The temperature curve is very much respecting Wednesday as Hump Day with highs topping out in the upper 80s, as high as they’ll get this week before gradually coming down for Thursday and Friday as a dry cold front sinks south across the area. Mornings will remain a little on the warmer side, with upper 60s to low 70s common across the metro area, warmest near the beaches and coolest inland.
We’ll remain rain-free despite a front coming through Thursday as moisture remains in limited supply. In fact, the first appreciable rain chance we’ve seen in more than a week will probably arrive on Monday or Tuesday, and even then right now the chances are pretty slim.
The tropics remain busy as Hurricane Sam continues to churn in the Atlantic. There are also two areas of interest in the far eastern Atlantic that are very likely to exhaust the primary name list for the second consecutive season, but neither those areas nor Sam are a threat to the Carolinas as we move into October.
Warmth and humidity continue their return to the weather picture for the rest of this work week. We’ll see temperatures at or a little above normal as more tropical air works back into the area, increasing the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A disturbance in the Gulf — which has a low (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days — could help to enhance rainfall across the area as it moves northeast across parts of Florida and Georgia later this week. By Friday, though, we begin to see a little cooler and drier high pressure move into the area from the north, helping to put the kibosh on more substantial rain chances heading into the weekend.
There will also be a risk for minor coastal flooding especially as we head later into the week as winds look to turn a little more onshore. We will be close each evening for the next few evenings, so keep an ear out for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
We start meteorological fall on a wet note. A cold front will drive southward across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and that will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms as it pushes through and eventually stalls to our south. Behind the front, we will see some rather refreshing cooler and drier air begin to filter into the area. Dewpoints will drop starting Thursday, and by Friday, they should be in the mid-60s as opposed to the mid-70s. It will feel a lot more comfortable, that’s for sure, especially after a pretty muggy August.
While we can never totally rule out a popup shower or storm in mid-August, high pressure both at the surface and aloft should put the kibosh on precipitation as we get over the hump and finish out the work week. The forecast is pretty standard each day — highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-70s (running closer to 80° near the coast, including in Downtown Charleston).
We certainly can use the drying time; so far we’ve had 18.04″ of rain this summer, a surplus of just over 3″ (3.01″, to be exact). That’s good for 24th on record to this point. The summer of 1973 continues to reign supreme in the rainfall department, though, with 35.33″ recorded at the airport from June 1 to August 10. (It could always be worse.)
As we get closer to the weekend, we’ll see rain chances begin to head back up as deeper tropical moisture looks to work back into the area.
There’s a reason we tell y’all to stay tuned to forecast updates, and that’s because sometimes things change. In this case, it’s changing for the better thanks to a front that pushed a little further south and a trough moving a click or two more eastward.
We’ll get back into a warming trend for the rest of the work week as the mid-level trough that’s been keeping us quite unsettled yields to a little more ridging over the next few days. This will, in turn, help suppress the more widespread shower and thunderstorm development we’ve seen to start the week. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily each afternoon as daytime heating and the seabreeze kick in. Heavy rain will be possible within the strongest storms, particularly on Wednesday as deep tropical moisture remains in place. We’ll see this deeper moisture shunted a little further south getting into Thursday and Friday, cutting the heavy rain threat a little bit more, but it’s summer — an isolated downpour or two just cannot be ruled out.
As mentioned earlier, temperatures are going to warm up, and we’ll be back into the low 90s by Thursday. Mix in some humidity and it’s going to feel like the low 100s, so make sure you’re getting enough water and shade if you’re outdoors in the peak of the afternoon.
The rest of the work week will feature generally isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of a cold front that will stall in the area for Friday into Saturday, bringing greater coverage of unsettled weather (and possibly a low risk of severe weather on Friday). Thereafter, said front introduces a good bit of uncertainty into the forecast.
A Bermuda high will stay in force for Wednesday into Thursday. This will generally keep onshore flow in place, allowing occasional showers and storms to stream into the area from the Atlantic particularly in the morning hours before the seabreeze focuses additional showers and storms inland during the afternoon. Reasonably good atmospheric moisture is in place, allowing a few showers or storms to perhaps generate some locally heavy rainfall, especially where outflow boundaries collide. Temperatures will generally run in the upper 80s away from the coast.
As we get into Friday, a cold front will approach from the northwest in association with a trough of low pressure aloft. This will focus more numerous showers and thunderstorms particularly as we get into the evening. Model soundings suggest some wind shear sufficient for organizing a strong to severe storm or two, so we’ll want to keep an eye on these details as they evolve. Additionally, the Gulf will be open for business with the trough helping to draw more moisture into the area (precipitable water values exceeding 2″ for the geeks out there), so areas of heavy rainfall will certainly be possible. Ahead of the front, temperatures will still flirt with 90° before showers and storms increase in coverage.
Forecast becomes more uncertain heading into the Fourth
The aforementioned cold front will stall out somewhere nearby on Saturday, and this is where a fair bit of forecast uncertainty begins to come into play. Depending on where the front sets up, we could have a warm and fairly dry Fourth, or we might keep some more humidity, showers, and thunderstorms in the forecast. Today’s global model runs were trending a little drier, but one should never put much faith in a stalling cold front in our neck of the woods in July. My advice right now: Stay tuned to forecast updates as the details flesh out a little more.
A cold front will pass through the area and stall out to the southeast as high pressure wedges down a little bit from the north. This will generate a bit of onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the mid-80s through the end of the work week. This will also combine with enhanced astronomical tides thanks to Thursday’s full moon to cause some minor to moderate coastal flooding each evening through at least Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Friday, with the best chances coming along with the inland-moving seabreeze especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. By Friday, we’ll see an increased chance of thunderstorms as high pressure to the northeast gives way, allowing a trough of low pressure offshore to migrate inland and provide a sharper focus for precipitation to form.
With such saturated ground from a pretty rainy June thus far, we’ll want to watch any areas of heavy rain that develop for an isolated flooding threat. This doubly goes for times of the evening high tides due to the aforementioned king tides. With that in mind, the good news is that it won’t rain all day, every day, and not everyone will see rain every day, either.
After another night of heavy rain and flooding (with some hail and wind damage mixed in), we thankfully get a few days to dry out as drier high pressure builds south across the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will run a degree or two either side of normal for the rest of the work week. Humidity will be rather low for this time of year, and so heat indices will not run too much warmer than the air temperature. Still, “normal” for mid-June means upper 80s to low 90s, so it won’t exactly be cool. But any time we can get a drier heat for a few days during a Charleston summer, we will take it.
More importantly, we will stay rain-free for several days. It’s hard to believe that we were talking about a developing drought just two weeks ago, but here we are after a couple extraordinarily soggy days being extremely pleased to see the rain take a quick break. We look to stay dry through Saturday before tropical moisture once again infiltrates the area beginning Sunday.
We’ve got one more day of thunderstorm chances this week before a cold front sweeps them out of here by Thursday, setting us up for a fine end to the work week and a nice weekend.
First, though, we need to handle Wednesday. Wednesday is going to be a tricky day in the forecast; scattered showers and thunderstorms certainly seem possible, but the overall coverage of storms is less certain. It appears that thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast will rob our area of moisture, which should keep coverage and intensity a tick lower than we’ve seen over the past couple days. Still, a strong to severe storm or two cannot be totally ruled out, either.
What is certain about Wednesday is that it’ll be another warm and muggy day. Temperatures will head into the mid-80s once again, with heat indices running around 90°.
The cold front swings through overnight Wednesday/early Thursday morning, and the airmass begins to change in response. We’ll see partly cloudy skies on Thursday with highs topping out in the low 80s with a little lower humidity. This airmass really begins to take hold later Thursday into Friday, when temperatures will start in the upper 50s and warm to comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s with lower humidity. This nice weather hangs around into the weekend, particularly on Saturday. Enjoy it — we don’t have too many more of these “cool” snaps left until later this year!
