Thursday looks to be much the same as the previous few days: Temperatures in the low 90s, heat indices in the low 100s, and mostly rain-free conditions (with the disclaimer that a stray storm can never be ruled out this time of year — ask Goose Creek and Summerville all about that today). High pressure continues its firm grip on our weather both at the surface and aloft, and this looks to continue for a few more days before a front and enhanced tropical moisture moving into the area ahead of Tropical Storm Fred begin to increase rain chances to start next week.

While we can never totally rule out a popup shower or storm in mid-August, high pressure both at the surface and aloft should put the kibosh on precipitation as we get over the hump and finish out the work week. The forecast is pretty standard each day — highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-70s (running closer to 80° near the coast, including in Downtown Charleston).

We certainly can use the drying time; so far we’ve had 18.04″ of rain this summer, a surplus of just over 3″ (3.01″, to be exact). That’s good for 24th on record to this point. The summer of 1973 continues to reign supreme in the rainfall department, though, with 35.33″ recorded at the airport from June 1 to August 10. (It could always be worse.)

As we get closer to the weekend, we’ll see rain chances begin to head back up as deeper tropical moisture looks to work back into the area.

Tuesday promises another day of isolated showers and storms along and ahead of the seabreeze as highs top out right around 90°. Humidity will make it feel a little closer to 99-100° as the seabreeze moves past during the afternoon. Otherwise, there’s not too much to write home about as ridging of high pressure aloft and at the surface persists.

Mercifully, we are headed into a period of relatively normal weather for the next few days. Atlantic high pressure will build in at the surface, and subtropical ridging will move in aloft to click the pattern back into a more standard summertime configuration. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s each afternoon (though the humidity will make it feel closer to 100°), and the inland-advancing seabreeze will be the main focus for any shower or thunderstorm development. Not everyone will see rain every day, and it won’t rain all day at any one location. Just mind the afternoon heat and enjoy the relief if and when you get it.

So far, Sunday has run a little drier than previous days without a better forcing mechanism to kick off showers and thunderstorms. While a shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, most of us should stay dry today as highs head into the upper 80s. Humidity will make it feel closer to the low 90s, especially right in the wake of the seabreeze passage this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, and we should still see a decent breeze at the beaches throughout the day. All in all, not too shabby for the last Sunday in June. (Hard to believe, isn’t it?)

Typical June weather continues for Tuesday. Temperatures will head up into the low 90s in the afternoon as westerly winds keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast. We’ll want to keep an eye on an upper-level disturbance as it swings through; this could help a few storms to get going in the afternoon, especially if the seabreeze can make some inland progress. There will be enough instability to support storms if enough lift is realized, and dry air in the mid-levels could portend a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. So, we’ll keep an eye on this, but it is more likely than not we get through Tuesday rain-free in a vast majority of spots — good news as we dry out from this past weekend’s deluge.

Thursday is looking quite good with high pressure beginning to assert greater control over our weather. The periods of showers we saw over the past couple days will be a thing of the past, and temperatures will remain comfortably warm with onshore flow. After starting the morning in the 60s, expect highs in the low 80s away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s keep heat indices in check, making for a nice mid-May day.

The upcoming work week will feature temperatures right in line with what we would expect from the third week in May with low-to-mid-80s quite common away from the coast. Humidity will be creeping up a little bit beyond Monday, which will be felt primarily through slightly warmer low temperatures in the low 60s. Keep the sprinklers on standby throughout the week as you’re going to need them with dry weather expected for the next seven days thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft keeping a lid on afternoon convection. This will expand on this spring’s rainfall deficit, which stands at 2.19″ at publish time. (We are hanging on to a 0.66″ surplus for the year, but this should be erased by the end of this week.)

As we reach the weekend, we’ll start to see the heat kick up a notch as the ridge aloft strengthens. The first 90° temperature at the airport in 2021 should be achieved by Sunday; if this ends up being the case, it’d be the latest first 90° day since 2005. Dewpoints in the low 60s will keep heat indices in check for now, but it’s only a matter of time before the humidity begins to kick in.

Expect a bit more in the way of cloud cover and showers for Tuesday as a moisture plume courtesy of Tropical Storm Eta begins to spread northward. Temperatures will remain rather warm for this time of year. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s to low 70s (especially near the coast). Temperatures will top out in the low 80s, with periods of cooling where showers develop. Shower chances will continue to ramp up with time on Tuesday, with thunderstorms becoming likely as we head into Wednesday.

Fall’s hiatus continues this week as we sit between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Eta to the south. Monday looks to be the driest day of the week with just a slight chance of showers throughout the day. Rain chances head up into Wednesday as tropical moisture associated with Eta gets drawn up into the area by a frontal system approaching from the west. This front looks to stall out by the end of the week, keeping a chance for showers in the forecast through the weekend. (Eta could make the weekend a little more wet and windy, so consider that forecast somewhat low-confidence at the moment.)

Temperatures will remain rather warm for early to mid-November. NWS notes that some record high minimum temperatures could fall this week, with lows in the 70s forecasted especially Wednesday and Thursday. (For contrast, the typical high temperature this time of year is around 71-72°.) Highs will generally run in the upper 70s to low 80s, roughly 8-10° above normal for this time of year.

If you’re looking for a shift back into Fall, this week ain’t it. While we may cool off as we get into the following week, long-range guidance continues to hit on above-normal temperatures remaining the norm (as one would expect in a La Niña winter, which tends to trend warmer and drier in the Southeast).