Meteorological winter begins tomorrow, running from December 1 through February 28, 2022. It sure won’t feel like it, though: temperatures will warm to near 70° on Wednesday, and then peek into the low to mid-70s on Thursday and Friday. We’ll have some cloud cover associated with a weak disturbance aloft Wednesday, but other than that, expect quite a bit of sunshine over the next few days.

The only weather concern looks to be a small risk for minor coastal flooding beginning with Friday morning’s high tide as we head toward the new moon phase. So far, the NWS forecast has that tide peaking just shy of 7’, which is the minor coastal flooding criteria. Peeking a little further down the road, guidance indicates that Saturday morning’s high tide may scrape that 7’ threshold as well. So far, though, it certainly does not appear to be a repeat of the last new moon, which brought us top-15 tides during the first week of November.

Finally, we bid adieu to the 2021 hurricane season, which was another extremely busy season in terms of named storms (21). For the second consecutive year, the primary storm name list was exhausted — but we did not have to crack open the supplemental list, at least. Once again, our luck has held here — aside from the quickly-developing Tropical Storm Danny and the nocturnal tornado outbreak associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, it was another rather quiet season for the Lowcountry, and for that I am grateful.

After topping out at 72° today away from the cooler coastline, we’re back into the 70s for a couple more days before a cold front swings through for Friday, allowing high pressure to wedge into the area for the weekend. We’ll actually see a few clouds on Wednesday before an increase in cloud cover Thursday in response to the cold front approaching the area. There’s a tiny chance that we may see a shower or two, but the relative dearth of moisture should keep the vast majority of us rain-free. Cool high pressure builds back into the area on Friday, keeping high temperatures well into sweater weather territory in the low 60s in the afternoon. Overall, not a bad way to close out the last work week before Thanksgiving.

The rest of the work week will be on the mild side as high pressure slips offshore ahead of a cold front. Wednesday will start a little on the cloudy side, which will act to keep lows from falling too far below the mid-40s in most spots. The sun will come back in the afternoon and yield another pleasant day with highs in the mid-70s.

Thereafter, a cold front approaches the area Thursday into Friday, bringing some scattered showers to the area beginning Thursday afternoon. A thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out, either, but severe weather is not expected. Temperatures start in the mid-50s and top out in the mid-70s on Thursday. Friday starts even warmer, perhaps in the low 60s, before showers depart and cooler, drier air begins working into the area. Even still, expect highs in the mid-70s on Friday.

Don’t let the sweaters slip too far away — another cooldown is in the cards for the weekend with a series of reinforcing cold fronts into next week.

There is a small risk for some minor coastal flooding early Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise, this event appears to be finally in the books. This was a brutal stretch: we’ve had some degree of coastal flooding each day since November 3, with four consecutive days of major flooding between November 5-8. Three top-15 tides were set, including Sunday morning’s high tide at 8.51’ which was good for tenth highest on record.

After a couple days of 70s and sunshine, cold air damming will begin to ooze into the area on Wednesday, kicking up cloud cover and keeping temperatures down into the mid-60s. It’s the first really good sweater weather day of the year, and the last fully rain-free day until Sunday. Thereafter, a storm system will affect our area from Thursday into the weekend. The wedge will remain intact through the rest of the work week, keeping gusty northeasterly winds — which could get as strong as gale force over the waters on Friday — in the area and cloud cover in place. Overrunning moisture will help contribute to a few showers on Thursday with more coverage Friday depending on where low pressure develops offshore. This, in turn, will help keep temperatures suppressed at or below 60° for Thursday and Friday. The last time we had a high below 60° was April 2nd, when the high topped out at a balmy 53°.

Wednesday will be another pleasant weather day. We’re going to get off to a chilly start with lows in the 40s across the area away from the locally warmer coastline. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s, and it’ll feel good in the sun.

As we head into Thursday afternoon and evening, we will want to watch the risk for heavy rain with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but the forecast wind profiles are such that a tornado cannot be totally ruled out. We’ll need to see how much instability can develop — the less instability, the better. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

The upper-level low that will help to drive Thursday’s severe threat will linger into Friday, keeping clouds and perhaps a few showers in the forecast. Temperatures won’t top out much higher than 70° on Friday afternoon.

Good news, though: The weekend looks good with sweater weather on Saturday, and Halloween is very much game on with picture-perfect weather to close out October.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the work week ahead of a cold front swinging through on Friday. Highs look to return to the 80s for Wednesday and beyond, though just barely. Lows will be creeping up more noticeably; we’ll wake up to low 50s on Wednesday, near 60° on Thursday, and in the mid-60s on Friday.

We stay rain-free through Thursday, and it’s probable that you’ll stay dry on Friday, too, with just a little moisture available for the front to squeeze out a few isolated showers in the afternoon. Overall, our weather pattern remains relatively quiet heading into the weekend, but there’s no sign of another good shot of cold air just yet as the temperature trend continues to favor above-normal temperatures heading into next week. (It is nice to dry out a bit, though!)

The temperature curve is very much respecting Wednesday as Hump Day with highs topping out in the upper 80s, as high as they’ll get this week before gradually coming down for Thursday and Friday as a dry cold front sinks south across the area. Mornings will remain a little on the warmer side, with upper 60s to low 70s common across the metro area, warmest near the beaches and coolest inland.

We’ll remain rain-free despite a front coming through Thursday as moisture remains in limited supply. In fact, the first appreciable rain chance we’ve seen in more than a week will probably arrive on Monday or Tuesday, and even then right now the chances are pretty slim.

The tropics remain busy as Hurricane Sam continues to churn in the Atlantic. There are also two areas of interest in the far eastern Atlantic that are very likely to exhaust the primary name list for the second consecutive season, but neither those areas nor Sam are a threat to the Carolinas as we move into October.

Warmth and humidity continue their return to the weather picture for the rest of this work week. We’ll see temperatures at or a little above normal as more tropical air works back into the area, increasing the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A disturbance in the Gulf — which has a low (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days — could help to enhance rainfall across the area as it moves northeast across parts of Florida and Georgia later this week. By Friday, though, we begin to see a little cooler and drier high pressure move into the area from the north, helping to put the kibosh on more substantial rain chances heading into the weekend.

There will also be a risk for minor coastal flooding especially as we head later into the week as winds look to turn a little more onshore. We will be close each evening for the next few evenings, so keep an ear out for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

We start meteorological fall on a wet note. A cold front will drive southward across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and that will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms as it pushes through and eventually stalls to our south. Behind the front, we will see some rather refreshing cooler and drier air begin to filter into the area. Dewpoints will drop starting Thursday, and by Friday, they should be in the mid-60s as opposed to the mid-70s. It will feel a lot more comfortable, that’s for sure, especially after a pretty muggy August.

While we can never totally rule out a popup shower or storm in mid-August, high pressure both at the surface and aloft should put the kibosh on precipitation as we get over the hump and finish out the work week. The forecast is pretty standard each day — highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-70s (running closer to 80° near the coast, including in Downtown Charleston).

We certainly can use the drying time; so far we’ve had 18.04″ of rain this summer, a surplus of just over 3″ (3.01″, to be exact). That’s good for 24th on record to this point. The summer of 1973 continues to reign supreme in the rainfall department, though, with 35.33″ recorded at the airport from June 1 to August 10. (It could always be worse.)

As we get closer to the weekend, we’ll see rain chances begin to head back up as deeper tropical moisture looks to work back into the area.