — business as “usual” (by 2020 standards, anyway).
Another rough morning is in the cards with a squall line expected to move through the area. Said squall line may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes — a couple of which may become strong.
The squall line should be through the area by 11am, according to the latest NWS briefing. This seems reasonable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was out of here a lot sooner than that.
Some overnight severe weather is not out of the cards, but it increasingly appears that the threat for severe weather in the Tri-County area will arrive around sunrise. Still, don’t go to bed without having weather warnings that can wake you.
Flooding may be a concern, particularly around the 7:12am high tide.
Once the squall line clears the area, winds will shift northwest and we should see at least some partial breaks in the clouds before the day is over.
